Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Frost HoIIow]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure I'd called over a foot of rain in 36 hours at Honister Pass an average Autumn Day. Yes we've had much worse flooding.. but the rain totals have been far than average. Thankfully the river levels and groundwater levels were relatively normal before the deluge..  but we now have the foundations which can turn an average Autumn Day into one that easily causes flooding..

Will have to get used to media sensationalist commentary about any fairly wet weather in the days ahead given the build up to COP26!..

Yes just wait for the guilt tripping. Don't drive, don't fly, don't wash, don't eat meat, don't breathe, don't live.

 

 

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Can we stick to the models please as winter is over a month away

"winter is over"  

 

 

I'm kidding, agreed, let's get autumn put to bed first (sorry for the misquote, just getting psyched up for when this is posted 20 times a day in December ). 

[markw2680]

Just now, Griff said:

"winter is over"  

 

 

I'm kidding, agreed, let's get autumn put to bed first (sorry for the misquote, just getting psyched up for when this is posted 20 times a day in December ). 

Yes normally a few of those remarks knocking about in December when the odds on northerly blast is blasted away last minute to a nice moist south westerly.

anyway I better hush now before I get blasted by admin 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Wilmer bros back! where you been all Summer?

Edited October 28, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wilmer bros back! where you been all Summer?

Iv been lurking in the background

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wilmer bros back! where you been all Summer?

Hahah yes mate lol I only come out to play when it's either thundery or winter lol 

[markw2680]

7 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Hahah yes mate lol I only come out to play when it's either thundery or winter lol 

Or damp and foggy which is all you will get down there in the valleys of wellesbourne

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Yes normally a few of those remarks knocking about in December when the odds on northerly blast is blasted away last minute to a nice moist south westerly.

anyway I better hush now before I get blasted by admin 

You're all good, that's why I quoted into this thread instead

[Weather Enthusiast91]

5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

The worst thing about 2021, was the dull and cloudy spring and summer. It was beyond bleak down south. Possibly one of the worst years for lack of sunshine. 

Yes, I have been reading that the south in particular have had it pretty bad this summer.

In the West Midlands, we didn't really get that much rain but it was often cloudy; particularly August. Overall, quite a forgettable summer.

 

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[SunSean]

Today was possibly the nicest day in the South East for October this year. Mainly sunny from sunrise to sunset and looking at the satellite radar, where I live, we just missed out on the massive sheet of grey thankfully! 

[Summer8906]

18 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

2021 has certainly been a topsy turvy year for our seasons.

We had our October back in May, August in September, and September in October. Will November actually feel like November? We shall have to wait and see!

Personally I'm hoping it will feel like a mix between a good October and an unusually sunny January - but sadly I doubt we'll get that.

Wouldn't rate this October as September like, though - mild, yes, but too dull for September.

Edited October 29, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

16 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

The worst thing about 2021, was the dull and cloudy spring and summer. It was beyond bleak down south. Possibly one of the worst years for lack of sunshine. 

And why we need to make up for it with a much sunnier than average winter. Sadly I don't think we'll get it, as northwestern European winters are not known for sunshine. Perhaps it's nowcasting, but I'm now expecting something somewhat milder, somewhat wetter and somewhat duller than average - but not as extreme as 2019/20 or 2013/14 with one of the three months, probably Feb, dry or very dry. Dec a mix of mild/wet and cold/frosty; Jan probably a mild/wet/windfest but drier end, and dry settled Feb leading into an early spring. Just gut feeling mind.

Edited October 29, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

The very worst type of airmass today, and something I personally detest with a passion. Like a cross between Tm and rPm, with the worst features of each: dull with low cloud, very humid and muggy, and frequent, albeit short-duration, downpours. Reminiscent somewhat of bad mountain weather - but in the lowlands.

The first of the five daily deluges of the next few days passed through overnight, each lowering the temperature very, very slightly. Is it really worth it for a one- or two-day cold spell? What NW Europe does so well; active frontal systems that make little difference to the airmass or temperature. Very envious of sensible climates such as those of Central Europe or the northeastern United States in which it can go straight from very mild to very cold in one go (or vice-versa), with an active, dramatic but short-duration cold front. No messing around... I still recall a particularly extreme example at this time of year, in, I think, 2005, when New York was 20C one day and 1C the next. Then after a few days it bounced back up to near 20C again. Now that's what I call an interesting climate...

Edited October 29, 2021 by Summer8906

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Still some disagreement over Sunday, GFS sticking to a washout every run, where as BBC and FAX move the rain through by 11am, if anything quicker on todays updates, too quick in fact that the showers from the west earlier too

for a reasonable day on Sunday, need in between GFS and FAX

[Summer8906]

Weather did improve yesterday afternoon, bright and relatively warm for the time of year after the very unpleasant morning.

The second of the daily, it seems, frontal systems moved through early in the morning but this time we had a sharp clearance so conditions have rapidly improved.

