Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Anthony Burden]

The coming winter will undoubtedly rest on pressure rises in the Atlantic.La Nina /easterly QBO /SSW 

will all have a major influence.But with out a doubt pressure rises in the Atlantic have been spoken 

about in the meteorologist circle for some time due to factors above,an intriguing winter coming 

up.

 

[TM1400]

16 minutes ago, TM1400 said:

Ah here 2006 only had cool nights, days were mostly normal but nights were cool, near freezing or just above. Think 2012 was better for a cooler start to November here where I am, also I had October snow in 2012. And here it looks like the beginning to November 2012 was better than 2006, and went below freezing at one point. Also end of November 2012 was quite cold here too

Also November 2016 was also a cool start to November here in recent times for me anyway.  Days were cold/cool nights near freezing but 2012 had colder nights right at beginning of November. 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Anthony Burden said:

The coming winter will undoubtedly rest on pressure rises in the Atlantic.La Nina /easterly QBO /SSW 

will all have a major influence.But with out a doubt pressure rises in the Atlantic have been spoken 

about in the meteorologist circle for some time due to factors above,an intriguing winter coming 

up.

 

Warm SSTs over Atlantic also a key factor that should promote ridge development.

[MP-R]

On 26/10/2021 at 22:30, TM1400 said:

Also November 2016 was also a cool start to November here in recent times for me anyway.  Days were cold/cool nights near freezing but 2012 had colder nights right at beginning of November. 

Yes good point - November 2016 (how could I forget), exactly ten years after 2006 but felt colder than 2006 (which was then largely mild again from 08th onwards). 2012 was generally chilly, and we did actually have a dusting of wet snow on 04th here, but the difference was lack of frost until much later on.  The former had the greater diurnal range, typical of cold and dry conditions. 2012 was just cold and wet, so more similar to 2019. 

[damianslaw]

Just now, MP-R said:

Yes good point - November 2016 (how could I forget), exactly ten years after 2006 but felt colder than 2006 (which was then largely mild again from 08th onwards). 2012 was generally chilly, and we did actually have a dusting of wet snow on 04th here, but the difference was lack of frost until much later on.  The former had the greater diurnal range, typical of cold and dry conditions. 2012 was just cold and wet, so more similar to 2019. 

We've had quite varied Novembers in the last 20 years or so.. some decent cold conditions at times, notably second half 2005, end of 2010. End of 2008, 2012, 2016, 2017 and 2019 were cold. 2013 was quite cold at times. Exceptionally wet at times especially 2009 and 2015. 

 

[MP-R]

On 26/10/2021 at 23:41, damianslaw said:

We've had quite varied Novembers in the last 20 years or so.. some decent cold conditions at times, notably second half 2005, end of 2010. End of 2008, 2012, 2016, 2017 and 2019 were cold. 2013 was quite cold at times. Exceptionally wet at times especially 2009 and 2015. 

 

Indeed. We hardly ever get 200mm+ months down here but November 2002 just broke that, and 2009 absolutely smashed it! An incredible month for rain. Mid October to mid November 2000 also went over 200mm. 

If there’s a most reliable time for entrenched Atlantic and associated soakers it’s November! ?

[Staffmoorlands]

So two autumn months without a frost here in the Staff Moorlands. Will we get a frost at all this Autumn? Only 34 nights left! Could be a first if this happens

Edited October 27, 2021 by Staffmoorlands

[Freeze]

Sunny and 17c here with a bit of a breeze, another world compared with the northwest at the moment. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

 

1 hour ago, Staffmoorlands said:

So two autumn months without a frost here in the Staff Moorlands. Will we get a frost at all this Autumn? Only 34 nights left! Could be a first if this happens

With the exception of the odd day here and there, on the whole it hasn't been a very inspiring autumn for weather enthusiasts.

No storms, not many blue sky crisp mornings, and most places still haven't yet had a frost. 

Perhaps Novemeber will be a turn around and will have some more spice to it. 

[John88B]

Our local weatherman Fergie just gave a very interesting winter forecast on our local news. Nov/Dec/Jan expect below average temperatures with plenty of northern blocking with the chance of even colder outbreaks Jan/Feb. 

Very positive for cold lovers.

