Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards

[Electricmumma]

So strange to watch with frozen toes 

[matt111]

I was hoping the image would be larger than that but you can sort of see it

 

Edited April 9, 2022 by matt111

[Eagle Eye]

Couple screenshots from the Eastbourne cam

  

[Callie]

Strange to hear thunder at 00.40am and then a number of lightning flashes! 

[Puddy Galore]

Did anyone see where Wales was hit by a tornado Wednesday.

Strong winds in north Wales were a tornado, experts confirm | Wales | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Tornado with speeds of up to 114mph swept up sheep and caused extensive damage to farm in Pennal

 

[Weather-history]

Hail showers development

 

[ChannelThunder]

CW have issued an outlook for tonight, primarily for the chance of late night elevated storms into the Scilly Isles; promising signs for tomorrow, which ECM remains very interested in

[ChannelThunder]

The high-res models think Dorset and areas to the north of it may be the sweet spot for elevated cells breaking out from midnight onward tomorrow night. I would guess that as is usual, this is subject to eastward corrections...

[matt111]

From a couple of nights ago 

Edited April 10, 2022 by matt111

[Ben Sainsbury]

Current thinking is highest risk area, Weymouth/Bournemouth to approx just E of IOW, then northwards towards M4. Steering flow more Northerly compared to typical plume events, so remains to be seen whether the typical eastward corrections occur. Will be a good case study and learning experience to look back on.

Edited April 10, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[ChannelThunder]

5 minutes ago, matt111 said:

From a couple of nights ago 

That was the view from Southampton? Blimey, I wish I was out pointing my camera into the channel for that one. Nearly 5am though... 

Edited April 10, 2022 by Lance M

[ChannelThunder]

3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Current thinking is highest risk area, Weymouth/Bournemouth to approx just E of IOW, then northwards towards M4. Steering flow more Northerly compared to typical plume events, so remains to be seen whether the typical eastward corrections occur. Will be a good case study and learning experience to look back on.

Thanks Ben. Seems 'the island' is in with a fair shot. I first posted about this possible plume last Monday I think it was in the model thread, but I didn't think we'd actually end up looking at a genuine chance for elevated thunderstorms this early in the year! 

[Guest]

Bank - but even 24-30hrs out we all know the favoured model spots never end up with a hit. I’d bet my house it’s IOW east, if anything at all occurs.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, matt111 said:

From a couple of nights ago 

That is crazy outshooting of the lightning

[Ben Sainsbury]

15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Bank - but even 24-30hrs out we all know the favoured model spots never end up with a hit. I’d bet my house it’s IOW east, if anything at all occurs.

Seems to be that way every time doesn't it!

[Allseasons-Si]

UKV from 10pm tomorrow night until 6am Wed morning.

[Mapantz]

Re tomorrow night, Tuesday morning; I think it's pretty low risk, more likely to be heavy bursts of showery rain. Any electrical activity will stay across the channel.

[Ben Sainsbury]

Agree with @Mapantz

Mine and @Met4Cast take on tomorrow night: 

 

[Mapantz]

Nice to see this early in the season though. Hopefully, we see more in the way of low pressure anchored out to the west, pumping warm and humid air up from the south, as we head towards summer. 

[Robbie Garrett]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Nice to see this early in the season though. Hopefully, we see more in the way of low pressure anchored out to the west, pumping warm and humid air up from the south, as we head towards summer. 

We are overdue a wet Summer, hopefully this is it.   Wet summer = +TSRA

[ChannelThunder]

34 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

We are overdue a wet Summer, hopefully this is it.   Wet summer = +TSRA

I remember some absolute deluges in the wet summers of 2007 and 2012 (I might be wrong about those specific years), and yeah, as much as Joe public would claim every UK summer is wet, we really are overdue one, but I can't help think maybe they're a thing of the past. I hope I'm wrong about that though.

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

We are overdue a wet Summer, hopefully this is it.   Wet summer = +TSRA

Last summer was extremely wet in the south. 

[Robbie Garrett]

Yes, but compared to the 00s, I don't think our Summers are as wet as them. 2012 was a wet one all over.

When I was a kid in the 90s, I remember going down East Street Market with my grandparents, getting drenched, going for Pie & Mash and getting drenched lol.

22 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Last summer was extremely wet in the south. 

25 minutes ago, Lance M said:

I remember some absolute deluges in the wet summers of 2007 and 2012 (I might be wrong about those specific years), and yeah, as much as Joe public would claim every UK summer is wet, we really are overdue one, but I can't help think maybe they're a thing of the past. I hope I'm wrong about that though.

 

[Jamie M]

CW forecast out.

Convective Weather

WWW.CONVECTIVEWEATHER.CO.UK

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Forecasting thunderstorms and severe convective weather across the British Isles and Ireland for up to the next 5 days.

 

[ChannelThunder]

Tempted to say models look a little better, if anything, than they did before I went to bed. The slightest eastward correction has happened on Arome. 

Already plenty of activity in the far south west, which is a good sign.