Edited October 30, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

15 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Still some disagreement over Sunday, GFS sticking to a washout every run, where as BBC and FAX move the rain through by 11am, if anything quicker on todays updates, too quick in fact that the showers from the west earlier too

for a reasonable day on Sunday, need in between GFS and FAX

Given it's the dreaded Winter Time tomorrow any rain needs to clear really early! A 2pm (winter time) clearance for instance will now only give three usable hours. Compare that to June when it can rain all day until 5pm and you still get four and a half hours of usable daylight - we moan about summer unsettled weather, but overall it's perhaps less bad.

Mind you as it's a Sunday and I don't have commitments I'm going to leave the clocks as they are, on BST, for tomorrow, and probably Monday too when I'm home-working. Will help psychologically.

Edited October 30, 2021 by Summer8906

[topo]

Rainiest October on record in Bergen

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

57 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Given it's the dreaded Winter Time tomorrow any rain needs to clear really early! A 2pm (winter time) clearance for instance will now only give three usable hours. Compare that to June when it can rain all day until 5pm and you still get four and a half hours of usable daylight - we moan about summer unsettled weather, but overall it's perhaps less bad.

Mind you as it's a Sunday and I don't have commitments I'm going to leave the clocks as they are, on BST, for tomorrow, and probably Monday too when I'm home-working. Will help psychologically.

BBC even quicker again today, cleared by 9am? but it does mean showers from the west earlier too, so could be crappy afternoon

GFS 5 or so hours later/slower, washout for many away from Wales on 06Z

[Summer8906]

22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

BBC even quicker again today, cleared by 9am? but it does mean showers from the west earlier too, so could be crappy afternoon

GFS 5 or so hours later/slower, washout for many away from Wales on 06Z

Looks like tomorrow is perhaps the worst day of the entire unsettled spell, Monday almost as bad but then better from Tuesday.

Looks like it's then back to nondescript mild/dry/cloudy after the end of next week according to 06Z GFS. To be honest I'm not fussed by that in November - what would be ideal for me personally is a quiet spell of weather for a couple of weeks before the 20th which I always see as the demarcation point between autumn proper (leaves still on trees) and the bleaker and grimmer early winter season, and perhaps the most difficult few weeks of the year.

Edited October 30, 2021 by Summer8906

[AderynCoch]

Not much cloud around today in Slovakia:

[Summer8906]

2 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Not much cloud around today in Slovakia:

I get the impression Central Europe has very nice autumns. Similar temps to the southern UK but much sunnier and drier.

Autumn tends to exaggerate the normal NW-SE divide across Europe, whereas I get the impression that in spring, Central Europe is no drier, and perhaps at times wetter, than southern England - due to more northerly or easterly setups. Spring seems to be the 'great equaliser' in climate, with many temperate areas experiencing not dissimilar conditions.

[stainesbloke]

58 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Not much cloud around today in Slovakia:

Similar here in the Czech Republic. Been a gorgeous spell of weather for the last fortnight, sunny days and chilly nights with a touch of frost. Even had some fog, though not enough for my liking. Had some beautiful sunrises and sunsets.
All change next week as the Atlantic systems make in-roads, with spells of rain.

[AderynCoch]

On 30/10/2021 at 13:19, Summer8906 said:

I get the impression Central Europe has very nice autumns. Similar temps to the southern UK but much sunnier and drier.

Autumn tends to exaggerate the normal NW-SE divide across Europe, whereas I get the impression that in spring, Central Europe is no drier, and perhaps at times wetter, than southern England - due to more northerly or easterly setups. Spring seems to be the 'great equaliser' in climate, with many temperate areas experiencing not dissimilar conditions.

I'd say autumn is more the 'great equaliser' than spring, as the transition between summer and winter tends to be slower and less erratic than vice-versa.

Surprisingly, October is one of the driest months of the year at Bratislava Airport, at least according to the following map (the blue blocks represent the cumuluative totals for each month so far this year):

 

 

There's increased precipitation during the warmer months (due to thunderstorm activity), before dropping off in October and increasing again in November. This could be due to an unusual number of dry Octobers in the period 1981-2010 but I really don't know. It's certainly been a dry October this year though - about 15mm, nearly all of which fell on one day (the 6th). Today is the 17th consecutive day without rain (it looks like the dry run will end on Monday night). 2021 is probably going to be quite a dry year on the whole.

October's been very sunny too. We'll probably end up with 200 hours by the close of play tomorrow:

 

Temperature-wise it's been rather chilly for most of the month, though the two warm spikes mean it won't finish too far from the average:

(black line = average daily mean, red/blue shading = above/below average for 2021)

 

 

Edited October 30, 2021 by AderynCoch

[TheOgre]

2 hours ago, topo said:

Rainiest October on record in Bergen

 

Why have they put Bergen, Florida?

[Summer8906]

29 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

Why have they put Bergen, Florida?

I had to look that up, it looks like Florida is an area in Bergen.

I have to admit that on first glance, I thought it was referring to a town called Bergen in Florida (given the US's tendency to name towns after European locations. such a name doesn't seem unusual) but it did seem very wet for Florida and also wouldn't explain the article being in Norwegian and from a poster located in Norway.