Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Staffmoorlands]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

GLOSEA updated

Break out the PROZAC

Met Office are going with just a 10% chance of a colder than normal 3 months (Nov, Dec, Jan). Mainly mild and getting wetter as we head in to winter. 
 

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

GLOSEA updated

Break out the PROZAC

Thanks Knocker. That is a Winter killer of a forecast for coldies!

Excellent for the squirrels though.

[Yarmy]

Looks very similar to last November's update for DJF:

 Que será será 

[Wimbledon88]

Those Glosea charts are just witchcraft and sorcery. 

And would hardly do the 'climate change church' much good if they came out with colder than average charts would it.

[Polar.]

1 hour ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Those Glosea charts are just witchcraft and sorcery. 

And would hardly do the 'climate change church' much good if they came out with colder than average charts would it.

It would do the thicko deniers good though wouldn't it. Every time it snows its "proof" it isn't real afterall. 

[summer blizzard]

I must admit that while I favour a decent winter, the thing that concerns me most is atmospheric coupling. We have a stonking -PDO and the MEI has been in solid moderate territory too which suggests the atmosphere may imprint a stronger Nina signal than it otherwise would in a weak event.

[RJBingham]

9 hours ago, knocker said:

GLOSEA updated

Break out the PROZAC

A thing of beauty.

[carinthian]

Look at that day 10 chart from GFS.  Like the mid -latitude wrapped in a high pressure time warp. Crumb of comfort, day 10 charts hardly verify. So lets hope one of those Lows on the North flank eventually split the beast and send polar air mass diving south. Hope with ECM run this morning. Think many in Euroland/ UK have not even seen a ground frost yet, never mind a snowflake ! However,not a normal zonal pattern going on , so could turn very cold quickly, hopefully.

[MattStoke]

Last winter here was milder than average overall but one of the snowiest winters I have ever experienced.

3 monthly average charts don’t always tell the full story.

Edited November 12, 2021 by MattStoke

[throwoff]

This mornings charts all seem to have whispers of fun at +240..

[Staffmoorlands]

6z GFS is grim. Mainly cloudy and on the mild side for weeks!

[LRD]

20 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

Those Glosea charts are just witchcraft and sorcery. 

And would hardly do the 'climate change church' much good if they came out with colder than average charts would it.

Good grief

[LRD]

On 11/11/2021 at 10:57, knocker said:

GLOSEA updated

Break out the PROZAC

The probability forecasts from the Met (I linked to them on another thread) paint a similar picture. I reckon we are 'due' (if the weather/climate works like that) a 1988-89 or 1989-90 style winter. Although I guess 2013-14 and 2015-16 were similar to those 2 winters so we don't have to go back too far. I know 2013-14 was really bleak but some of the rainfall events were extreme and interesting in their own right. Doesn't have to snow for the UK to get active, lively weather

[Mapantz]

I thought I'd post this tweet from Marco Petagna regarding the Autumn outlook from the Met Office:

 

[Josh Rubio]

Despite the precipitation charts showing very little rainfall for a large part of the country, it seems like it’s been permanently wet on the ground here. Lots of drizzle and/or light rain. Certainly no ‘drought’ conditions!

[MP-R]

If the models hold true over the coming weeks, this could end up being one of the most boring Novembers ever - on a par with 2011 and 2004.

[Nick L]

26 minutes ago, MP-R said:

If the models hold true over the coming weeks, this could end up being one of the most boring Novembers ever - on a par with 2011 and 2004.

It's proper grim. The sunny, fresh conditions back in October are a distant memory. We're back into weather purgatory, 2021 summed up!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

43 minutes ago, MP-R said:

If the models hold true over the coming weeks, this could end up being one of the most boring Novembers ever - on a par with 2011 and 2004.

Back to summer!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

57 minutes ago, MP-R said:

If the models hold true over the coming weeks, this could end up being one of the most boring Novembers ever - on a par with 2011 and 2004.

For me, it's not just November but the whole of autumn has been a boring one and will go down as being one of the most forgettable ones in recent memory.

No storms, hardly any frosts, very little crisp sunny mornings and too much anticylonic gloom. So overall, a cooler version of August.

With the exception of the hot spell in early September, I can't think of anything particularly noteworthy that has happened this autumn.

 

[cheeky_monkey]

3 hours ago, LRD said:

The probability forecasts from the Met (I linked to them on another thread) paint a similar picture. I reckon we are 'due' (if the weather/climate works like that) a 1988-89 or 1989-90 style winter. Although I guess 2013-14 and 2015-16 were similar to those 2 winters so we don't have to go back too far. I know 2013-14 was really bleak but some of the rainfall events were extreme and interesting in their own right. Doesn't have to snow for the UK to get active, lively weather

1988-89 would be a good match as that was a La Nina winter..also 1998-99 would also be a good match for similar reasons..maybe the best match is 1999-00 when looking at back to back La Nina years 

[Wimbledon88]

Tipping it down again in South London. Still, the met office are saying there's a 10% chance of rain. They really are jokers the whole lot of em.

[sundog]

Been such a boring ,bland ,mild autumn . Not surprising considering the well above average September we had. I  expect winter to generally continue the theme that set in during September. Above average temperatures........

[summer blizzard]

While bland we have had reasonable rainfall levels this Autumn so it won't stand out as markedly dry or wet here. Just mild and a bit dull probably.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, sundog said:

Been such a boring ,bland ,mild autumn . Not surprising considering the well above average September we had. I  expect winter to generally continue the theme that set in during September. Above average temperatures........

I'm with you. IF we get snow it'll come in March ...

[Staffmoorlands]

Living in the Staffordshire Moorlands, autumn would often bring the first covering of snow. Usually from late October. Not much depth usually and tended to fall in showers from a north westerly wind.

Think the last autumn snow was November 2010 which is very poor for here.

 

 

Edited November 12, 2021 by Staffmoorlands