Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[throwoff]

Most recent chart -

If we compare it to last year, ice much better, snow much further south and west.

Comparing to the recent 'gold standard' of 2010 we are very close to those halcyon days...

[Midlands Ice Age]

Update on Masie...

First of all thanks for those charts Wheezer. It really puts into perspective that Chukchi and Bering are way ahead this year.

That follows on from the fact that Russia (East, at least) has been colder early,  than for quite a few years.

 Anyway -

Masie sea ice extent is now at 9,480K Km2, an increase of (+180K) in the last 3 days. A figure about 20K per day down on the average. So it has been a quiet few days.

Gains have continued in North America with (In 3 days)  gains of (+25K) in Baffin, (+50K) in the CAA, and just (+6K) in Hudson.

 All 3 now look primed  when the next expected cold surge (this weekend?) moves southwards.

Over in the East of the Arctic,  Beaufort (+34K) and Chukchi (+41K) are now about 2/3 full, and Chukchi looks like filling up quickly now that Bering (+19K) seems to have iced over,  and also it appears to have joined the 2 continents by the entrance to the Straits. This cuts off any prospect of warmer waters getting into Chukchi to prevent the freeze up occuring.

Bering has now also finished icing the inlets and bays and is pushing ahead more generally into the ocean itself,  (see below) 

Screenshot 2021-11-12 10.11.59.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

---

Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

Elsewhere Kara is stalling again, with changes of (-10K, +10K and +17K) over the last 3 days,, whilst Barents (+39K)  is steadily  approaching Svalbard,  As a result the bays to the western side of Svalbard are beginning to ice over. (Just noticed that Severnaya Zemlya is doing the same thing).

Greenland has lost ice as the the flow through Fram has stopped. 

Climate Reanalyser is chopping and changing every qtr daily (GFS based!), but the consensus seems to be that low pressure will be stretched out along the North coast of Russia and that this will enable a cold feed from the north and east to flood down over Kara and Beaufort (as daz_4 has suggested), with an anticyclone over on the North American side.

The SST's around the Bering Ocean are also well below normal temperatures now.

          

 

My current weekly Ozone 'shot' of the Northern Hemisphere  is showing the Ozone surplus in the stratosphere  over the Bering is now moving across Canada, whilst a new lowering (not a hole) seems to be forming over Greenland and moving in front of the big wave incoming from Barents. Come to think of it it all looks like a wave is setting up,  oscillating in height/depth, around 75 latitude around the whole northern hemisphere.

 

It could be interesting if it joins up!!.

Also as per the solar  thread we have had increased activity in the Ultra Violet causing quite splendid episodes of the Northern lights in the recent past. 

It is worthwhile watching the outcome of these events, are all these things connected in some way?

MIA

 

Edited November 12, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Update on Masie...

First of all thanks for those charts Wheezer. It really puts into perspective that Chukchi and Bering are way ahead this year.

That follows on from the fact that Russia (East, at least) has been colder early,  than for quite a few years.

 Anyway -

Masie sea ice extent is now at 9,480K Km2, an increase of (+180K) in the last 3 days. A figure about 20K per day down on the average. So it has been a quiet few days.

Gains have continued in North America with (In 3 days)  gains of (+25K) in Baffin, (+50K) in the CAA, and just (+6K) in Hudson.

 All 3 now look primed  when the next expected cold surge (this weekend?) moves southwards.

Over in the East of the Arctic Beaufort (+34K) and Chukchi (+41K) are now about 2/3 full, and Chukchi looks like filling up quickly now that Bering (+19K) seems to have iced over and also,  appears to have joined the 2 continents by the entrance to the Straits. This cuts off any prospect of warmer waters getting into Chukchi to prevent the freeze up occuring.

Bering has now also finished icing the inlets and bays and is pushing ahead more generally into the ocean itself,  (see below) 

Screenshot 2021-11-12 10.11.59.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

---

Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

Elsewhere Kara is stalling again, with changes of (-10K, +10K and +17K) over the last 3 days,, whilst Barents (+39K)  is steadily  approaching Svalbard,  As a result the bays to the western side of Svalbard are beginning to ice over. (Just noticed that Severnaya Zemlya is doing the same thing).

Greenland has lost ice as the the flow through Fram has stopped. 

