Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Jamie M]

1200 - 1800

Seems rather odd they've issued a warning but I'm not the expert.

[carl1980]

Looks like a nice storm north west Wales few strikes in the last five minutes

[wimblettben]

We had some distant lightning and thunder this morning some time after 7:00AM to the northwest and north of us.

I woke up first from a dream and then i heard a loud low rumble and i thought it might have been an earthquake or tremor, and it was only when i opened the curtains and then saw a flash in the sky that i knew it was lightning.

I then wen't outside and saw that this distant storm was then flashing every minute or so with distant rumbles for at least 15 minutes and i counted the time to hear the rumble from one of the flashes to be 45 minutes so it was about 9 miles away.

[Harry's House]

Days of thunder heard at my house in Pagham:

2016: 10

2017: 11

2018: 12

2019: 10

2020: 4

2021: 9 (omitting 8th September when I was away and I could well have missed thunder on that day)

[Convective]

We had a couple of flashes of lightning last night during those hail and snow showers. Not too much excitement but a good start to the year 

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 03 Feb 2022 - 05:59 UTC Fri 04 Feb 2022

ISSUED 08:02 UTC Thu 03 Feb 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

An active cold front will track southeastwards across the UK and Ireland on Thursday and Thursday night, from NW Scotland at ~12z Thursday to Norfolk-Dorset by 06z Friday. Given a marked wind veer and thermal gradient, substantial low-level vorticity and shear, and notable low-level jet, this suggests line convection will likely evolve along the frontal boundary. Fairly moist profiles with weak/negligible CAPE suggests overall the risk of lightning is rather low, however a short-duration period of heavy rain and squally winds will be possible, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The risk of lightning is arguably greater (albeit still relatively low in any one location) in the post-frontal environment later in the night as a cold pool overspreads relatively warm SSTs, aiding the development of numerous showers over northern and western Scotland and portions of Ireland.

http://convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2022-02-03

 

[Jamie M]

CW Outlook:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 16 Feb 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 17 Feb 2022

ISSUED 08:02 UTC Wed 16 Feb 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

During the afternoon and evening hours, a marked mid-level dry intrusion will overspread a surface cold front shifting southeastwards across Ireland, England and Wales. Very strong low-level shear and some modest CAPE suggests the potential for shallow but intense convection, with line segments both along the cold front, and perhaps other clusters in the post-frontal environment through the evening/night. These will be capable of producing squally winds and perhaps one or two isolated tornadoes - and a SVR has been introduced to highlight this risk. While the convection will, for the most part, be too shallow for lightning there could be a few odd strikes from the strongest cells - this perhaps most likely over northern England (while the tornado risk, albeit still very low in any one location, is probably higher across Wales/Midlands/East Anglia). Further showers, some with squally winds, will continue to feed into Ireland and N + W Britain through the night hours, and there could be a few sporadic lightning strikes in western Scotland, for example.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Think Saturday afternoon might have went unnoticed given Eunice but I'm seeing something maybe a big bow echo  certainly a curve in the top part of the hodographs too

[Guest]

Arome drags down 80mph convective gusts from what look like descret cells on the back edge of the rain band along coast Dorset / Hants around lunchtime. Could get quite lively for a time. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

10 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Think Saturday afternoon might have went unnoticed given Eunice but I'm seeing something maybe a big bow echo  certainly a curve in the top part of the hodographs too

Does look to be more of a bow structure on the last few radar scans 

[alexisj9]

15 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Think Saturday afternoon might have went unnoticed given Eunice but I'm seeing something maybe a big bow echo  certainly a curve in the top part of the hodographs too

Yep over us now, or something is, strong winds, though nothing like yesterday, and heavy rain.

[Mapantz]

I mean, it was shaped like a bow, but it certainly wasn't a bow echo in the meteorological sense - that would be associated with an MCS.

[cheese]

Estofex has released a level 3 warning for parts of NI, SW Scotland and NW Englnd. Level 2 for much of England.

Models show a potent squall feature moving across England tomorrow.

[Allseasons-Si]

55 minutes ago, cheese said:

Estofex has released a level 3 warning for parts of NI, SW Scotland and NW Englnd. Level 2 for much of England.

Models show a potent squall feature moving across England tomorrow.

Was just about to post this but i was watching the boxing,...could be a lively day/night tomorrow...

Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 20 Feb 2022 06:00 to Mon 21 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 19 Feb 2022 22:07
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 3 was issued across western and south-western Scotland, northeastern England, and northern parts of the island of Ireland mainly for severe wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued across large parts of England, Wales, the island of Ireland, the Benelux, and across far northern France and western parts of Germany for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

British Isles, Benelux, France, Germany, and central Europe...

