Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another update,,,

Snow has increased as expected in Europe, and continues to expand in North America -

 

Masie sea ice (as expected) with the changes in weather conditions has completely stalled.

Masie total sea ice is now 11,428K Km2 after 4 days changes of (-1K, +24K, +`13K and today -5K).

As I expected the new low entering the Bering Ocean aligned itself North South at the western entrance to the straits. This pulled gale force southerly winds into the area and resulted in an ice pile up on the Eastern (US) side, but pushed the ice pack into Chukchi on the SIberian side. This resulted in a net loss of (-98K) for Bering.

Elsewhere Barents (-7K) lost slightly, but Kara (+7K) held up quite well.

Very cold air over Scandinavia resulted in a doubling  of ice in the Baltic (+8K).

latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf (fmi.fi)

https://cdn.fmi.fi/marine-observations/products/ice-charts/latest-full-color-ice-chart.pdf

Greenland ended up level, with large swings, but helped by a freeze on the Western side.

Baffin (+4K) changed little, but the biggest gainer, (as expected) was Hudson Bay (+95K) as cold air flooded the area from the West. 

So where to next?  I think we will see a continued growth in Hudson and Baffin, and now that the low in Bering has flattened (again) I can see cold air sweeping south again with Bering and also the SOO taking off again.

 

        

 

Ozone hole still present to the  east of Greenland,but Ozone continues to build a wave over the Barents Sea

 

MIA

 

 

 

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

Great to see all of Scandinavia covered in snow 

And a very healthy amount of ice 

[johncam]

On 07/12/2021 at 22:47, nobble said:

Great to see all of Scandinavia covered in snow 

And a very healthy amount of ice 

Scandinavia looks like it will get a lot milder 

[Wheezer]

Storminess the first week in December resulted in a 30% decrease in Bering Sea sea ice extent in five days in

@NSIDC

multi-sensor high-resolution MASIE data. However, #seaice extent still well above the 15-year median

 

 

8th ranked coldest November on record for the state. KNOM

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 07/12/2021 at 23:26, johncam said:

Scandinavia looks like it will get a lot milder 

Thanks John....

Which charts are you seeing this on?

I have given below the C.R. (GFS charts) for today and 3 days time - Nothing remotely like 'a lot milder' in these.

I will agree to a bit less cold though..

Todays -

        

 

and the above shows todays  'anomaly,  the 'average',  and the MAXIMUM temperatures.

Also shown below for 3days time -  (not the same order though!)

        

 

 

   Whilst talking Arctic temperatures, I thought the current DMI all above 80 degrees temperature changes might be interesting to some people - 

As discussed prev there was a big increase (4C degrees over the weekend),  when the vicious low in Bering brought milder storms into Bering and Chukchi. This appears to have been reversed/stemmed  now as the temperature dropped back by 3C again yesterday. 

This mainly caused by  Eastern Siberia  now cooling off again, (see above charts) and this despite extreme Alaska still being a bit warmer in the short-term, but even there in 3days time it is expected to drop again.

Cold air now appears to be entrenched into the Arctic this year.

Funnily enough, if the UK gets a full on cross - Arctic blast this winter, then that may actually cause more warmth into  the polar regions?. 

 MIA 

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[johncam]

On 09/12/2021 at 10:44, Midlands Ice Age said:

Thanks John....

Which charts are you seeing this on?

I have given below the C.R. (GFS charts) for today and 3 days time - Nothing remotely like 'a lot milder' in these.

I will agree to a bit less cold though..

Todays -

        

 

and the above shows todays  'anomaly,  the 'average',  and the MAXIMUM temperatures.

Also shown below for 3days time -  (not the same order though!)

        

 

 

   Whilst talking Arctic temperatures, I thought the current DMI all above 80 degrees temperature changes might be interesting to some people - 

As discussed prev there was a big increase (4C degrees over the weekend),  when the vicious low in Bering brought milder storms into Bering and Chukchi. This appears to have been reversed/stemmed  now as the temperature dropped back by 3C again yesterday. 

This mainly caused by  Eastern Siberia  now cooling off again, (see above charts) and this despite extreme Alaska still being a bit warmer in the short-term, but even there in 3days time it is expected to drop again.

Cold air now appears to be entrenched into the Arctic this year.

