Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all quick run down on the charts at present,nothing to exciting showing at present

but still signs from NWP of northern blocking occurring all be it a way out ,possibly in the

next week showing more positivity on the charts which I am sure will bring some excitement 

to all cold lovers.

[SqueakheartLW]

11th winter 2021/2022 update based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 04/11/2021

As per usual we have reached my winter update time again and after my return to a colder than average update last week following the mild nightmare fest 2 weeks ago can we continue with colder than average or is another mild update about to jump out at us once again. Time to summarize each month as normal.

December 2021

On this particular run for December 2021 the milder than average updates continued and thankfully this was by a relatively small margin again. The mean on this run came in at 5.48C which is +0.51C above the 1991-2020 December mean. This continues the general mild updates that the CFS is throwing out for December 2021 but when looking at other runs some colder Decembers do appear so this isn't nailed on as such.

January 2022

Last week was my coldest January 2022 update since the very first update back in late August. Can today continue the cold trend or will it be broken. Unfortunately we have swung back in the direction of milder than average again with a mean of 4.85C which is thankfully only a small +0.19C above the 1991-2020 January mean. All is not lost when close to average and there were some colder spells mixed in between milder ones so snow potential is still there.

February 2022

February 2022's update last week was unfortunately a milder than average one but did this week rescue the situation for cold? Yes it did as the mean came back in at 3.63C which is -1.27C below the 1991-2020 February mean. This maintains the general good record for February 2022 to come back colder than average. All the coldies can hope for now is that this comes off. The main problem with the later winter months is how far away they are compared with December so the runs are most likely to be accurate for December and less so later on.

March 2022

March 2022 has been the most reliable to give colder than average updates with the exception of 2 weeks ago. This week maintained the usual thing for March 2022 and another colder than average update again. Today we come in at 4.89C which is -1.85C below the 1991-2020 March mean. A little bit less cold than last week but not by very much. At present it seems March 2022 is the best bet for cold.

Overall December 2021 - March 2022 based on CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 04/11/2021

Overall we came away with a mean on this run of 4.71C which is -0.61C below the 1991-2020 mean for December to March. This thankfully helps to keep the small hope of a colder than average winter period overall. Hope this trend continues and with some very cold months showing up in some other runs at times it could be possible we come away colder than average in the end, especially as the La Nina seems to have stabilized at around an anomaly of -1C.

3 Updates latest trend

Here are the previous tri update means as well as the most recent at the bottom of the list

Update batch                  December 2021        January 2022        February 2022        March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 1, 2 and 3         4.17C (-0.80C)           3.11C (-1.55C)        2.76C (-2.13C)         4.02C (-2.72C)     3.51C (-1.81C)

Updates 2, 3 and 4         3.45C (-1.52C)           3.26C (-1.40C)        2.99C (-1.90C)         4.67C (-2.07C)     3.59C (-1.73C)

Updates 3, 4 and 5         4.58C (-0.39C)           3.61C (-1.05C)        2.88C (-2.02C)         5.03C (-1.71C)     4.02C (-1.30C)

Updates 4, 5 and 6         4.51C (-0.46C)           3.88C (-0.78C)        2.67C (-2.22C)         5.37C (-1.37C)     4.10C (-1.22C)

Updates 5, 6 and 7         5.70C (+0.73C)          4.84C (+0.18C)       3.51C (-1.38C)         5.16C (-1.58C)     4.80C (-0.52C)

Updates 6, 7 and 8         5.55C (+0.58C)          4.26C (-0.40C)        4.57C (-0.32C)         5.01C (-1.73C)     4.85C (-0.47C)

Updates 7, 8 and 9         6.97C (+2.00C)          4.76C (+0.10C)       5.01C (+0.12C)        6.06C (-0.68C)     5.70C (+0.38C)

Updates 8, 9 and 10       6.68C (+1.71C)          3.69C (-0.97C)        4.76C (-0.13C)         5.69C (-1.05C)     5.21C (-0.11C)