Climate Reanalyser is chopping and changing every qtr daily (GFS based!), but the consensus seems to be that low pressure will be stretched out along the North coast of Russia and that this will enable a cold feed from the north and east to flood down over Kara and Beaufort (as daz_4 has suggested), with an anticyclone over on the North American side.

 

My current weekly Ozone 'shot' of the Northern Hemisphere  is showing the Ozone surplus in the stratosphere  over the Bering is now moving across Canada, whilst a new lowering (not a hole) seems to be forming over Greenland and moving in front of the big wave incoming from Barents. Come to think of it it all looks like a wave is setting up,  oscillating in height/depth, around 75 latitude around the whole northern hemisphere.

 

It could be interesting if it joins up!!.

Also as per the solar  thread we have had increased activity in the Ultra Violet causing quite splendid episodes of the Northern lights in the recent past. 

It is worthwhile watching the outcome of these events, are all these things connected in some way?

MIA

Sorry I made an error above (too late to rectify).

 Should have said that the Ozone wave was coming across from Bering (not Barents).

[Day 10]

On 12/11/2021 at 10:15, throwoff said:

Most recent chart -

If we compare it to last year, ice much better, snow much further south and west.

Comparing to the recent 'gold standard' of 2010 we are very close to those halcyon days...

I would say we have already past 2010 levels.

[throwoff]

19 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I would say we have already past 2010 levels.

You might be right...

[Midlands Ice Age]

A bit quiet on here last couple of days.

 Despite this, the snow and sea ice cover has continued moving ahead apace.

Snow is now covering more or less all of Russia, and has more recently expanded to give the winter covering around the great Lakes in N. A.

Masie sea ice extent has moved ahead in the last 3 days with gains of (+113K, 183K, 141K and today+77K) to give a total of 9881K Km2.

Of interest is that 10,000K Km2 was reached on day 328 (11 days time) last year, and in the last 5 years, it has been between 8 and 21 days later than the current date. (see Masie Total Northern hemisphere graph below.)

The latest 3 days of total growth for the various areas have seen rapid growth in North America with Baffin (+94K), CAA (+28K) and Hudson Bay (+48K). Hudson is now showing ice in the bays and islands of the Southern portion of the area. So future rapid growth now looks certain there. (use expand feature to see)

Screenshot 2021-11-14 18.04.24.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

---

Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

The polar bears were correct last week!!!!

 

Screenshot 2021-11-14 18.11.10.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

---

Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

 

Over in the Arctic Ocean  we have seen gains in most of the areas with Beaufort (+33K) close to being full, Chukchi (+60K) soon reaching for the Yucatan Peninsula, before filling completely. 

Screenshot 2021-11-14 18.50.00.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

---

Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

This leaves Barents (+53K) steadily infilling around Svalbard, and Kara (-3K) still suffering from westerly winds, though the ice is currently thickening.

 Greenland (+36K) has remained  slow moving with little ice  movement  down the east coast, (due to a slack flow through Fram), but more freezing now down the west coast.

Outside the basin  we have seen ice develop in the SOO (+10K) and more recently along the coasts of the Gulf of Bothnia (Baltic) by (+2K).

Ice Thickness is still above the recent 10 years average in about 8th position. 

- whereas ice extent has improved recently in 10th /11th position for the last 15 years. (A.S.I.Forum for supplied charts).

              these uses data provided by JAXA,

Ahead is a period (about 2 weeks time), where the  ice extent tends to see the overall sea ice extent numbers for all areas merge together.  We are about 7 -20 days ahead this year in the sea ice freezing figures, so it will be interesting to watch if we the same this year..

Will we see this years figures 'slip back' to join the pack?.

Climate Reanalyser is still in a state of flux, although there seems to be a tendency to move the poorly formed polar vortex over to the Russian side, This along with quite a cold Arctic could prove interesting for the UK soon.

 With ozone continuing its build up in North America it will be interesting to see if any expected warming (as a result)  allows the formation of a Greenland blocking anticyclone..

We will see what effect this may have on the Arctic ice.

MIA

Edited November 14, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Wheezer]

As has been noted, Chukchi chugging along 

 

[Wheezer]

 

Perhaps the captains of these vessels should pay more attention to this thread more than other sources

 

20 VESSELS CAUGHT BY SURPRISE WITH SEA ICE CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE - Energy Global News

WWW.ENERGYGLOBALNEWS.COM

---

Due to the sea ice conditions there are now about 20 vessels that either are stuck or struggling to make it across the Northern Sea Route

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another 2 days and more sea ice and snow gains.

