Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2021/22

[mountain shadow]

5 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Early snow for the Pyrenees and Atlas Mountains. Russia now completely covered 

 

Sorry for being pedantic, but Russia is not completely covered yet.

Its Western border with the Baltic states, Belorussia, Ukraine and down to Georgia Armenia do nit have any snow, i would hazard a guess that area is larger than France and Germany combined.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Quite interesting..

The section at the end (below) refers to two other nuclear ice breakers which are moored in Murmansk.

''In addition comes six vessels ice-locked in the waters near Pevek on the north Chukotka coast.

According to authorities in the Chukotka region, also nuclear powered icebreaker Yamal was to be sent to assist the vessels. However, as of the 16 of November, the icebreaker was stilled moored in Murmansk. The same was the case with sister ship 50 Let Pobedy.''

They do seem also to have been caught unawares by the sudden freeze up.

I have been watching for the ice to start to freeze up in the bay of Murmansk for a sign of the ice extending along the coastline of Barents, but so far, it doesn't seem to have got past Archangel. 

As far as I am aware there should be no reason not to put them into use. Perhaps they think they will hold them back as they  may be needed around Murmansk shortly!!

 MIA

Re the above main article(reported by Wheezer), I took a look at the last months thickness maps for the area-

Perhaps we can see why they are having problems at the moment - 

            Month ago                                                                1st  Nov                                              Today

    

(Expand) The thickening of the passage between Wrangle Island and Siberia is  the key to their problems, I think. 

MIA

Edited November 23, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age
Stray data appeared

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Re the above main article(reported by Wheezer), I took a look at the last months thickness maps for the area-

Perhaps we can see why they are having problems at the moment - 

            Month ago                                                                1st  Nov                                              Today

    

(Expand) The thickening of the passage between Wrangle Island and Siberia is  the key to their problems, I think. 

MIA

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 more days data from Masie........ Ending with yet another century increase.......

 

Snow is moving westwards now into Europe. By the weekend we could see a lot of Europe under white pixels. (perhaps even some of the UK)  

 

 

Masie has increased by (+62k),  (+30K) and  (+116K) over the 3 days to give a new total of 10,639K Km2.

It has dropped 1 position on the JAXA history dataset, but is still within 100K Km2 of the next 4 years, and still could show a clean pair of heels/breakthrough if the latest days freeze continues for a couple of days..  

 

Today's Masie areas showed only one loss in the latest figures, surprisingly  (Central (-3K) where a southerly breeze  north of Svalbard pushed the main pack northwards slightly. Perhaps of more interest is that this piece of the main pack is the last area above 80 degrees left to re-freeze.

Kara (+22K) moved to cover Novaya Zemlya, and  next door there were gains in Barents (+3K), now making progress along the coastline, as well as starting to move towards Bear Isle again for the 3rd year in a row..

Greenland expanded (+33K) as it (unexpectedly) moves eastwardfs out towards Iceland, rather than southwards..

However both Baffin (+15K) and Hudson (+15K) moved southwards. 

The big mover at the moment is Bering (+29K) which seems to be sprinting out to the ocean, with the cold SST's available to it in the north Pacific. 

(see below) 

Screenshot 2021-11-24 20.09.20.png

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Perhaps the most newsworthy piece of action at the moment is the temperatures within the Arctic Circle. 

Actual DMI temperatures show that the average is now at 249.2K (-34C) as per today. A full 9C lower than last year at the same date..

This is already very low, but Climate Reanalyser (GFS) is still showing even colder in the outlook. (see below for minimums) 

         Current                                                                        +3Days                                                   +10Days

         

Already the average mean climatic temperature (cf 1980 - 2000) of the Arctic  is at -0.8C.   From the above it looks as if this will move  even lower in the next 10 days.  Some of these 2 meter temperatures are worthy of notice,  Greenland is dropping below -60C,  even the main pack at  2 meters is at -35C, whilst Siberia only manages to reach -50C.

These temperatures have not been reached, in some winters, even in January.

It will mean that any northerly or easterly phase of weather we receive, will contain quite a bitter element!!!.

Meanwhile, Ozone is showing the signs of another 'wave breaking' event over the Bering Ocean about to move into the North of America.

 Will this cause  a Canadian warming in the not too distant future?.

 Off to grease my sledge now...

