Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[Wheezer]

Bethel AK record low temperature of -27F (-32.8C) for Nov 28th was tied Sunday morning. The lowest November temp on record is -31F (-35.0C) on Nov 30, 1939. That could be tied or broken Monday morning.
King SALMON AK tied the record November all time low of -28. (1917, 1988)

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 hours ago, Wheezer said:

Bethel AK record low temperature of -27F (-32.8C) for Nov 28th was tied Sunday morning. The lowest November temp on record is -31F (-35.0C) on Nov 30, 1939. That could be tied or broken Monday morning.
King SALMON AK tied the record November all time low of -28. (1917, 1988)

Took a look at the latest CR to see what it made of it in general.

Firstly the anomaly chart for today (GFS based), then the min temp and then the SLP  ---

          

One can see in (1) that it is indeed very cold in Alaska (anoms of -20 - 25C are showing!!), from (2) that min temps are not as low as say Siberia or Greenland (where -50C is showing widely and also that (3), the Arctic is currently dominated by high pressure once again. As regards Alaska, I am guessing that it is also fairly breezy with these cold temps, hence the huge anomaly..

Also from the SLP charts, it is clear that low pressure is still 'blocking' the entrance into the Arctic from the Pacific. At the same time there is still no drive from the Atlantic into the central Arctic.

Moving on to the end of the week (+5days),  (when we seem to have so much confusion in the UK, as regards the Atlantic), and we can see that little is changing to our north.

               

So apart from a slight shrinkage of the HP, and a slight shuffling of the Atlantic into Kara area of Russia,nothing much is expected to change , it is still bitterly cold. 

 Certainly there is no sign of the Vortex setting up over the Arctic Oceans,.    If anything, a split vortex still looks favorite. 

 I am not a forecaster so make your own judgement.

 

 

Today's Masie shows a small drop of (-10K)  in total sea ice extent, - not all surprising after yesterdays huge increase in the US based oceans.

All the Russian oceans made small gains, whilst those in US waters contracted.

MIA

Edited November 29, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Re the above,  and referring back at the central Arctic general cold this year.....   

Looking back at the DMI above 80 degrees temperatures, I can only see 2 occurrences where the current temperatures are rivaled,

Firstly is (strangely enough) 2010 when the temperature hit 242K at the end of December,

If one looks for an equivalent November temperature then we must go back to 2004 when a DMI temperature of just below 245K was reached in the middle of  November.

                    

 

For further reference this year looks as if it may continue to fall a little more yet. The current temperature for interest is 245.8K.

Before that one has to go back to the late 1990's for figures below 240K. 

If the current pattern with the positions of the blocking lows and central high pressure continues to dominate,   then who knows......

MIA

 

 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

MIA

what also stands out is the ‘smooth line’ decline. Quite stand out

 BFTP

[johncam]

On 30/11/2021 at 11:36, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

MIA

what also stands out is the ‘smooth line’ decline. Quite stand out

 BFTP

Let's hope the latest GFS doesn't come off as above zero temps just about reaching the pole , would make a big dent in sea ice  around barents , north greenland 

[Midlands Ice Age]

8 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

MIA

what also stands out is the ‘smooth line’ decline. Quite stand out

 BFTP

 

I had noticed that...

Thought it initially was  a new method of temperature adjustment....

But it is for real. The only blip was the first week in November, when a vicious low developed over the Kara and ESS in situ. It did not expand outside the Arctic so didn't let any real warmth in.

The rest of the freeze season has seen the protection low in the Bering Ocean, and a lack of 'push' from the Atlantic, this has allowed a high pressure to dominate the Central Arctic. Its position was ideal for the air to circulate around the Arctic region, Each time it circled it passed over the Greenland and Upper Siberia mainlands, and it seemed to drag in  the colder air over towards the pole.

However what has caused this weather to stick around for so long is it what needs to be answered?