Yesterday and Today...

r                    

 

Wheezer - I am surprised that the Russian ice breakers haven't been around.  They have about 10 patrolling these waters.

Masie has steadily shown increases over the last 2 days  (77K  and 178K) to break the significant 10,000K Km2 barrier at 10,136K Km2.

 This is the 3rd earliest date in the last 15 years, (behind 2014 and 2015) but even they could well be surpassed in the next few days, if the weather conditions remain fairly benign for the ice. (see below).

   JAXA data from the ASIF.

 

 

Masie areas have continued the recent trends of increasing in the outer central Arctic basin seas and refreezing rapidly in North America. All the following are 2 days cumulative figures.

Baffin (+87K) is now rapidly covering the ocean along the Labrador side, the CAA (+20K) - not too much left to freeze up now, and Hudson (+38K) now breaking out in a general freeze.

Meanwhile Chukchi (+19K) and the Beaufort (-1K), steadily move towards the Bering Sea (-8K), which had a wind blown day with a low pressure pushing against the coastline.

Kara finally started to move forward again (+51K) and Barents (+83K) has moved 100 miles southwards to capture Jan Mayern and Svalbard should be virtually encircled by the week end.

Screenshot 2021-11-16 20.21.13.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

---

Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

 Greenland (-30K) continues to struggle with little ice entering Fram  (very good for the Arctic in general), but see below.

Baltic is unchanged but the ice is hanging on, awaiting the much colder air forecast for next week, whilst in S Alaska, Cooke inlet (+2K) started its refreeze.. 

Arctic 80 degrees temps are now falling steadily and will soon be below 250K   (-23C) - quite cold for this latest decade at this time of year.

 

The Climate Re-analyser (GFS) output is still 'blowing in the wind' every 6 hours, although any Northerly blast will result in more ice in Fram (bad long-term!) but more in Kara, Barents and the Baltic (good).

Current average and minimum temps for the Arctic...

                 10 days

 

There is now a lot of cold air being 'bottled up' now up there. ready to be thrown out to lower latitude- but exactly where?.

 This situation is causing the the current  highly  excitable commotion in the MAD thread!!

MIA

[Wheezer]

To piggyback on MIAs post,

Past two weeks of ice gain. 

Of note is that Chukchi is up to 90% of its  max last March.   Beaufort sea fills in to 98% of its March max.  Canadian Arctic Archipelago   reaches 96% of its max.  All three close to their tipping point 2021 March Max here in  mid November.  Baffin Bay and Gulf of St. Lawrence up to 67% of its max and Barents Sea at 63% of its March max.

[DavidS]

First white pixels into Scotland 

 

[Wheezer]

[claret047]

As usual this is a wonderful thread to read for someone like me who is no expert but finds it fascinating to see how the seasons change and differ from year to year.

Please excuse my ignorance but I would like to ask a question. With the increased melting of snow in particular in the arctic in recent years, would this dilute the salinity of the water and are we now in a situation that it is now easier for it to refreeze? Is this so insignificant to have no impact? 

Ice melt, I guess, would not have the same effect as it would be saline.

Kind regards

Dave

[Wheezer]

Hope this partially answers a few things.  Anything more would just be my opinion as dependable data on the subject is rather new and not enough to be absolute 

 

The freezing point of sea water varies. For every 5 psu increase in salinity, the freezing point decreases by 0.28 degrees Celsius (0.5 degrees Fahrenheit); thus, in polar regions with an ocean salinity of about 32 psu, the water begins to freeze at -1.8 degrees Celsius (28.8 degrees Fahrenheit). The Arctic Ocean is generally fresher than other oceans, somewhere between 30 and 34 psu, fluctuating with the melt/freeze cycles , so salinity levels vary by region, and areas with strong river inflow may have even lower salinity.The amount of salt in sea water also determines the temperature at which sea water freezes. Yet, despite the saltiness of the ocean, sea ice contains very little salt, about a tenth of the amount of salt that sea water has. This is because ice will not incorporate sea salt into its crystal structure. Therefore, sea ice is actually drinkable.