Funnily enough, if the UK gets a full on cross - Arctic blast this winter, then that may actually cause more warmth into  the polar regions?. 

 MIA 

 

Thanks MIA  for the in depth reply,  if you look at all model temp charts going forward  then Scandinavia does get a lot milder than it is now and some have them in positive temps for a time but as you say if we get it cold in UK  from a northerly  it normally means  a southerly flow into the Arctic somewhere else .

 

Cheers 

John 

 

[MattStoke]

I think the milder conditions @johncam was referring to are where the models show WAA through the UK and up to our north east as high pressure/ridging develops. Possible followed by high pressure then migrating west/north west and pressure falling to the east which would result in Scandinavia cooling down again.

[Midlands Ice Age]

20 hours ago, MattStoke said:

I think the milder conditions @johncam was referring to are where the models show WAA through the UK and up to our north east as high pressure/ridging develops. Possible followed by high pressure then migrating west/north west and pressure falling to the east which would result in Scandinavia cooling down again.

I think that is for the 'outlook' charts over on the ex MAD thread though Matt.

Depends which way the high goes   - to Griceland and its into the freezer for Scandy.

- sticks over the UK and yes they will get the WAA.

Basically its all to play for, for all of us in Europe!!

However, thats all 10 days away.

Meantime the weather will be cold and snowy for them, with the Baltic continuing its ice up.

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf

 

Meanwhile back on t'other side of Atlantic, Hudson Bay is finally undergoing a very rapid freeze up. 

 Back later with details.

MIA

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

As promised earlier the snow and ice update for the last 3 days.

Snow continues to progress into Europe.

Masie sea ice extent total now up to 11,632K Km2 - still at the top of the polls for the last few years.

As I have been suggesting the emphasis for further increases has now switched to the outer areas.

The North American continent has just moved to the forefront right on time after the slow down (temporary?) of Russian ice development.

Hudson Bay is now going for full-scale freeze with increases of (+112K, +63K and +30K),  Baffin is more sedate with a total of (+43K).   

Over in Russia Kara (-16K) has stalled by Severnia Island, and Bering is still recuperating after it was blasted last week (+7K).

The SOO is now moving into freeze up mode now with gains of (-1K, +11K and +3K).

The only other area of interest is Barents (+11K, -12K and +28K).

 Other areas are now more or less static.

 Barents, Bering , Chukchi  and Baltic are still way ahead of the last few years, whereas Hudson is in catch up mode now.

      

 

               

Extent and area appear to be heading for inter-decile highs this year. Interest should next switch to volume and ice thickness in order to see any sign off the development of multi year ice. 

                                   

Meanwhile the Ozone wave continues to increase in intensity over the Bering Ocean and is starting to move into North America.

It is going to be interesting to see if this either disrupts the strat to trop joining of the Polar Vortex. Also whether or not it could [possibly be a component in any strat Arctic warming in the North American sector. All for the future.

 

MIA

 

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 Days update....

>>>Extremely rapid ice freeze starts up in the Arctic perimeter areas.<<<<<

 

Snow charts - not yet updated for today.

Masie Sea Ice extent has recorded a triple century gain as the outer sea areas now takeover from the basin's rapid freeze.

Masie recorded 11.988K Km2 today, an increase of 301K Km2 in the last 2 days (+183K and +118K).

As I have been suggesting over the last month, the sea ice in the Arctic 'perimeter areas' - those areas where the ice is expected to melt in the summer season - would have to have a 'good' refreeze if the extent gains made so far are to be consolidated.

Well despite  the lower Arctic temps this year it looks as if the ice is now also responding  in these outer areas.

North America has been slow to refreeze this year, but now is catching up very fast with Hudson gaining (+61K) and Baffin more sedate with (+52K) over the 2 days - Polar Bears are now happily seal hunting out on the pack.

Elsewhere  we still have something of a stasis in Kara (+10K),as it fights the current on either side of the Severnia Island, Barents too (+18K) is struggling ( where the pack is moving only slowly southwards now), but it has frozen the coastlines all the way to the Bay of Murmansk as a start.

Baltic (-4K) ,  after good rises is awaiting the next burst of cold air for added momentum to the freeze.