Latest                              December 2021       January 2022       February 2022      March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 9, 10 and 11   6.39C (+1.42C)         4.40C (-0.26C)       4.55C (-0.34C)        5.81C (-0.93C)     5.29C (-0.03C)

December 2021 - December 2021 has maintained it's position as the mildest month overall on my updates and this week is no exception. As update 9 was the freaky December 2015 ish mild update then this mean still features in the latest 3 update mean but due to update 11 turning out a less mild run than update 8 this means the 3 update mean has dropped from 6.68C (+1.71C milder) last week to 6.39C (+1.42C milder) this week. When next week's update comes out we should see a big drop in this rolling mean unless we turn out another freaky mild December 2021 run next time.

January 2022 - January 2022's 3 update mean has generally been bouncing around recently between milder, average and colder values. Unfortunately for cold lovers this week we have swung away from colder and to nearer average. Last week the 3 update mean stood at 3.69C (-0.97C colder) but this week we have swung to 4.40C (-0.26C colder). January is looking a bit uncertain as no clear outcome seems to be able to dominate at present. It could be said that January 2022 will be the month that most likely decides what the winter mean is likely to come out at.

February 2022 - February 2022 had been the most likely month to turn out colder but recently this chance has reduced. Despite a colder than average run today this hasn't altered the 3 update mean by very much. We have gone a little colder as last week stood at 4.76C (-0.13C colder) compared with this week 4.55C (-0.34C colder). Still hope but less so than there had been in my earlier updates.

March 2022 - March 2022 has been the most consistent to get a colder than average update and this week was no exception as it produced the month with the coldest anomaly. Despite this the 3 update mean has in fact got less cold. This is due to the fact that today's update 11 is actually less cold than the update 8 that no longer features in the rolling mean. We therefore have shifted slightly less cold from 5.69C (-1.05C colder) last week to 5.81C (-0.93C colder) this week. However this is the coldest anomaly so at present the most likely month to turn out below average overall.

Overall - Not particularly good news for coldies here despite a colder than average update 11 overall. This is because update 8 was colder than this one so we have really shifted back to about average temperatures for the 3 update mean. A shift from 5.21C (-0.11C colder) last week to a more or less average 5.29C (-0.03C colder) this week. Maybe average overall but not average for the individual months.

A new feature

I know I am focusing on the specific 00z CFS 9 monthly run that comes out every Thursday for my main winter updates but in the last few days I have been getting data from every single CFS 9 monthly run and have created what I call a 4 update rolling mean of CET values and their anomalies. This rolling mean is always the latest update averaged out with the 3 previous CFS 9 monthly runs and will always contain one 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z run in the mean.

I have also noted the highest and lowest achieved maximums and minimums to produce a coldest and mildest potential for each month as well as the overall highest and lowest. These daily minimum and maximum figures are only changed if a new one beats it in the higher direction for highest mins and maxes or the lower direction for lowest mins and maxes.

Rolling means

First below we have the rolling means from the last few days since I first started this. Note the first 3 lines all say N/A. This is because I have yet to get data for 4 runs at this stage so these values are not really an accurate representation of the rolling mean.

A good clear trend monitor this is. You can clearly see where the milder and colder runs are appearing in general. A string of milder runs appeared earlier on but in general the more recent ones have been colder. Notice that big mild December patch and also the recent very cold rolling means for January 2022 since yesterday and the day before featured a few cold January runs. Also notice March 2022 has in general been most reliable to produce the coldest updates too.

Latest rolling means and the highest and lowest potential tables

Below I have put in the averages, highest and lowest possible tables just for fun

As you can see in my data we have the latest rolling average figures but also the highest and lowest potential monthly averages so far. A December 2015 on steroids is possible if that 11.23C mean is achieved right down to a December 2010 repeat if we can get the -0.73C mean. You get the general idea of what I am showing here just for fun. Those extreme high and low means are extremely unlikely to actually verify.