Edited November 19, 2021 by Wheezer

[Wheezer]

Bering is now close to 2012 start to ice season over the last 15 years

[Midlands Ice Age]

A Masie update after a further 3 days.

First of all thanks to Wheezer for answering Clarets question.

His reply is correct we can see below (screenshot of China (the SOO)) showing ice forming in the estuaries and then moving out to sea to meet the main ice pack moving in. The freeze and melt cycle leave the salinity more or less unchanged as it excludes the salt on the ice formation, but it is still presumably higher lower down and this just mixes again on melting.

Also remember that the Arctic is constantly being flushed from the Atlantic (and to a lesser extent) the Pacific. through Bering.

The melting point for sea ice is 28.2F more or less worldwide.  (-1.8C)

 

On to today's snow and ice.....

Snow formation is more or less stalled in terms of extent just now, but by sunday we should be seeing large increases in Scandinavia and possibly some of central Europe.

Masie sea ice extent has fluctuated widely in the last 3 days, but overall the momentum is still upwards and at very high rates. As suggested we could well be 15th highest in the last 15 years by sunday. We have moved up to 14th now  (see chart below from ASIF, which is JAXA based).

Masie sea extent has increased by (+95K, -18K and +109K) in the latest 3 days to be at 10,322K Km2 total sea ice..

    

The increases have been spread evenly across the Arctic, with increasing trends in the 'eastern' sea areas whilst those in North America slipped slightly due to warm air moving up through the Great Plains.

The figures discussed below are 3 days accumulated ice changes.

Baffin gained are steady (+18K), whilst the CAA (+30K) is nearing full. Hudson however (-43K) lost ice in the north of the area, with the warmer airs.

Greenland is still not accumulating ice (-19K) as Fram refuses to perform.

Next week should see this area in improvement as Northerlies are forecast to sweep down from there right down to the UK.

Beaufort (+14K) has now filled in the main holes and only small amounts of refreeze will occur now. 

Chukchi (+65K) is similar now and is almost ready to move into and out from  the Bering Strait (see below).

Laptev and ESS (no change), now freezing solidly. 

Further along,  Kara (+56K) is now moving steadily westward and is engulfing the Novaya Severnya Islands.

Jan Mayen is now totally captured by the ice, and the same thing is about to engulf Svalbard, which is classified as Barents (+47K). 

Outside the Arctic Ocean, Bering has added  (+26K) in the bays and is awaiting a real freeze now. The SST's in the Barents Ocean are very low this year, and a refreeze could be quick. Elsewhere the SOO (-3K) is fluctuating each day, and the Baltic and Cooke Inlet are just holding onto positive values.

Climate Reanalyser is now showing that the warm air has been squeezed out of the Arctic and temperature anomalies are currently at 0C  for the first time this refreeze season.

This should show up shortly on the DMI arctic Temperature charts -

where we are already nearly 8C below last years values.

Finally I will review the Ozone in my next post, and below is the screenshot of Bering and the SOO that  I promised earlier.

Screenshot 2021-11-19 19.49.16.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

---

Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

MIA

 

 

Edited November 19, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Sparkiee storm]

Snow cover extending west now, reaching the far East of Europe, still good over Scandinavia but white pixels gone from Scotland, they should return in the next couple of days. 

[Aleman]

Is Anchorage Bay freezing up already? I thought that was usually January. I think I've seen that go without ice sometimes in recent warmer years?

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 hours ago, Aleman said:

Is Anchorage Bay freezing up already? I thought that was usually January. I think I've seen that go without ice sometimes in recent warmer years?

Yep Aleman...

It has been very cold this year in Alaska so far.

Just checked  the current temps and they show what is happening  (remember early morning there)  Fairbanks --32C, Anchorage -21C,  Bethel -18C and Whitehorse -30C.

 So it is not really surprising that the ice in Cooke Inlet (Anchorage is at the head) has started to form early. Probably more fresher water there as well!!.

 Also, that over in Barrow (carn't spell the new name) (North Alaska) they have also been iced in, in Beaufort quite early this year. 

Interesting that, (cf recent years)   although most of North America has been milder than the last few years,   Alaska has joined in with the cold over the water (Bering Strait) in Siberia.. 