Elsewhere, Bering has now almost recovered the large losses of earlier this week and added (+100K). Weather conditions are once again very good for the area and with the cold now, even having returned to Alaska, I expect further improvements shortly as the ice reaches out to the Aleutian Islands.

 The SOO (+44K) is now freezing 'out to sea' and very cold air (below -40C) is approaching from Siberia.

So all is good with extent.

What about volume and thickness?

Well the Masie charts show the ice is starting to thicken quickly now , with most ice free in summer areas now around the 1 meter mark,  nearly  a month earlier than last year.

              

Over the last few seasons the thick multiyear ice has been reduced, to now reside mainly the areas above North America. This season has seen quite a bit of this ice (mainly 2years and less) shunted out westwards into Beaufort. Some of this ice has now reached Chukchi and the ESS, (where the ice is now over 1 meter - as has been discovered by the shipping in the area becoming trapped).  

It is thought that ice less than 1.6 meters stands little chance of surviving the summer melt, In other words,  we will need the colour in the above charts to turn to pale blue and even better to yellow. Therefore we will need to see much more depth yet  to entertain thoughts  in terms of an increase of multi year ice this year. But there is a good chance that this will occur as we are still so early in the season.

Outside  of the 'inner ring', ice does not last the melt seasons.

 Of interest to me is whether or not we see ice form on the Great Lakes. North  America has been relatively mild so far and normally it starts to freeze around the middle of December.

S.O.O.  certainly will refreeze and the amounts it refreezes will determine the final ice extent numbers, this year, as will the Barrants Seas. The last 2 years having been better for this  area.

This year will be interesting for the Baltic. It has started early. Will it be able to approach numbers last seen in 2010?

Other ice 'volume' organisations such as PIOMAS are still having 'technical' problems, so currently the only other data is produced by Russia who have a reasonable ice chart, but only for the inner Arctic waters.

Ill try and find some other data to replace PIOMAS.

All for now...

Stay safe and healthy in the run up to Xmas..

MIA

[Dorsetbred]

As of yesterday

And for the USA

Northern South Dakota, looks a tad green, meanwhile Arizona ski centres are open and enjoying decent snowfall, with more expected this week, and Telluride in southern Colorado has had some good snow over the weekend

[Midlands Ice Age]

A further update (and the review into ice volumes)  that I promised yesterday..

Snow (yesterdays update) gradually increasing in Europe, but still thawing in more central areas,.

 

Meantime today's Masie increases extent by +73K Km2 to a total over 12M KM2,      at 12,061K Km2.

This ice season could be heading for a maximum in 3 months time of over 15M Km2. The first to do so since 2014 reached 15,400K Km2  in early March.

Today's increases were quite interesting.

 Kara increased (+22K) by virtue of the ice gap between Severnia Island and the mainland being closed off. Only a small section of Kara is now left for its refreeze.  (see below).

Although, in the area,  Barents and Greenland lost (-8K and -31K), due to adverse (southerly) winds,  the Baltic (+16K) behaved very erratically and formed a 'bridge' at the entrance to the Gulf of  Finland, something that may be an error as I have never seen it happen before.

Screenshot 2021-12-13 16.59.16.png

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(Use the zoom function to see clearly.)

Elsewhere, Hudson (+27K) continued increasing and has now started moving into Hudson Strait, on its way out to the Baffin Seas. (+29K).

Screenshot 2021-12-13 17.09.20.png

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Bering sea ice continued its merry way with an increase of (+15K), and weather forecasts in the area mean that a continued freeze in the area will now continue.

 

 

Onto  DMI thickness and volume charts latest status. (as promised)

Here,  I have been comparing the DMI ice volume charts for the last 3 months, and whilst the ice thickness maps have moved smoothly, the ice volumes appeared to have been  changed over the last month. This means that it is difficult to say how this seasons volumes have changed. This change has appeared at a time when PIOMAS has not been published so it is very difficult to state what is happening.

The situation seems to have changed sometime towards the end of November - Actually 8th December.

See my volume graph from 22/11/2021,  as I published on here, and compare with the latest (today's chart).

On the first earlier graph, the period pre' Nov 22nd shows this years line as being above the line for 2017 (red line) for most of the previous 2 months. The same is mostly true for 2018 (green line).

