Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Frost HoIIow]

8 hours ago, Simon M said:

2012-13 was a back-loaded winter, with a cold February and very cold March.  For my mind it's the best back-loaded winter in recent years.

January 2013 was good here as well - turned progressively colder from about the 10th onwards and the month as a whole gave a good couple of snow events. So 2012-2013 had proper cold in the heart of winter too and not just back loaded. It was a decent winter and overall the best since 2010.

February and March 2018 was good but that winter was basically just 2 handfuls of days (and even that might be pushing it) that were genuinely cold between about 23rd Feb with the main beast arriving soon after and then 17th March culminating with the "mini beast". The December and January was mostly uneventful here.

Last winter up here was colder than 2018 overall but did not have the heavy snow that 2018 had. Had quite a few light coverings though so better than nothing.

Edited October 25, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[Catacol]

EPS starting November with a very nice looking Sceuro high anomaly and aleutian low anomaly. Keep it coming. Not a nice setup for the UK and Europe in the short term - could potentially get very wet into November.....but good to bank some long term vortex stress..

[Froze were the Days]

15 hours ago, Catacol said:

EPS starting November with a very nice looking Sceuro high anomaly and aleutian low anomaly. Keep it coming. Not a nice setup for the UK and Europe in the short term - could potentially get very wet into November.....but good to bank some long term vortex stress..

Yuck!...last winter we mainly experienced cyclonic cold (other than the week in February) - what ever happened to the cool/cold high pressure system? a rare beast now days. 

[SLEETY]

Only 10% chance of a cold winter and November given the  same chance from the MET. 

 

Forecast for November already looking a bit suspect, they appear to be going for usual setup of Icelandic low and Azores high throughout the winter 

I note they have to mention global warming as reason of possible little snow! 

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Only 10% chance of a cold winter and November given the  same chance from the MET. 

 

Forecast for November already looking a bit suspect, they appear to be going for usual setup of Icelandic low and Azores high throughout the winter 

I note they have to mention global warming as reason of possible little snow! 

 

Met going for something colder throughout November and quite firm in wording.. and so the reference to little cold November already in the bin!

[Frigid]

If this November turns out to be a cold one, I hope this doesn't affect the upcoming winter. We've seen many examples of cold Novembers preceding mild winters, a good example is November 2016. 

[SLEETY]

liking the gfs especially the end!!

Hopefully is picking up the correct trend,possibly turning much colder !

[Frigid]

There's been a common theme this year, the number of sudden switches in weather and notably the temperature. Look at February 2021, March-April 2021, July-August 2021 and now November 2021. Hoping it doesn't switch to mild later on. 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Frigid

[Sunny76]

21 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

actually there have been a lot of winters milder than 87-88..for example 88-89, 89-90, 94-95, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00, 01-02, 06-07, 07-08,..the list goes on

I said at the time of winter 87/88, it was one of the mildest. 
 

 

[damianslaw]

55 minutes ago, Frigid said:

If this November turns out to be a cold one, I hope this doesn't affect the upcoming winter. We've seen many examples of cold Novembers preceding mild winters, a good example is November 2016. 

It depends on where the cold has come from.. I'm not so keen on anticyclonic highs overhead or easterlies in November don't bode well for winter cold at least in December.. 1985 a classic example. 

However cold from the NW or N and diving troughs when the Atlantic is still ruling suggests at least we may not be entering winter in the normal base state. Look for meridional flow and NW-SE aligned jet. 1996 a good example.

[SqueakheartLW]

Those who think that our current long fetch SW pattern means that our chances of winter cold are over only need to look at what happened during November 2010

3rd Nov 2010

At this point during November 2010 there's no sign of what is about to happen. We are under mild long fetch SW winds and a zonal flow with the jet stream firing straight at the UK. At this point I thought we were in a run in to a mild start to the winter and after the previous 2009/10 cold winter I thought the chances of any cold in 2010/11 were basically zero.

6th Nov 2010

At this point we have already lost the mild SW winds and the jet is pushing southwards across Europe and beginning to push N across the Atlantic, setting up what becomes the prevailing pattern during the next week or so.

10th Nov 2010

Notice the unusual thing the jet stream is doing. It is pushing close to Greenland and Iceland before suddenly diving southwards into Europe. This is causing low pressure areas to suddenly dive when they get close to the UK down into Europe and on this particular day the chart is showing such an area of low pressure.