[RJBingham]

40 minutes ago, John88B said:

Our local weatherman Fergie just gave a very interesting winter forecast on our local news. Nov/Dec/Jan expect below average temperatures with plenty of northern blocking with the chance of even colder outbreaks Jan/Feb. 

Very positive for cold lovers.

Interesting, it's a shootout between the BBC and the MetO

Link to Fergie, but it will probably gone soon

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648404

[damianslaw]

Justified to moan about the long fetch SW airstream. Endless conveyor belt of rain today aided by the warm atmosphere. Polar air can't come soon enough..  4 more days of misery to come.

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Justified to moan about the long fetch SW airstream. Endless conveyor belt of rain today aided by the warm atmosphere. Polar air can't come soon enough..  4 more days of misery to come.

Hope you guys are OK up there in Cumbria Damien.

[swfc]

16 hours ago, RJBingham said:

Interesting, it's a shootout between the BBC and the MetO

Link to Fergie, but it will probably gone soon

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2648404

Can't see anything in regard to winter outlook

[Simon M]

8 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can't see anything in regard to winter outlook

It was mentioned in that day's video forecast, but that might have changed by now.

[Wimbledon88]

58 minutes ago, swfc said:

Can't see anything in regard to winter outlook

Nor can I but at least we know what its going to be like in Gloucester tomorrow.

[Mapantz]

On 28/10/2021 at 12:32, swfc said:

Can't see anything in regard to winter outlook

You'd have to find it on catchup somewhere, that's what I did with South Today.

[mb018538]

Another pretty decent autumn day here. Breezy, sunny and 17c.

Autumn proper hasn't really got going here yet, we've been stuck in a holding cycle for weeks now. October miles above average, much like September was.

[stainesbloke]

Dense fog here this morning, at last Sunny and calm from late morning, absolutely beautiful day. 13°C the maximum temperature 

[Summer8906]

The forecast for the next few days clearly illustrates one of the most infuriating aspects of the northwestern European climate.

Rather than the low progressing west-east into the Continent, it gets stuck either over northwestern Europe or just to the west, something that seems to happen extraordinarily often. Result is it seems we're going to get five days of dull and very wet before the northerly sets in. There's been a lot of talk about a cold spell but not anticipating anything to get excited about here to be honest, as by the time winds finally go round to the north, the high then topples and we're into milder westerlies again.

To be honest I'd prefer a continuation of the current non-descript weather. At least it doesn't keep you stuck in the house all weekend due to constant rain... in other words if nothing else it's 'usable' weather. I find cyclonic weather desperately depressing, particularly in the late autumn and winter.

(Sorry this is a moan but I've seen a few things hinting at a colder, more anticyclonic and frosty November but little evidence of that on the GFS or on the Met Office forecast).

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Summer8906

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Another pretty decent autumn day here. Breezy, sunny and 17c.

Autumn proper hasn't really got going here yet, we've been stuck in a holding cycle for weeks now. October miles above average, much like September was.

2021 has certainly been a topsy turvy year for our seasons.

We had our October back in May, August in September, and September in October. Will November actually feel like November? We shall have to wait and see!

[Wimbledon88]

Looks like it's been more sensationalist forecasting from the usual suspects regarding the 'floods' in Cumbria. Seen more flooding down here over the last couple of months. Looking at the video footage it just looks like a wet autumn day. 

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Looks like it's been more sensationalist forecasting from the usual suspects regarding the 'floods' in Cumbria. Seen more flooding down here over the last couple of months. Looking at the video footage it just looks like a wet autumn day. 

Not sure I'd called over a foot of rain in 36 hours at Honister Pass an average Autumn Day. Yes we've had much worse flooding.. but the rain totals have been far than average. Thankfully the river levels and groundwater levels were relatively normal before the deluge..  but we now have the foundations which can turn an average Autumn Day into one that easily causes flooding..

Will have to get used to media sensationalist commentary about any fairly wet weather in the days ahead given the build up to COP26!..

Edited October 28, 2021 by damianslaw

[Mapantz]

Almost dark with the overcast skies. It's crept up fast!  Cosy though.. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

2021 has certainly been a topsy turvy year for our seasons.

We had our October back in May, August in September, and September in October. Will November actually feel like November? We shall have to wait and see!

The worst thing about 2021, was the dull and cloudy spring and summer. It was beyond bleak down south. Possibly one of the worst years for lack of sunshine.