MIA 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Latest >> Polar ice-cap growing by the day 

 

[johncam]

If the PV sets up over North East Canada and Greenlsnd our part of the Arctic could quickly loose any ice gains 

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 hours ago, johncam said:

If the PV sets up over North East Canada and Greenlsnd our part of the Arctic could quickly loose any ice gains 

John..

Thanks for the info...yep the models seemed to have flipped this morning somewhat. 

Is it a temporary model blip or real? We will have to wait and see.

 However,if it happens, this would not be bad for the Arctic ice, but perhaps distasteful for us... (depending upon one's views), is that what is coloring your view? 

I was not aware that we had any part of the Arctic. What do you mean by 'our part of the Arctic'.?

If you mean the area directly north of us then yes it may not mean that we see records for extent set there this year. However ice has been slow in leaving Fram this year and any vortex over Greenland could be expected to push the forming central ice back into the Arctic.

Remember also, that the only really slow growth area of this year has been in North America. With any expected rapid growth (US Polar Vortex, etc)  there,  won't this then make this years growth/extent figures look even better?

Again remember that this year the whole of the average Arctic is especially cold.... Overnight figures for yesterday show  it has dropped by a further 1.3C and is now at -9.7C lower than  last year. (nearly -35C, 248K). 

Today the temperature will drop lower than the average for the pre-2000 years. That hasn't happened  in Autumn for many years.

 Unless we see a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) happening, then I cannot see much warmth returning this year to the Arctic. 

- and all that will really do is to expel the cold to the non- Arctic northern hemisphere.  -

 So not certain what you are expecting to happen within the Arctic?

I have attached the Climate Reanalyser climatic average anomaly temperature chart for yesterday. (remember that this is against the period 1979-2000) 

 The anomaly increased yesterday to -0.9C.

It really is impressive how suddenly this years cold temperatures have appeared!!. 

MIA  

 

.   

Edited November 25, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

Surely if we have favourable summer conditions for low ice melt , we could be in a great starting position next September with these gains ? 
 

does anybody think this is connected to really low air traffic pollution last year ?? 

[johncam]

On 25/11/2021 at 10:56, Midlands Ice Age said:

John..

Thanks for the info...yep the models seemed to have flipped this morning somewhat. 

Is it a temporary model blip or real? We will have to wait and see.

 However,if it happens, this would not be bad for the Arctic ice, but perhaps distasteful for us... (depending upon one's views), is that what is coloring your view? 

I was not aware that we had any part of the Arctic. What do you mean by 'our part of the Arctic'.?

If you mean the area directly north of us then yes it may not mean that we see records for extent set there this year. However ice has been slow in leaving Fram this year and any vortex over Greenland could be expected to push the forming central ice back into the Arctic.

Remember also, that the only really slow growth area of this year has been in North America. With any expected rapid growth (US Polar Vortex, etc)  there,  won't this then make this years growth/extent figures look even better?

Again remember that this year the whole of the average Arctic is especially cold.... Overnight figures for yesterday show  it has dropped by a further 1.3C and is now at -9.7C lower than  last year. (nearly -35C, 248K). 

Today the temperature will drop lower than the average for the pre-2000 years. That hasn't happened  in Autumn for many years.

 Unless we see a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) happening, then I cannot see much warmth returning this year to the Arctic. 

- and all that will really do is to expel the cold to the non- Arctic northern hemisphere.  -

 So not certain what you are expecting to happen within the Arctic?

I have attached the Climate Reanalyser climatic average anomaly temperature chart for yesterday. (remember that this is against the period 1979-2000) 

 The anomaly increased yesterday to -0.9C.

It really is impressive how suddenly this years cold temperatures have appeared!!. 

MIA  

 

.   

Hi thanks for the in depth response,  sorry yes I was talking about the European sector of the Arctic,  hopefully just a blip as you said  as we wouldn't want our sector to lose ice as it would dilute ant weather coming from there.

 

Thanks again 

John 

 

 

[Wheezer]

Seems snow, ice and cold of winter is catching too many by surprise.  And now coal to the rescue, oh the humanity!!

 

Pinched by energy crisis, Spanish coal plant slated for closure fires up

WWW.REUTERS.COM

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Soaring demand for electricity in Spain, where a cold snap is exacerbating an energy crunch, has pushed power company Endesa to restart a coal plant that has been...