However, a view of the second graph (today's date) shows the current year below these 2 years for nearly all the period. Also the volume is shown as being below the average for the last 10 years.

Data collected on 22/11/2021, and shown in here -                                                               

Screenshot 2021-12-13 17.23.25.png

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 Data collected today -

Now I am unaware of any changes to the data used by DMI, although they have updated their HYCOM-CICE model on 8th December,  (which adjusts for things like pond pools, and for the movement of ice  around the Greenland coast).

I was unaware that they would retrospectively adjust all their data, and that it would have such a dramatic result on this years data.

Also of note is that the model does not use Baltic or Pacific Ocean sea ice in its calculations, so any increases there will not show up in their data. 

 

There is talk that a switch to a different satellite recording system  (CryoSat 2 SMOS) system, is now being suggested,

(see below for charts) thanks to ASIF...

So, without knowing whether DMI have switched their input,  it is difficult to make rationale comparisons of the 2 different systems. 

That leaves us short of correct ice thickness data.

 MIA

 

[Winter wonder]

To MIA. Electroverse had something to say on this ice thickness DATA change at the DMI.  He asked them about this but did not get a satisfactory answer.  

[Midlands Ice Age]

No reports in here since Monday, but the Arctic continues to get getting colder, which is good for the prospective cold prospects in the UK. (see below)

 

Snow in Europe has stagnated over the last few days, but can be expected to increase shortly.

 

Sea Ice has been increasing steadily this week  (5 days) with gains of (+47K, _-18K, +82K, +88K and today +113K).

Masie Sea Ice extent is now at a total of 12,303K. still Just highest in the last few years.

     

 

The latter 2 charts above being from JAXA (c/o ASIF), which seems to have settled down again after periods with maintenance issues. Jaxa has us now 11th in the list of ice year's extents.

They  also shows current ice extent still well above the  latest 10 year average.

The  last few days gains have, as predicted, been in the perimeter sea areas as the main sea areas (those with those with the Arctic circle) are  now just about frozen in.

Within the Arctic Oceans  Kara gains (+3K), with freezing restarting again recently. Also Barents gained (+27K) as the ice expands out from the Severnia Islands into the ocean towards Svalbard, whilst the coastline now requires Ice breakers to get any the ships back into the ports. (Murmansk and Arkhangel).

Greenland continues to have little change (-2K).

In the Outer areas to the East,  Bering (+40K) continues its steady progress towards the Aleution Peninsula islands, whilst next door the Sea Of Okhotsk (SOO) has really started to freeze over now with (+111K) over 5 days and +58K today.

Baltic has stopped its 3 day decline today (-24K), and would expect it to start a serious freeze shortly, with the forecast cold slipping into Scandinavia.

In the Outer areas to the West, Hudson (+51K) has made it into the Hudson Straits now and is ready to meet the ice moving down the Baffin Sea. Baffin (+55K) itself is now freezing steadily although it is still a little late this year.

So, as required,  the Outer sea areas are beginning to  take up the increase in ice growth, with still a large amount of open water to ice over.   

It is still quite possible for this years extent to creep up above 15M KM2 this year,  as temperatures remain low and will still drop further as high pressure becomes set to dominate the Arctic itself again, whilst  frequent outbreaks of cold towards the 'Outer' areas look probable without the usual requirements of an SSW to force the cold air outwards, to keep the ice freezing.

            

 

and in 10 days time.....

    

A really quite outstanding Surface Level Pressure  chart there!

This, together with the lack of daylight up there,  can only serve to enhance the cold around the Northern Hemisphere.

Ozone continues to build over the North American continent. I do wonder whether these waves are preventing the Stratosphere and Troposphere connecting (as they have been successfully joining for a number of years}. Perhaps we are seeing what has been the cause of really cold winters and excess ice in the past. 

 

 

Back for another update before Xmas, when hopefully we can report on the coming ice extent in the Thames and Mersey!!

MIA

Edited December 18, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

My how time passes..

Sea Ice extent has leapt ahead over the last 3 days

Masie sea ice extent now up to 12,568K Km2 after increases of .(+113K, 152K and 53K) over the last 3 days.

Normal growth is about 60K Km2 at this time of year. 

 

The above is showing the latest spurt and that JAXA has now increased to 10th/ 11th in the last 15 years.