14th Nov 2010

Although the jet stream looks more "normal" here this still isn't a normal pattern either. The jet is further south than usual and also notice that weaker jet appearing over Greenland. That is a big sign of what is about to happen later in the month. Here we have another of these diving lows coming down from the NW again.

18th Nov 2010

The most important thing that sets up here and so therefore putting another puzzle piece into place is the build up of Scandi heights. This blocks off the Atlantic further and causes the jet to split into a Mediterranean arm and a northern Scandi arm. This means any low pressures arriving from the west have no real choice but to dive down into Europe and one such low is doing this very thing on this day.

22nd Nov 2010

Finally the pieces of the jigsaw begin to come together here. The Scandi heights have pushed north and have merged with the developing Greenland heights. This has forced the jet stream to arc northwards right over Greenland and stay well to the north past Scandi too. A weaker remaining jet is still seen diving into Europe but the northern jet is the dominating factor here. This is starting to drag cold air from a long way N and E but at this stage the UK isn't that cold.

26th Nov 2010

By this stage the colder air is now arriving in the UK and showers had been increasingly turning to snow by this stage and on this particular day a trough formed in the North Sea which then pushed westwards overnight giving the first covering of snow of the season for inland parts of the UK. The day after saw some very low minimums over the new snow cover.

30th Nov 2010

By the end of November 2010 it was about as extreme as it got during that month. Biting easterly winds throughout the day and a lot of snow was dumped overnight into the 1st of December where I live. I think it was over 40cm in the convergence zone that set up right above where I live. That snow covering was going to stick around right until the early part of January.

[damianslaw]

Reference to 2010, take a look at November and into Dec 2009, lots of long fetch SW airstream, before rapid change around the 9th Dec.. 

[Mapantz]

As someone who likes snow, I don't want a repeat of December 2010 again.  I saw more snow in February 2015 than that month.

[Premiere Neige]

2 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Those who think that our current long fetch SW pattern means that our chances of winter cold are over only need to look at what happened during November 2010

3rd Nov 2010

At this point during November 2010 there's no sign of what is about to happen. We are under mild long fetch SW winds and a zonal flow with the jet stream firing straight at the UK. At this point I thought we were in a run in to a mild start to the winter and after the previous 2009/10 cold winter I thought the chances of any cold in 2010/11 were basically zero.

6th Nov 2010

At this point we have already lost the mild SW winds and the jet is pushing southwards across Europe and beginning to push N across the Atlantic, setting up what becomes the prevailing pattern during the next week or so.

10th Nov 2010

Notice the unusual thing the jet stream is doing. It is pushing close to Greenland and Iceland before suddenly diving southwards into Europe. This is causing low pressure areas to suddenly dive when they get close to the UK down into Europe and on this particular day the chart is showing such an area of low pressure.

14th Nov 2010

Although the jet stream looks more "normal" here this still isn't a normal pattern either. The jet is further south than usual and also notice that weaker jet appearing over Greenland. That is a big sign of what is about to happen later in the month. Here we have another of these diving lows coming down from the NW again.

18th Nov 2010

The most important thing that sets up here and so therefore putting another puzzle piece into place is the build up of Scandi heights. This blocks off the Atlantic further and causes the jet to split into a Mediterranean arm and a northern Scandi arm. This means any low pressures arriving from the west have no real choice but to dive down into Europe and one such low is doing this very thing on this day.

22nd Nov 2010

Finally the pieces of the jigsaw begin to come together here. The Scandi heights have pushed north and have merged with the developing Greenland heights. This has forced the jet stream to arc northwards right over Greenland and stay well to the north past Scandi too. A weaker remaining jet is still seen diving into Europe but the northern jet is the dominating factor here. This is starting to drag cold air from a long way N and E but at this stage the UK isn't that cold.

26th Nov 2010

By this stage the colder air is now arriving in the UK and showers had been increasingly turning to snow by this stage and on this particular day a trough formed in the North Sea which then pushed westwards overnight giving the first covering of snow of the season for inland parts of the UK. The day after saw some very low minimums over the new snow cover.

30th Nov 2010

By the end of November 2010 it was about as extreme as it got during that month. Biting easterly winds throughout the day and a lot of snow was dumped overnight into the 1st of December where I live. I think it was over 40cm in the convergence zone that set up right above where I live. That snow covering was going to stick around right until the early part of January.