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Wheezer

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 hours ago, nobble said:

Surely if we have favourable summer conditions for low ice melt , we could be in a great starting position next September with these gains ? 
 

does anybody think this is connected to really low air traffic pollution last year ?? 

Nobbie

Your first question/statement  COULD well be correct.

The cold temperatures this freeze up season started in July.

We have seen a rapid freeze up in the Siberian Arctic this year compared to the 'slaughter' of the ice there in recent years. 

 We are effectively (my estimate) heading for about a one month extension of the ice freeze-up season within the Arctic Basin,caused by the lower temps.

We must bear in mind that at these latitudes approximately 2 - 2.5 meters of ice will melt during the summer simmer. However, the ice is thickening rapidly up there at the moment, so one never knows.

So will any of it survive next years melt season and go on to create more multi year ice for next year?. That is  the real question!!!

One season of increased ice will not affect the long term trend.

It needs more than that...

 

As per your second question, I feel it is just one part of the puzzle,   

Why has the Arctic been so cold this last 4 months?

Well,  there is no doubt that it has been caused by  unusual and lengthy  (for the last 40'ish years) weather phenomena.

As  far as the Arctic is concerned it is due to the lack of any Atlantic intrusions and also of the position of the 'blocking' low pressures at the entrance to Bering, preventing any access to the Arctic of any milder winds from the worlds major ocean.

We have additionally (?) seen the elimination of the 5-10 years of the Pacific warm 'blob' in the N East of the Pacific.

See the SST anomaly map below - 

What has caused this long period of weather conducive to ice  freeze?

My belief is that it is combination of things from Jet trails to Ozone (Strat) , to GHGs and H2O and CO2 (Trop),  and also the  cyclic motions of both the sun and Oceans. 

 

Basically at the moment no one knows what has caused this to happen.

Maybe we will come back and address  the question again in one years time!!

MIA

PS I have tried to eliminate any discussion on GHG's in replying, so please continue to be mindful, in any further discussions. 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[samthefootball]

Do we think there will ever be a December type 2010 weather in the UK again. That was so good 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

As  far as the Arctic is concerned it is due to the lack of any Atlantic intrusions and also of the position of the 'blocking' low pressures at the entrance to Bering, preventing any access to the Arctic of any milder winds from the worlds major ocean.
 

MIA, it’ll take a run of years but I believe we’ve had a cycle of Atlantification and been through 3 x super pulses. 1978, 1998 and 2019.  The cycle is now believed over for 60 years.  Potential rapid ice recovery anticipated…could be fluke/coincidence….but it’s darn interesting.  This year’s ‘cold’ and ice is impressive.

 

BFTP

 

below is extract from peer reviewed research by Francesco Muschitiello who is a Fellow of Sidney Sussex College, Cambridge.

 

CREDIT: SARA GIANSIRACUSA

The Arctic Ocean has been getting warmer since the beginning of the 20th century – decades earlier than records suggest – due to warmer water flowing into the delicate polar ecosystem from the Atlantic Ocean.

An international group of researchers reconstructed the recent history of ocean warming at the gateway to the Arctic Ocean in a region called the Fram Strait, between Greenland and Svalbard.

Using the chemical signatures found in marine microorganisms, the researchers found that the Arctic Ocean began warming rapidly at the beginning of the last century as warmer and saltier waters flowed in from the Atlantic – a phenomenon called Atlantification – and that this change likely preceeded the warming documented by modern instrumental measurements. Since 1900, the ocean temperature has risen by approximately 2 degrees Celsius, while sea ice has retreated and salinity has increased.

The results, reported in the journal Science Advances, provide the first historical perspective on Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean and reveal a connection with the North Atlantic that is much stronger than previously thought. The connection is capable of shaping Arctic climate variability, 

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nobble]

6 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Nobbie

Your first question/statement  COULD well be correct.

The cold temperatures this freeze up season started in July.

We have seen a rapid freeze up in the Siberian Arctic this year compared to the 'slaughter' of the ice there in recent years. 

 We are effectively (my estimate) heading for about a one month extension of the ice freeze-up season within the Arctic Basin,caused by the lower temps.

We must bear in mind that at these latitudes approximately 2 - 2.5 meters of ice will melt during the summer simmer. However, the ice is thickening rapidly up there at the moment, so one never knows.