                

 

 So what is causing this latest surge,?

Well Hudson ((7K, 104K and +87K)  has/is undergoing a fast refreeze now,  as I suggested previous would happen.

Also the SOO (+58K +10K and +74K) is also now freezing rapidly.  Bering is undergoing a stasis (-86K) as a depression moves past the entrance.

SOO in particular has a large area left unfrozen.

Elsewhere Kara is completely full and Barents (+19K) is now taking over the mantle with a large area to refreeze.

Both the SOO and Barents seem to be freezing rapidly now with a a lot of scope for future growth. 

Baffin (-7K) retracted after a growth spurt, but will soon joining Hudson in the Hudson Straits and can be expected to grow again. 

Baltic (+3K) started to recover again 

The  tables are below -

We are still very early in the season for increases in the perimeter areas and they have 2 months left yet to expand, so it could well be that the magical 15,000 K Km2 could be achieved next year.

All now til Xmas. Have a good and healthy run up to Xmas.

MIA

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Arctic Sea Ice extent heading towards 21st century records...

My  Xmas greetings on Christmas Eve, with my last review of ice and snow before the break.

Snow coverage has now moved westwards into Eastern Europe, and is now at normal levels worldwide for the time of year.

 

It is the sea ice extent which is continuing its eye-catching performance this year.

SInce the last update Masie sea ice extent has advanced by 3 century breaks (normal is about 50K Km2 at this time of year).

The last 3 days recorded consistent increases of (+116K, +119K and +123K) to put us within 50K of being within the highest on record for the date for Masie  (12,915K Km2).  

Even Jaxa has moved to within 100K Km2 (see below) for this century.

  for Masie and for Jaxa    (goes back to 2000)

More details here for anyone interested  in the previous years extents on Jaxa  -  (thanks to the ASIF).

  which now sees it as 13th out of the last 17, but another century may well see it at 16th..

 

So why has this happened?

Well this year has had more consistent Arctic cold during the winter freeze season than for 10years.

This enabled a rapid re-freeze for all the Arctic basin internal areas, with particularly strong ice growth in the stagnant (in the 10 years up to this year)  areas around the Russian Arctic.

By the end of November most of the basin was iced over.

However,  one of the peripheral areas - mainly the Eastern US - , had seen below average growth.

That is now  in the process of being corrected, and this is what has caused the rapid increase in the extent figures, and has allowed the numbers to rise well in to the very top of the range extents.

Hence the last 3 days have seen growth in Hudson (+185K) -  the bay is now 90% full -, and even the Hudson Straits are rapidly icing over as the temps drop below -30C. The Straits ice has now joined up with the ice moving down Baffin Ocean  (+67K), which itself has now started to freeze further south along the Newfoundland coastline. 

Elsewhere the increases have come about in the Barents Sea (+33K), which is moving South of Svalbard  now towards the East (towards the Severnia Islands) , and the SOO (+5K), even though the ice here is stalled partially at the moment, as it also has  in the Bering Sea (-2K).  These are the next 2 areas which one normally expects to increase in the next few weeks.

Also of interest is growth in the Baltic (+6K)  which is responding to cold Scandy temps this year (good for ice extent), and Greenland (+42K), which tends to be not quite so good. 

All in all, a very good winter refreeze season so far, with the early refreeze within the basin expected to see thicker ice come the summer melt, and who knows, possibly more multi year ice,  next year..

Further ice extent growth is less meaningful at this point in the year,as it will all melt out come the next 'melt' season.

For us to see improved ice extent figures from here on in,  we will have to see ice 'spread' in the perimeter areas of Baffin, Greenland, Barents, Bering and the SOO. There is a much improved chance of this occuring this year with the colder Arctic temperatures (still up be about 10C based upon last year).

But as with the weather in the UK,           nothing can be taken for granted.  

I shall now be reducing these reports to weekly, unless something of real interest pops up. 

So wishing you all seasons greetings and more particularly a very healthy New Year.

Happy ice watching......

MIA

 

[Ice Day]

49 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Arctic Sea Ice extent heading towards 21st century records...

My  Xmas greetings on Christmas Eve, with my last review of ice and snow before the break.

Snow coverage has now moved westwards into Eastern Europe, and is now at normal levels worldwide for the time of year.

