Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Lance M said:

Tempted to say models look a little better, if anything, than they did before I went to bed. The slightest eastward correction has happened on Arome. 

Already plenty of activity in the far south west, which is a good sign.

Don’t really want an eastward correction, blink and it’ll be over Kent! 

[LightningLover]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Don’t really want an eastward correction, blink and it’ll be over Kent! 

Fine by me, haha! But honestly it would be nice for Western/Central Southern areas to score big this year, you guys deserve it!

[ChannelThunder]

32 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Don’t really want an eastward correction, blink and it’ll be over Kent! 

Ah, me neither! If I implied otherwise then I didn't mean to, it was just an observation

[Atmogenic]

1 hour ago, LightningLover said:

Fine by me, haha! But honestly it would be nice for Western/Central Southern areas to score big this year, you guys deserve it!

 

45 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Ah, me neither! If I implied otherwise then I didn't mean to, it was just an observation

You two can have them as much as I love storms I rather just have the heat for now. Once i've sustained enough heat to be able to just wear a t-shirt THEN i'll have the storms back 

[ChannelThunder]

12 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

 

You two can have them as much as I love storms I rather just have the heat for now. Once i've sustained enough heat to be able to just wear a t-shirt THEN i'll have the storms back 

Ideally I'd like a bit of both it's VERY odd to be talking about plume storms tonight given we'll have a maximum temperature of a whole 13C here today!

[LightningLover]

24 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Ideally I'd like a bit of both it's VERY odd to be talking about plume storms tonight given we'll have a maximum temperature of a whole 13C here today!

Probably indicative of low end potential, but it's nice to be talking about this sort of thing in Early April! Lets see how we do

[ChannelThunder]

Latest Arome:

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Lance M

[staplehurst]

I mentioned this to Lance the other day, but Sunday 3rd April 2016 is one of the earliest-in-the-year elevated thunderstorm events in recent times, with surface temperatures of 10-12C that evening under an easterly undercut - the warm air arriving from France riding over the "cold" surface air. The maximum temperatures of 17C in SE England and 20C in France earlier that afternoon are not too dissimilar to today's. 

Notice also the orientation of the lightning tracks (SSE-NNW) - not something you see very often in SE England!

Edited April 11, 2022 by staplehurst

[Eagle Eye]

Good signs with cirrus etc

[Guest]

Arome 06Z holding firm…..steady as she goes!! 
 

In theory looks perfect for sitting on the cliff top tonight however I’m stuck at with the kids alone so no chance of getting out!

[ChannelThunder]

After the most 'cirrus-ey' morning I've seen in a good while, there's now a large quantity of AC Cas making inroads from the channel. Nice to see my favourite cloud type back in the skies for the first time this year, even if it does come to nothing later on.

Edited April 11, 2022 by Lance M

[Supacell]

Hello and welcome to the UK storm season of 2022, lets hope it's a good one and we can all get to see something akin to what we want to see. It's been a very active start to the spring over the other side of the Atlantic and still is. Hopefully this is a sign of an active season over here as we head further into spring and summer, although I know of no correlation between the two.

I was planning on coming on here somewhat later in the month than today as I did not see this one coming, but here we go, the chance of something thundery during the course of the next 24-36 hours has pricked those hairs up on the back of my neck.

So presently I have no car and so will not be chasing tonight or in the next week or two. I wasn't planning to be chasing this early in the season anyway and in reality the risk tonight is not worthy of driving long distance. I am hopeful to have a vehicle again before the end of the month and hoping to resume chasing, although petrol costs are becoming worrying. That's not a story for this thread though.

Back to the here and now. For those living in the south of UK and Ireland this could be the first real chance to see a bit of lightning during the upcoming night, notwithstanding the sporadic lightning that occurred a couple of days ago off the south coast. This far north I may get to see the odd flash and rumble as dawn approaches tomorrow and again tomorrow, but tonight the risk tends to diminish the further north you get. Best chance tonight looks to be along the south coast of England and just inland from there. That's not to say other places couldn't get woken up by a rumble of thunder.

In case you missed it, NickF has a convective forecast for today/tonight:

Severe Convective Weather & Storms Forecast - Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Convective Weather has a SLGT risk near the south coast and in the SW, as posted a few posts up. Another chance tomorrow of a few thundery showers breaking out across most places.

 

 

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Supacell

[Harry's House]

15 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

I mentioned this to Lance the other day, but Sunday 3rd April 2016 is one of the earliest-in-the-year elevated thunderstorm events in recent times, with surface temperatures of 10-12C that evening under an easterly undercut - the warm air arriving from France riding over the "cold" surface air. The maximum temperatures of 17C in SE England and 20C in France earlier that afternoon are not too dissimilar to today's. 

Notice also the orientation of the lightning tracks (SSE-NNW) - not something you see very often in SE England!

I remember when I was on a night shift at Herstmonceux during the early hours of 14th (possibly 15th) April 1981. There was a lot of medium level thundery activity, but at the surface there was a chilly NE'ly breeze.

[ChannelThunder]

A bit worried about this breeze hampering any attempts I might, if I'm lucky, have at lightning photography tonight, but the forecasts and models thankfully have the winds dying down a fair bit come late evening.

[Arnie Pie]

Some Encouraging skies over Birmingham this afternoon....Stream ready to go if needed

[Guest]

That’s a a bit of an eastward shift in just 6hrs from the Arome to 20Z

 

 

[ChannelThunder]

42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

That’s a a bit of an eastward shift in just 6hrs from the Arome to 20Z

 

 

Midnight onward is out now, and it's back westwards!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Midnight onward is out now, and it's back westwards!

Oh wow, it’s all over the place!!! 

[Eagle Eye]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Oh wow, it’s all over the place!!! 

Definitely a nowcasting as to where it goes

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, Arnie Pie said:

Stream ready to go if needed

I was thinking of doing the same, now I have 1Gbps fibre.. 

[Mapantz]

Well, I have it running.. I'll just leave it running too, hardly using any resources. If there is any lightning activity tonight, I don't need to faff with anything.

[Arnie Pie]

Great news Mr Pantz

More the merrier..  and I have no doubt you will be able to make the most, and understand the latest tech to create a top notch stream

Edit: just saw your new stream

Excellent.. Lovely and smooth and clear sound

Edited April 11, 2022 by Arnie Pie

[ChannelThunder]

Very quiet in here! That, the time of year and the downgrades are making me fear nothing's gonna happen! Then I remember the amount of AC Cas earlier (not that it's ever a guarantee of storms, as I know all too well from experience!)

 

Edited April 11, 2022 by Lance M

[Harry]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Well, I have it running.. I'll just leave it running too, hardly using any resources. If there is any lightning activity tonight, I don't need to faff with anything.

That your anemometer in the foreground @Mapantz? Love it

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Harry said:

That your anemometer in the foreground @Mapantz? Love it

That's my secondary station. My Davis one is on the roof. 

I didn't even realise that one was in view, so that's pretty cool!