A strong WNW-ESE oriented jet streak with 150-200 kt wind speeds at 300 mb rapidly translates ESE-ward with its right exit quadrant about 600 km west of NW Ireland at 12 UTC, over the Irish Sea at 18 UTC, the southern North Sea at 00 UTC, and north-central France at 06 UTC. Strong quasi-geostrophic forcing for upward motion and resulting destabilization is expected to move in concert with it, which will force linear convection along and behind a cold front that will move southeastward from Western Scotland and Ireland southeastward across the British Isles and reach the Alps on Monday morning.

The front should become defined as a rainband as low-level convergence increases during the morning and the afternoon when it tracks southeastward across Wales and England. The strong background wind field of 30-35 m/s at 850 mb suggests that severe gusts should gradually become an increasing risk. Some very severe gusts of over 32 m/s may occur especially while crossing the North Sea and affecting the Benelux countries.

Convection allowing models suggest that some mesovortices may develop along the line in particular when it moves inland across the Benelux, northern France and western Germany where it encounters strongly helical low-level flow (>400 m2/s2 storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km layer) This would suggest that an enhanced risk of very severe gusts > 32 to extend inland, as well as a risk of tornadoes.
Limiting factors to their development, however, are the moderate convergence and wind shift along the line, which in the ICON-D2 model yield, fortunately, values of vertical vorticity of about half to two-thirds of those that were predicted for the line that produced multiple tornadoes in Poland early on Friday. Some risk for tornadoes will nevertheless remain. The risk for severe weather overall is expected to slowly diminish as the forcing of the upper-level jet/vorticity maximum slowly weakens toward the morning.

Scotland, northern England and Wales, Ireland...

The upper-level vorticity maximum on the polar side of the leading part of the jet streak is followed by a second one, which can better be described as a low-to mid-level vorticity maximum with a deep, but slowly filling surface low. This system causes destabilization that will invigorate a second area of convection approaching Scotland and Ireland between 21 and 00 UTC. Because it is embedded in a particularly strong flow and linear organisation is likely as it moves southward after midnight UTC, a level 3 was issued for the area that will be affected. Very severe gusts exceeding 32 m/s will be fairly widespread with the convection, also across areas somewhat further inland. That being said, the convection is not the only culprit: especially the coastal regions of western Scotland and in the north of Ireland will also experience such severe gusts outside of convective storms as a result of the very tight pressure gradient.

European Storm Forecast Experiment - ESTOFEX

WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG

nothing from CV yet though but i suspect that they will tomorrow

stay safe everyone who will be in the firing line. 

[Jamie M]

Bit of lightning from line convection near Lincoln

[Zak M]

No lightning in this surprisingly..

 

[Eagle Eye]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

No lightning in this surprisingly..

 

I think I might have seen a flash but I'm not too sure, was definitely windy for most of the day, the first part brought a lot of strong wind gusts with it here and I think the sound you can hear was a roof tile dislodging 

 

 

 

[A Face like Thunder]

BBC yellow weather warning issued for 'lightning' for parts of Scotland and N.I. tomorrow. Not seen such a warning before. Is it unusual? 

Edited February 23, 2022 by A Face like Thunder

[Allseasons-Si]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 23 Feb 2022 - 05:59 UTC Thu 24 Feb 2022

ISSUED 07:50 UTC Wed 23 Feb 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will progress slowly south-eastwards across most of Britain and Ireland through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Some embedded line convection is likely at times, which may produce a few sporadic lightning strikes - although the risk is likely to decrease with time (and hence southward extent). The post-frontal environment will be very unstable as cold air aloft overspreads relatively warm SSTs helping to generate numerous showers. These will pose the risk of occasional lightning strikes, and the risk will gradually expand from NW Scotland / Northern Isles initially to reach SW Ireland by the early hours of Thursday. The risk may increase over the Irish Sea / NW England towards the end of the night. Hail and squally winds will accompany many of the showers, perhaps gusting over 70mph locally, and an isolated tornado may also be possible.

 

[Cloud 10]

Yes,some unusually cold air crossing the Atlantic in the next day or so with 850 hpa temps. of -8 to -10 really increasing instability.

 

[Snowyowl9]

I did by chance catch the bbc forecast..

And they showed frequent lightning for the NW tonight..

I ve never seen that before especially in feb with snow showers...

UK weather: Snow and 'frequent lightning' barrage set to strike parts of the country this evening

WWW.MSN.COM

---

The nasty weather is the subject of a yellow warning from the Met Office who even warned of danger to life

 

[Dreckly]

Close Lightning and Hail here now. North Cornwall. 

[Windblade]

Had a flash and bang at 7am this morning, followed by HEAVY rain as it passed over. My first storm of 2022. 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Windblade

[Windblade]

MASSIVE Cb over london (I can see it from here in Crayford where I'm working today - it's got a huge anvil on it). Very dark skies underneath it and it's dropped a few strikes on lightningmaps. Getting darker here as it approaches...

Edited February 24, 2022 by Windblade

[Windblade]

Very dark here now, winds got up and it's very icy. We got light hail now as well...