 

It is the sea ice extent which is continuing its eye-catching performance this year.

SInce the last update Masie sea ice extent has advanced by 3 century breaks (normal is about 50K Km2 at this time of year).

The last 3 days recorded consistent increases of (+116K, +119K and +123K) to put us within 50K of being within the highest on record for the date for Masie  (12,915K Km2).  

Even Jaxa has moved to within 100K Km2 (see below) for this century.

  for Masie and for Jaxa    (goes back to 2000)

More details here for anyone interested  in the previous years extents on Jaxa  -  (thanks to the ASIF).

  which now sees it as 13th out of the last 17, but another century may well see it at 16th..

 

So why has this happened?

Well this year has had more consistent Arctic cold during the winter freeze season than for 10years.

This enabled a rapid re-freeze for all the Arctic basin internal areas, with particularly strong ice growth in the stagnant (in the 10 years up to this year)  areas around the Russian Arctic.

By the end of November most of the basin was iced over.

However,  one of the peripheral areas - mainly the Eastern US - , had seen below average growth.

That is now  in the process of being corrected, and this is what has caused the rapid increase in the extent figures, and has allowed the numbers to rise well in to the very top of the range extents.

Hence the last 3 days have seen growth in Hudson (+185K) -  the bay is now 90% full -, and even the Hudson Straits are rapidly icing over as the temps drop below -30C. The Straits ice has now joined up with the ice moving down Baffin Ocean  (+67K), which itself has now started to freeze further south along the Newfoundland coastline. 

Elsewhere the increases have come about in the Barents Sea (+33K), which is moving South of Svalbard  now towards the East (towards the Severnia Islands) , and the SOO (+5K), even though the ice here is stalled partially at the moment, as it also has  in the Bering Sea (-2K).  These are the next 2 areas which one normally expects to increase in the next few weeks.

Also of interest is growth in the Baltic (+6K)  which is responding to cold Scandy temps this year (good for ice extent), and Greenland (+42K), which tends to be not quite so good. 

All in all, a very good winter refreeze season so far, with the early refreeze within the basin expected to see thicker ice come the summer melt, and who knows, possibly more multi year ice,  next year..

Further ice extent growth is less meaningful at this point in the year,as it will all melt out come the next 'melt' season.

For us to see improved ice extent figures from here on in,  we will have to see ice 'spread' in the perimeter areas of Baffin, Greenland, Barents, Bering and the SOO. There is a much improved chance of this occuring this year with the colder Arctic temperatures (still up be about 10C based upon last year).

But as with the weather in the UK,           nothing can be taken for granted.  

I shall now be reducing these reports to weekly, unless something of real interest pops up. 

So wishing you all seasons greetings and more particularly a very healthy New Year.

Happy ice watching......

MIA

 

Thanks MIA, your updates are always extremely comprehensive and you provide some really good information. Have a great Christmas and I look forward to your next update.

[claret047]

1 hour ago, Ice Day said:

Thanks MIA, your updates are always extremely comprehensive and you provide some really good information. Have a great Christmas and I look forward to your next update.

From another Chelmsfordian I concur with what you say. This thread is the first one I look for in the winter each time I access Netweather.

Thanks MIA (Dave) for your wonderful input. All the best to you and your family over the Festive period. I trust you and your wife are well.

Merry Christmas to you too ID and to all others who contribute to or read this thread.

Kind Regards

Dave

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, claret047 said:

From another Chelmsfordian I concur with what you say. This thread is the first one I look for in the winter each time I access Netweather.

Thanks MIA (Dave) for your wonderful input. All the best to you and your family over the Festive period. I trust you and your wife are well.

Merry Christmas to you too ID and to all others who contribute to or read this thread.

Kind Regards

Dave

Thanks Dave

We are fine here, and I trust you are also OK.

Its been a tough year for us oldies.

But we look forward to another (hopefully better for all) year.

Dave 

[Midlands Ice Age]

My word how the time flies!!   Sea Ice still at or near record for the last decade.

Arctic temperatures are becoming very cold once again.

The time has flown by and it is now 7 days since my last report.

Last 7 days have seen a slow start, but as the week has progressed we have seen very good increases in extent.

Today's Masie sea ice extent is at 13,285 K Km2, an increase of (+315K) over the last 7 days. 

