Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 12 Apr 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 13 Apr 2022

ISSUED 08:13 UTC Tue 12 Apr 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather messy forecast evolution is anticipated on Tuesday, as a plume of relatively high (albeit still notably lower than mid-summer standards) Theta-W plume continues to be drawn northwards across central and eastern Britain on the forward side of a weakening longwave trough - becoming especially focussed over eastern England by the afternoon, ahead of the cold front. Pulses of showery rain will accompany this plume, spreading northwards and while a few lightning strikes would be possible almost anywhere, very deep, moist profiles are expected which tends to limit buoyancy and hence lightning risk. Therefore, the best potential for lightning will be largely associated with surface heating and convergence during the afternoon and evening hours. 

Full forecast here http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-04-12

[Harry]

Not that I’m expecting anything today, it’s nice to feel warmth and see swathes of Ac overhead

Edited April 12, 2022 by Harry

[wimblettben]

6 hours ago, Alderc said:

Well that was a 100% flop. Good to start the convective season in the usual manner. (Not that much was expected off course)

The time of year with the most frustrating weather type is upon us again with many days of let downs.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

If  there is going to be storm development I'm expecting it around Hull and areas a bit west of there, currently clearing happening just to the south of that area and the highest instability should develop within that region 

[Chris.R]

Still cloudy here no sign of it clearing. Time is running out.

[weatherobsuk]

Lightning now showing up on the cells towards the Shropshire Hills.

[StormChaseUK]

Can confirm just had a thunderstorm here in ludlow, shropshire.

Few bright flashes and loud thunder

[Arnie Pie]

15 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Lightning now showing up on the cells towards the Shropshire Hills.

30 odd miles to my West atm.... hoping for something to come up along the M5 corridor later

[Harry]

Bravo on your forecast today @staplehurst - saw some tweeters favouring EA today but your slight risk so far is bang on the money

[staplehurst]

6 minutes ago, Harry said:

Bravo on your forecast today @staplehurst - saw some tweeters favouring EA today but your slight risk so far is bang on the money

East Anglia / Lincs was an interesting one today (mentioned it in the text discussion but too low confidence to add to map). If something could break the cap it could've been noteworthy, but the cap (so far) has been too strong.

High-res guidance suggests showers and odd storms may continue to develop NE across the Midlands and perhaps NW / Cen N England through this evening, so we may have several hours yet with odd things popping off

[Eagle Eye]

I saw the lapse rates and CAP in EA and went away from issuing a slight risk myself and I just wasn't sure in the west so I didn't put a slight anywhere so not the best from me but not the worst.

[Turquoise]

looks like lightning activity has died in the Shropshire cell. Not much else likely to happen unfortunately

[Chris.R]

Nothing is going to happen in NW England this evening. Just not enough insolation at all today. Maybe five minutes at 12.

[Jan]

Just had very heavy rain here in Nrth Liverpool, and an eerie yellow glow, but no thundery activity

[Dangerous55019]

Evening everyone.

I have to be honest and say that I wasn’t expecting anything for my neck of the woods today… But it did have a ‘plumey feel’ to it.

Plus we’ve currently got a superb display of Mammatus clouds here at the moment.

Anyway… Don’t loose hope folks, as although we’re feeling storm starved after the winter, the storm season is still young.

[Chris.R]

Torrential shower with hail. Not electrified yet

[carl1980]

16 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Torrential shower with hail. Not electrified yet

Just hit here

[carl1980]

Can see lightning from the showers to my north east

Only seen one flash lit up the sky must of been the top of the storm

 

 

Edited April 12, 2022 by carl1980

[viking_smb]

bit of a thunderstorm at work today, but couldnt see lightning from my desk

[Jo Farrow]

Did anyone see these yesterday? They were only issued on area-specific MO feeds, so you would have to be following 

@ metofficeWales @ metofficeWMids @ MetofficeSWEng Twitter to see them.

Text example "Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect parts of northern Cornwall and western Devon during the coming few hours In addition to some difficult driving conditions, there is a small chance of some minor surface water flooding"

No timeframe, just a nowcasting tool and you don't see the extended area, so need to know which one you are in, but won't see region to say the SW.

Sure that the MO would appreciate feedback. Has anyone seen any explanation/announcement text to accompany these?

Nick's convective forecast for 13th 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

 

[Arnie Pie]

Some moody cells passing over central parts this afternoon

[alexisj9]

10 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

Did anyone see these yesterday? They were only issued on area-specific MO feeds, so you would have to be following 

@ metofficeWales @ metofficeWMids @ MetofficeSWEng Twitter to see them.

Text example "Showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect parts of northern Cornwall and western Devon during the coming few hours In addition to some difficult driving conditions, there is a small chance of some minor surface water flooding"

No timeframe, just a nowcasting tool and you don't see the extended area, so need to know which one you are in, but won't see region to say the SW.

Sure that the MO would appreciate feedback. Has anyone seen any explanation/announcement text to accompany these?

Nick's convective forecast for 13th 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/convective

 

I've seen on Facebook, they are advertising it, but haven't looked into it yet. I'm guessing Kent is in se region in this?

Edited April 13, 2022 by alexisj9

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Arnie Pie]

Interesting cells just to the SE of Brum atm......not expecting anything from Mr Thor, even though its my Birthday today