MIA

 

 

Edited November 30, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 hours ago, johncam said:

Let's hope the latest GFS doesn't come off as above zero temps just about reaching the pole , would make a big dent in sea ice  around barents , north greenland 

The GFS is changing every 6 hrs for here in the UK.

The Arctic is due for change, but to what is equally uncertain.

We will have to wait to see.   

MIA

[johncam]

On 30/11/2021 at 22:30, Midlands Ice Age said:

The GFS is changing every 6 hrs for here in the UK.

The Arctic is due for change, but to what is equally uncertain.

We will have to wait to see.   

MIA

Indeed , as you say we will have to wait and see as the weather very rarely doest what we want.

Thanks Jofn 

[Faronstream]

A Summary of autumn 2021 arctic ice increase

Oct: 5200>>8243= +3043km2

Nov:8351>>10,789=+2438km2

 

1981-2010: Oct 6856>>9545=+2689

                     Nov:9633>>11,630=+1997

 

Total 2021 versus 1981-2010

2021: +5481km2

1981-2010: +4686km2

A great season so far if you ask me.

[Moon child]

Right, here go's , my sole theory , say the north Atlantic drift , the northern portion of the amoc,  has had over the last few years an infusion of fresh water , this year particularly large, now if  this has slightly diluted sub surface layers via interwoven fresh too salination , during summer not noticeable , but as winter rolls on, buy my understanding the jet stream follows warm cold corridor seasonal variations, if you , say cut surface connection at sea level , then as cold intensifies the jet stream would lose it's connection too surface. As the colder dense pool wouldn't have surface resistance , therefore would correct south, as temperature anomalies would suggest, in my humble view this should be looked at , theory .

[Wheezer]

A months worth of ice.  Hudson Bay continues to be the largest deficit.  Being relatively shallow though it shouldn't take long to catch up over the next few weeks

[Wheezer]

Alaska November temperature departures from normal.  Some very impressive numbers especially the western half of the state 

 

Edited December 1, 2021 by Wheezer

[Wheezer]

Probably won't here much about November Alaskan cold other than this thread.  Not only Top ten coldest on record for many ,  but top 5 coldest  for a few and numero uno for a couple ever recorded at these observation posts

 

 

Edited December 2, 2021 by Wheezer

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 hours ago, Wheezer said:

Alaska November temperature departures from normal.  Some very impressive numbers especially the western half of the state 

 

That +1.1 at the top surrounded by -2, -3, -4 and -8 strikes me as odd

 

BFTP

[Wheezer]

Canadian November departures slightly above normal for most of the country with the Hudson Bay area highest at 4.8 , hence the slow ice growth there

 

Chukchi Sea November average daily #seaice extent was the highest since 2001 in

@NSIDC

[summer blizzard]

19 hours ago, Wheezer said:

Probably won't here much about November Alaskan cold other than this thread.  Not only Top ten coldest on record for many ,  but top 5 coldest  for a few and numero uno for a couple ever recorded at these observation posts

 

 

Raging -PDO and Victoria mode.

[Midlands Ice Age]

After another 4 days time for another update.

Snow now consolidating in Central Europe, and slowly moving south in North America.

 

 

Signs of growth in both over the next few days as colder air sweeps in.

 

Masie Sea Ice now up to 11,393K Km2 after last 4 days growth of (--11K, +64K,  +76K and today +146K), leaves the extent sprinting away again.

 

Changes have involved a steady consolidation in Bering (+58K), and a now gradual increase in the SOO (+10K), as the ice moves into the bays further south and west. 

Kara has stalled after good gains (-9K), but is now icing along all the shores of the Severnya Island, before moving out into the Barents Sea. Barents meanwhile is now icing rapidly from the North.  (+68K).

Fram flow has speeded up and this has resulted in Greenland (+35K) gaining areas south of Iceland for the first time.