This has been achieved by individual day changes of (+65K, -75K, -27K, +75K, +58K, +71K, and today an increase of 114K).

This leaves the sea ice extent still in a very strong position with JAXA in 14th out of the last 15 years -

   (c/o ASIF)

 

Whitling away some time whilst in Covid lockdown. I examined the dates for which the sea ice extent crossed the 13M KM2 line.

As can be seen, 2021 is right up there with the best.

2006 - 3/1/2007         2007 - 31/12/2007    2008  - 30/12/2008     2009 - 27/12/2009    2010 - 2/1/2011     2011  - 26/12/2011

2012  - 24/12/2012  2013 - 23/12/20013    2014  -  23/12/2014    2015 -  29/12/2015   2016 - 4/1/2017    2017 -  7/1/2018

2018  - 2/1/2019       2019 - 31/12/2019      2020  -   4/1/2021        2021 - 25/12/2021

Apart from the mid teens,  2021 is the earliest and is better than most years in the 2000's..

 

During the last week, the outer perimeter areas have started to pull their weights (in freezing) -

1) Hudson is now more or less iced over (though quite a bit later than the last few years), having gained (+62K). Hudson Straits having more or less iced over, and now meets the Baffin ice sheet (+27K) which is moving erratically southwards. 

2) The Baltic has continued its steady early progress (+13K),  whilst above Scandinavia, Barents (+70K) seems determined to 'capture' the Bear Isles very early this year. Presumably the bears will be happy to be 'home' very early for their New Year Turkey diner! 

3)  The SOO is now freezing at normal rates (+86K), whilst the Bering Sea is now in slow down mode (-10K).

 4) The smaller seas of Cooke Inlet (+2K) and the Yellow Sea (+5K) began their (oft much later) freeze up.

The Arctic temperatures are still lower (although a bit higher than before Xmas), than they have been for many years.

and they look as though they may fall more steadily downward again in the next few days.

  as high pressure starts to dominate again 

 

I am still hopeful that we may approach the rare 15M KM2 sea ice Masie extent this year.  It is going to require some of the Arctic cold pool to 'spill out' to achieve the task. We will see.

Meantime - all for this year.   May we all have a better and healthier New Year... I raise my glass...... Cheers!

See you in 2022.

 MIA

 

Edited December 31, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

An end of year update (2021) with the final numbers - still moving ever closer to the last 2 decades records. Infact, NSIDC has just  moved us into record territory.

Seeing as we have already had published an end of year report already published in the Arctic Sea Ice thread (based upon NSIDC data to the 26th/27th), and we now have the completed data, I thought that I would devote an end of year report with the final Arctic sea Ice extent values as given by all the 3 major models.

These are  JAXA (Japanese), NSIDC (Nasa) and Masie (also Nasa, but for US Navy use) .

Well this morning JAXA has updated on 1 Jan (31st data) showing it is 16th out of 18th.  Today's data (1st Jan) shows that we only have 2011, to beat to suggest that we are seeing the best ice refreeze in 20 years. (going back to 2003).

Data from Arctic Sea Ice Forum ---

   

December total average figures (current performance) are presented below - 

      

 

Today's data has added a further above average  70K Km2 to the totals and is now just a couple of days from taking the date record for the last 18 years.

          and as can be seen there are drops ahead for 2011/12, the year still in contention.

Now On to MASIE.....

Masie also added a further (+55K)  to the total I published yesterday, to the sea ice extent for the 31st, which has left the total at 13,340K Km2).

This is just (-10K and -13K) behind the afore mentioned years of 2011/ 2012.  Once again these numbers look likely to be overtaken in the next 2 days.  As those years recorded little extra extent gains in the next 5 days.

    As can be seen way out, now, in front of the last few years.

NSIDC

NSIDC is the user and graphical interface used by most sea ice investigators due to its longer history of records going back to 1979.

However the graphical interface is not all that good, but the numbers for the 31st have just updated. 

Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx (live.com)

Screenshot 2022-01-02 11.49.30.png

WWW.DROPBOX.COM

---

Dropbox is a free service that lets you bring your photos, docs, and videos anywhere and share them easily. Never email yourself a file again!