So will any of it survive next years melt season and go on to create more multi year ice for next year?. That is  the real question!!!

One season of increased ice will not affect the long term trend.

It needs more than that...

 

As per your second question, I feel it is just one part of the puzzle,   

Why has the Arctic been so cold this last 4 months?

Well,  there is no doubt that it has been caused by  unusual and lengthy  (for the last 40'ish years) weather phenomena.

As  far as the Arctic is concerned it is due to the lack of any Atlantic intrusions and also of the position of the 'blocking' low pressures at the entrance to Bering, preventing any access to the Arctic of any milder winds from the worlds major ocean.

We have additionally (?) seen the elimination of the 5-10 years of the Pacific warm 'blob' in the N East of the Pacific.

See the SST anomaly map below - 

What has caused this long period of weather conducive to ice  freeze?

My belief is that it is combination of things from Jet trails to Ozone (Strat) , to GHGs and H2O and CO2 (Trop),  and also the  cyclic motions of both the sun and Oceans. 

 

Basically at the moment no one knows what has caused this to happen.

Maybe we will come back and address  the question again in one years time!!

MIA

PS I have tried to eliminate any discussion on GHG's in replying, so please continue to be mindful, in any further discussions. 

Thank you for taking time to reply
interesting times in the Arctic and for once in my lifetime record refreeze rather than record melt , I will continue to watch with interest and learn

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just been reading about this which attempting to corroborate the readings of today from old logs of sailors  around the US.

They are based upon ships records from what is now the US coastguard services.

It  could  be of use to put the current changes into perspective.

More than 100 years of Arctic sea ice volume reconstructed with help from historic ships’ logbooks | UW News (washington.edu)

https://www.washington.edu/news/2019/08/08/more-than-100-years-of-arctic-sea-ice-volume-reconstructed-with-help-from-historic-ships-logbooks/ 

Next thing should be the 'older'satellite records (basically photos)  - which are available from 1959 to 1979.

On my trip to Alaska I was shown a wooden ship which was supposed to have navigated the North coast of the US (and back) in  the latter part of the 19th century, so we still have more data available to improve the science records via  more historical   perspectives.

MIA

[Northernlights]

On 25/11/2021 at 11:18, nobble said:

Surely if we have favourable summer conditions for low ice melt , we could be in a great starting position next September with these gains ? 
 

does anybody think this is connected to really low air traffic pollution last year ?? 

In my opinion yes sky colours are so much more vivid back to what I remember as a kid in the sixties with a big increase in colourful sunrises and sunsets

[Northernlights]

On 26/11/2021 at 09:38, Northernlights said:

In my opinion yes sky colours are so much more vivid back to what I remember as a kid in the sixties with a big increase in colourful sunrises and sunsets

Have to add to this as had to finish feeding cattle.Back in the three days after 9/11 I saw a photo online  from space of the outer edge of earths atmosphere before and after with the photo before showing a brown ring at  the edge of earths atmosphere and three days later it showed a white ring. Have tried to find  it online since with no success.

My thoughts are that this layer of pollution acts as a physical barrier and  stops some heat being radiated to space and given we had at least a year free of contrails this has allowed some cooling. So with the lag effect of solar minimum and this I think the Arctic and us will see a colder winter this year.

[nobble]

On 26/11/2021 at 12:48, Northernlights said:

Have to add to this as had to finish feeding cattle.Back in the three days after 9/11 I saw a photo online  from space of the outer edge of earths atmosphere before and after with the photo before showing a brown ring at  the edge of earths atmosphere and three days later it showed a white ring. Have tried to find  it online since with no success.

My thoughts are that this layer of pollution acts as a physical barrier and  stops some heat being radiated to space and given we had at least a year free of contrails this has allowed some cooling. So with the lag effect of solar minimum and this I think the Arctic and us will see a colder winter this year.

Certainly can tell it’s cold in the Arctic atm , look what the present northerly just brought !!

in recent years northerly outbreaks in January haven’t been this harsh 

[Don]

30 minutes ago, nobble said:

Certainly can tell it’s cold in the Arctic atm , look what the present northerly just brought !!

in recent years northerly outbreaks in January haven’t been this harsh 

Indeed, recent winter northerlies have been rather feeble.  Nice to see heavy snow falling this morning, even though it didn't settle down here.

Edited November 27, 2021 by Don

[Midlands Ice Age]

Time for my 3 daily update again.