Over in North America Baffin (+32K)  gains again as the area starts to cool. Hudson (+68K ) has now started the icing over the south Hudson Bay which will now rapidly add its 1million K Km2 to the worlds total of extent.

The Baltic, after 3 stalled days, increased by (+6K) today, and might be expected to increase rapidly as  the Gulf of Finland has now started to freeze over,

Other areas not mentioned, are now full.

Temperatures have stalled over the last 3 days,after their falls last week down to -245.1K. the high pressure now being squeezed out into North America is leading to a more low pressure dominated Arctic Basin.  

    

-    Although a finger of high pressure does stretch over the pole into Barents. Possibly this may indicate a split vortex before too much longer.

Elsewhere in the Strat, wave breaking is now going into action, with the Ozone really showing over Bering and into the North American continent, 

Will this effect the early vortex formation?, (which is  occuring higher up), and prevent the troposphere and stratosphere  connecting together to create the normal all conquering Polar Vortex?

 

MIA

Edited December 3, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

On 02/12/2021 at 08:08, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That +1.1 at the top surrounded by -2, -3, -4 and -8 strikes me as odd

 

BFTP

It maybe ties in with coastal ice levels, though. Even now, there is a pocket of 10-30% ice near there so a little bit of open sea to keep the temperature up?

NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

 

[Wheezer]

  

Sea ice radar

Edited December 4, 2021 by Wheezer

[Wheezer]

 Red-ish colors show winds at gale force or higher at 3am AKST Sunday. This will bring widespread blizzards and significantly impact sea ice in the eastern Bering Sea . Tropical Tidbits

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just a quickie this morning...

Total 'flip' in the pressure patterns this morning in the Arctic.

The central high pressure over the central area has been replaced by low pressure.

The high pressure itself is forced back into North Western North America.

Expect a big change in weather conditions with winds reversing compared to last 6 weeks.

Expect to see rapid growth of the laggard ice in Hudson,,etc, but what happens to the ice front in Bering remains doubtful.

MIA

[johncam]

On 05/12/2021 at 09:13, Midlands Ice Age said:

Just a quickie this morning...

Total 'flip' in the pressure patterns this morning in the Arctic.

The central high pressure over the central area has been replaced by low pressure.

The high pressure itself is forced back into North Western North America.

Expect a big change in weather conditions with winds reversing compared to last 6 weeks.

Expect to see rapid growth of the laggard ice in Hudson,,etc, but what happens to the ice front in Bering remains doubtful.

MIA

Hi MIA

Could also impact Barents and Greenland sea

[topo]

Lots of snow in southern Norway, almost 50cm in some places close to the coast.

The forecast for the new week is exceptional, especially for the locations a bit more inland.. Probably the most snow in December in many, many years..

Model charts for Aust-Agder (Snow depth) | ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days)

METEOLOGIX.COM

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ECMWF IFS HRES (10 days) - Current forecast valid for 12/11/2021, 07:00am of parameter "Snow depth", model chart for map "Aust-Agder"

[Wheezer]

From Sunday, NOAA

Severe storm overnight over western Alaska. Wind sensors have failed at many FAA automated stations, but winds that have been recorded thru 6am AKST Sunday include 99mph at Tin City, 75mph at Savoonga, 67mph Hooper Bay, 59mph Shishmaref and 57mph at Nome.

[Aleman]

It looks like a quiet week ahead for snow - except for the West Coast of North America, perhaps.  Lots of snow on the Sierra Nevada range (2 metres on tops?) and all the way down to skirting Los Angeles and into Baja? Really? It could be interesting if it came off.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS

 

 

Bear Valley Ski resort has 102cm in its 9-day forecast.

Ski USA - California

WWW.SNOW-FORECAST.COM

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Ski USA - California: Check out the latest reports for piste and off-piste snow conditions. All the essential resort guide information, snow reports and webcams are here for planning your trip to ski resorts in...

 

Edited December 7, 2021 by Aleman