The latest value is 13,183K Km2  for the 31st. (see above screenshot)

 For the previous highest, we have  to go back to 2003 where 13,387K Km2 was recorded.

2011 - the year in contention for the 2 other major reporters was at 13, 180K Km2.

Therefore NSIDC has already reached the record for the last 18 years as at 31st December.!!!

 

So, as per the end of the year 2021 we are at recent record highs for Northern Hemisphere  'ARCTIC' sea ice extent. 

Look back at end of year 2020 where Masie was at 12,765K Km2 at day 365  (3rd lowest out of 18), and then consider that in July 2021, we were looking at a possible cliff edge for the ice, one can see a very remarkable recovery, in the last 6 months.

(Whilst JAXA was also no less than 530,000K Km2 below this year, and also in 3rd lowest position)..

Is it significant?

Well - only if this event results in more of the 'older' ice after the coming summer melt. It must be expected that increased thicknesses will be seen, Will the summer melt be kind to the ice? Time and the weather will dictate.

MIA

Edited January 2, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Latest news is worth a 2 day update.... 

** JAXA has now also hit the highest for 18 years.....  **

Yesterday JAXA hit the highest since the winter of 2003/4 when a near century gain (+94K Km2) overtook both 2006/7 and 2011/12.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, it had a small  drop today to move it back to 16th position.

Graphic thanks to the ASIF - 

      

So we are left with just Masie to break through to the early 2000 records. It will be an all time high for Masie as it 'only' goes back to 2006(!!!). However it is very close and may well happen in the next few days. 

Currently we are seeing a 'dream scenario'  for ice growth.

This has seen the Central basin fill quickly, and now we seem to have transferred enough of the cold outside the basin (with perfect timing), to see quite a rapid rate of refreeze in the peripheral areas of Baffin, Bering, the S.O.O. and Barents.

All look to be refreezing at a steady rate, and looking forward to the next 10 days forecasts in Climate Reanalyser (GFS - so no guarantee!!, beware!),  I see that all the key areas above are forecast to have temperatures below the average, whilst the Central basin undergoes a slightly milder period (still with maxes around -20C, and minimums around -30C to -40C  though!).

Large parts of Siberia are this year, seeing the kind of temperatures they have been missing for a number of years. Minimums below -60C are being recorded almost daily, with daytime maxes above -40C quite widespread. 

A spill of the Arctic temperatures spilling out to the UK, is the only thing spoiling the party!!!!

So the new year still leaves me feeling quite optimistic that the years final maximum will be a large increase on the last decades very average performance.

 MIA

 

 

        

Edited January 4, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

AND....... ONE DAY LATER.... Masie breaks the 2010/11 barrier and as per today is also now at a record for the date.

That's all 3 data providers  that have broken their date records for the last 18 years, within the week.

Masie increased by a whopping (+198K Km2) today, following gains of (+55K,+34K, +24K, +22K and the 198K) in the  5 days, to give a date record of 13,618K Km2 - better than 2011/12 by (+22K).

As predicted, sea ice extent increased rapidly in Barents (+83K), as winds turned to the east or North East.

Also Baffin (+32K) -  which is now icing into the Labrador Sea.... 

Bering (+102K) also improved with Northerlies taking over, and the SOO (+37K) improved the oceanic icing.

Baltic also improved with a gain of (+15K) in the last 2 days. 

Smaller gains were recorded in  Greenland and the Yellow Sea (China) as it now starts to add ice.

Masie is now seeing growth of above 500K from the last 5 years ice refreeze.

This is all means that 15,000K Km2 is still a distinct possibility.

Despite the recent changes to the DMI ice thickness and volume model, it is clear that the ice thickness as still growing quickly in the Russian oceans with many places already recording depths of grater than 1.5 meters and still nearly 3 months of increase still to be recorded. It is not good that we have no thickness and volume reliable models to confirm.

MIA

 

[Northwest NI]

Good news!

[nobble]

Having followed this for 5/6 years

this is really exciting ice growth , be great to see this continue for the next 10/11 weeks .

be also good to see the Baltic fully freeze up then bring some north east winds to our shores .

it would be great to see favourable summer conditions to help keep as much as these gains as possible . 
from all the doom and pessimistic theories about the slow demise of ice continuing year on year , this is a real tonic although unexpected .