I remember the 26th November 2010 as I flew to Poland that evening (was a Friday). There was talk of snow but as I drove to the airport around 5.30pm it was just cold rain. Luckily my flight wasn't affected but the next day my dad messaged me to say that it had turned to snow overnight which had settled. I was disappointed but it ended up snowing in Poland so I didn't miss out. I returned on the following Monday night and struggled to get home from Birmingham to Yorkshire due to the snow. The coldest November weather I've known (I'm 44). Would love a re-run of that kind of weather again. I remember some mornings in the December seeing ice crystals sparkling in the weak sunshine. Quite magical, especially with around 30cm of snow on the ground. 

Edited October 26, 2021 by Premier Neige

[Catacol]

Watching ENSO conditions it would appear that the cooling in regions 3.4 and 4 has begun already to level off. Temps further east are still falling. If we can avoid a modoki we will be in better shape for blocking in the right areas, so let's hope 3.4 and 4 continue to level off and perhaps to the east we get more of a drop. A more basin wide event or eastern event is preferable.

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 26/10/2021 at 22:43, Catacol said:

Watching ENSO conditions it would appear that the cooling in regions 3.4 and 4 has begun already to level off. Temps further east are still falling. If we can avoid a modoki we will be in better shape for blocking in the right areas, so let's hope 3.4 and 4 continue to level off and perhaps to the east we get more of a drop. A more basin wide event or eastern event is preferable.

I noticed last year that La Niña was continually overplayed in the modelling. In truth we’ve been bumbling along with relatively little deviation from ENSO neutral. It was a big factor as to why the seasonal were wrong en masse last winter IMO.

[Frost HoIIow]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

As someone who likes snow, I don't want a repeat of December 2010 again.  I saw more snow in February 2015 than that month.

I'd move then if I were you

[Mapantz]

On 27/10/2021 at 00:55, Frost HoIIow said:

I'd move then if I were you

I value my geological location more than the weather! 

[Mapantz]

On 26/10/2021 at 22:43, Catacol said:

Watching ENSO conditions it would appear that the cooling in regions 3.4 and 4 has begun already to level off. Temps further east are still falling. If we can avoid a modoki we will be in better shape for blocking in the right areas, so let's hope 3.4 and 4 continue to level off and perhaps to the east we get more of a drop. A more basin wide event or eastern event is preferable.

Do second-year Nina's have any additional effects that need to be taken in to account? Like any leftovers? I ask that due to what CC mentioned above - hovering around neutral for some time in region 4.

[John88B]

Our local weatherman Fergie just gave a very interesting winter forecast on our local news. Nov/Dec/Jan expect below average temperatures with plenty of northern blocking with the chance of even colder outbreaks Jan/Feb. 

Very positive for cold lovers.

[Mapantz]

On 27/10/2021 at 19:05, John88B said:

Our local weatherman Fergie just gave a very interesting winter forecast on our local news. Nov/Dec/Jan expect below average temperatures with plenty of northern blocking with the chance of even colder outbreaks Jan/Feb. 

Very positive for cold lovers.

I'm finding these comments very bizarre! South Today have done it as well, but slightly different from that. Is this the BBC pushing it? Or Meteogroup?

A recipe for disaster.

[John88B]

4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm finding these comments very bizarre! South Today have done it as well, but slightly different from that. Is this the BBC pushing it? Or Meteogroup?

A recipe for disaster.

I'm not sure but I'll have whatever they're pushing

[Frost HoIIow]

34 minutes ago, John88B said:

Our local weatherman Fergie just gave a very interesting winter forecast on our local news. Nov/Dec/Jan expect below average temperatures with plenty of northern blocking with the chance of even colder outbreaks Jan/Feb. 

Very positive for cold lovers.

Did he? That's a bold move isn't it but certainly welcome. They do have access to models we don't so who knows.

[John88B]

5 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Did he? That's a bold move isn't it but certainly welcome. They do have access to models we don't so who knows.

Yep very positive. Here's a link 

Gloucester - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

14-day weather forecast for Gloucester.

 

[Chesil View]

22 hours ago, Mapantz said:

As someone who likes snow, I don't want a repeat of December 2010 again.  I saw more snow in February 2015 than that month.

I find that quite amazing Mapantz.

I lived and recorded weather at Winfrith Newburgh which is not that far from you at that time and we had  several noteworthy snowfalls in fact at Winfrith there were more days With snow lying in December 2010 than December 1962. There was a continuous snow from 17th-27th December inclusive.