Snow -    just starting to show in Eastern Europe  (Including for our Austrian readers).

  

 

Masie in the last 3 days  has had 2 lowish days and then the latest day is a century increase  (+36K), (+66K) and today (+106K) to give a total of 10,837K Km2.

The total is still in the top 4/5 of the last 16 years.

The lowest performing areas were again in North America with Baffin(-24K) and Hudson (+24K). The latter starting to freeze more heavily today, after 2 days of losses.

CAB Basin (+2K)  is nearing completion already, and is slowly gaining on Svalbard for its totality, whilst Greenland (+15K)  finally has made it passed Iceland on its way south, thanks to the Fram growth as our northerly  was pulled down through it.

Elsewhere Kara (+77K) is  now well past Novoya Severnya and heading westwards towards northern Scandinavia, and is now  freezing heavily again.

The same comments apply to Barents(+75K).

Elsewhere Bering (+43K) is completing the Eastern migration of the eastern side of the pack, and is nearly 3 weeks ahead of last year..  

A selection of the more aggressive ice areas for this year is depicted below -

 

 

The above is the selection from the Russian Arctic sea ice areas.  Exceptional for the last decade.

The temperature of the Arctic continues to fall and is now below the 1958 -2002 average as shown on the DMI chart for the first time during the freeze season for a couple of years. What is unusual about the chart is that there have been no warming interludes during this period.

The average temperature is now down to 247K about -26C, -  Now 10 degrees colder than the same date for last year.

Quite an incredible change really,  and there seems to be no signs of turning the cold around for the next few days.

The latest Ozone gravity fed wave continues to build over the Bering Sea. Interesting that high level blocking is also appearing in the Northern Hemisphere forecasts within the next couple of weeks.

With the Atlantic still pretty inactive,  it bodes well for our winter season.

MIA

Edited November 27, 2021 by Midlands Ice Age

[Winter wonder]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Dropping like a stone.  Good to see.

[Midlands Ice Age]

15 hours ago, Winter wonder said:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Dropping like a stone.  Good to see.

Yep...   and WOW

DMI has now dropped further to 246.2K overnight from that value, that represents no less than -27 degrees centigrade, a full 11C colder than last year.

HOWEVER also of real interest is the ice and snow changes overnight (although probably caused by the low  temperatures) is a MASSIVE 292K KM2 increase in Masie Sea Ice Extent today, to a total of 11,126K Km2 and once again up to 14th of the last 15 years,

Snow is becoming much more widespread in Central Europe now, and further snowfall across Europe today should show up by tomorrow on  these charts .

The major increases in Masie sea ice were recorded in North America which previously were being held back, but are now in a big catchup mode, However,  all areas saw an increase.

Hudson covered the north of the area in a fast freeze of (+86K), whilst next door Baffin (+46K) moved towards Newfoundland.

Next highest growth was Bering (+45K), now well out to the Ocean, and Greenland also saw the same gain.

 The above areas are all considered peripheral areas to the Arctic Ocean, but it shows that large gains can still be expected in the colder temps which are now spreading out from the main pack.

Kara (+27K) continues to engulf the Severnya Island on its way to Barents, and Barents  itself consolidated with (+9K).

Of possible significance is that all the 'outer' areas grew quickly today, with the SOO (+11K); the Cooke inlet doubling in size by (+3K), and most surprisingly Baltic rapidly filling in (+10K), in the Gulf of Bothnia. (see below)

Screenshot 2021-11-28 16.25.36.png

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This is already proving to be an unusual (for the last several years) ice growth season.  

 

MIA

[Wheezer]

A good chunk of western Alaska is threatening the record for all time cold November's.  Bering Sea Ice  continues to be the highest extent to date since 2012.  A brief late week warm up opening Dec should slow growth temporarily. 

 

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

UK pixels - in November !!

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is very interesting indeed and bery impressive.  After the coldest 6 month period on record in Antarctica we are now seeing a rapidly cooling Arctic (and getting colder all the time) with rapid ice recovery.  Widespread Cold and snow Records being broken on the NH continents this winter are imo going to be likely.  Large chunks of Alaska already displaying that as are other parts of the NH.  Any northerlies this year won’t lack a punch, so even if in this country we have transient shots….I suspect they’ll hold a punch.

BFTP