 

 Whilst on here, another average 70K KM2  increase today in the Masie sea ice extent. This is sufficient to put the total within 10K Km2 of being the highest in the last 15 years, it also exceeds 3 years prior to  2005..  

 MIA 

Edited November 20, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Cymro]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Yep Aleman...

It has been very cold this year in Alaska so far.

Just checked  the current temps and they show what is happening  (remember early morning there)  Fairbanks --32C, Anchorage -21C,  Bethel -18C and Whitehorse -30C.

 So it is not really surprising that the ice in Cooke Inlet (Anchorage is at the head) has started to form early. Probably more fresher water there as well!!.

 Also, that over in Barrow (carn't spell the new name) (North Alaska) they have also been iced in, in Beaufort quite early this year. 

Interesting that, (cf recent years)   although most of North America has been milder than the last few years,   Alaska has joined in with the cold over the water (Bering Strait) in Siberia.. 

 

 Whilst on here, another average 70K KM2  increase today in the Masie sea ice extent. This is sufficient to put the total within 10K Km2 of being the highest in the last 15 years, it also exceeds 3 years prior to  2005..  

 MIA 

great post here’s the native and official name of Point Barrow ‘Utqiaġvik’

[Wheezer]

Just another day in parid-ice.

Chukchi Sea sea ice extent exceeds 95% of the basin . This is the earliest/highest extent (Nov 20th) ice-over since 2012 and four to five weeks earlier than past 9 years... NSIDC

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks for the above Wheezer...

Chukchi is also just about full now on Masie - It is certainly an impressive growth year, this year.

It has also been replicated (preceded?) by the freeze in the ESS and Laptev. This can only reflect the much cooler autumn in Siberia/ Alaska this year caused by the very different weather patterns (with  blocking low over the Bering Straits entrance for about 6 weeks now). It is just starting to move over to the US side, and this will allow much colder northerlies to sweep across the Bering Ocean 

 

See the gif charts above from 'Windy' for an idea of what is happening there. Also it shows cold north easterlies sweeping into Barents and Kara.

Masie has increased the sea ice extent by +67K and +31K over the last 2 days, to give a total of 10,420K Km2.

Still in 14th position for the last 15 years.

The last 2 days has shown growth in Chukchi (+12K), and Hudson (+47K), - recovering after its big fall 2 days ago.

Bering started increasing with a gain of (+32K). 

Other areas had little change.

The current position of all areas can be viewed through the link below -

MASIE Time Series Plots | National Snow and Ice Data Center (nsidc.org)

https://nsidc.org/data/masie/masie_plots

The promised temperature drop in the arctic as shown by Climate Reanalyser a couple of days back, has shown up on the DMI temp charts now  with the new temp of 250.6K  (-32C), this is a full 8C lower than last year, and effectively gives us another 2 - 3 weeks of the re-freeze season.

 

With regard to Ozone the large 'wave' of 2 weeks ago over North America seems to have been reduced to just a more general increased area of Ozone. (Note that this seems to have coincided with much lower forecasts for a powerful Greenland high - which is driving the MAD thread mad!).

 

MIA

 

Edited November 21, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Early snow for the Pyrenees and Atlas Mountains. Russia now completely covered 

 

[Wheezer]

Diesel to the rescue for the ice challenged vessels

 

 

Arctic shippers eye release from Russian ice captivity

THEBARENTSOBSERVER.COM

---

The 15 ships that for the last two weeks have been ice-locked in Russian Arctic waters see release coming as a second icebreaker makes its way into the East...

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Quite interesting..

The section at the end (below) refers to two other nuclear ice breakers which are moored in Murmansk.

''In addition comes six vessels ice-locked in the waters near Pevek on the north Chukotka coast.

According to authorities in the Chukotka region, also nuclear powered icebreaker Yamal was to be sent to assist the vessels. However, as of the 16 of November, the icebreaker was stilled moored in Murmansk. The same was the case with sister ship 50 Let Pobedy.''

They do seem also to have been caught unawares by the sudden freeze up.

I have been watching for the ice to start to freeze up in the bay of Murmansk for a sign of the ice extending along the coastline of Barents, but so far, it doesn't seem to have got past Archangel. 

As far as I am aware there should be no reason not to put them into use. Perhaps they think they will hold them back as they  may be needed around Murmansk shortly!!

 MIA

Edited November 23, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age