[Catacol]

4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 week 5 has pushed even further in the direction of milder conditions for Christmas Day as we have set a new averaged out mean of 5.29C which is +0.73C above the 1991-2020 Christmas Day mean and this is an increase of the anomaly by 0.13C. This puts us at 4 milder updates and just 1 colder update so far so chances of cold if CFS is to be believed are reducing every week I do these updates.

While CFS long range is cannon fodder, I think this may be not too far from the mark. Latter part of December is likely to be too early for any SSW impacts (if we get a warming and reversal at all) and a reasonable bet regarding MJO passage would be that we would be under the influence of the less cold phases. This isn't to say that other factors can interfere - we could get a huge spike in momentum via a significant East Asian torque for example that could produce a curve ball....but if forecasting is at least partly about the balance of probability then the first half of the month looks the colder half.

That's probably now guaranteed the coldest Xmas period for 25 years and I'll be running for cover...but in managing probability outcomes there is always that 1% (1 in 100 year) context that can confound. See Dec 2010.

[virtualsphere]

ECM MJO ensembles give a little more amplification in phase 7 in the extended range.  A lot of spaghetti in there and many members also staying close to the COD.  Still, some promise here for potentially a colder spell as winter begins perhaps.

 

[jules216]

EC seasonal updated. How would you describe it? A lot if early season -NAO and very +NAO Feb. Good blocking undone by very poor pattern in central Europe (like I presumed )

[Don]

17 minutes ago, jules216 said:

EC seasonal updated. How would you describe it? A lot if early season -NAO and very +NAO Feb. Good blocking undone by very poor pattern in central Europe (like I presumed )

What a shame 

[booferking]

27 minutes ago, jules216 said:

EC seasonal updated. How would you describe it? A lot if early season -NAO and very +NAO Feb. Good blocking undone by very poor pattern in central Europe (like I presumed )

Plenty of Northerly blast for UK/IRE a petty for yourself tho i would say.

[damianslaw]

34 minutes ago, Don said:

What a shame 

NW- SE aligned jet and amplified with such blocking to the north. Cold Trough perhaps attached to UK early winter at least. Cold and cyclonic..

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, jules216 said:

EC seasonal updated. How would you describe it? A lot if early season -NAO and very +NAO Feb. Good blocking undone by very poor pattern in central Europe (like I presumed )

i would describe it as a very typical La Nina winter pattern

[Bullseye]

Anyone for game of spot the difference? 

 

 

[Bullseye]

As many on here have been thinking in typical La Nina fashion, latest ECM November update likely going for early winter cold. Will be interesting to see if SSW (if one was to happen) plays a part in second half on winter. 

 

 

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all GFS ECM GEM all showing some exciting charts,all be it in  that  distant time frame that

can change and will change.But this continued on and off show of pressure rising to our Northwest

with low pressure to our east /northeast is very encouraging,patient’s is now the word for around 

mid November charts will swing around for a while untill they can rubber stamp the position of this 

all important high pressure,fingers crossed to our NorthWest.

[Catacol]

6 hours ago, jules216 said:

EC seasonal updated. How would you describe it? A lot if early season -NAO and very +NAO Feb. Good blocking undone by very poor pattern in central Europe (like I presumed )

Standard stuff. 2 months of -NAO and a good statistical chance of an SSW is good by modern standards. The pretty colours on smoothed monthly anomaly charts are fairly pointless. 

[sebastiaan1973]

December looks good.

[bluearmy]

22 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

December looks good.

Good?   Clearly a pretty low bar ……

[sebastiaan1973]

50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Good?   Clearly a pretty low bar ……

Thanks. It shows a negative NAO. Which seems to me a good sign. 

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

December looks good.

January looks brutally cold here 

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Thanks. It shows a negative NAO. Which seems to me a good sign. 

Well clearly that swathe of high heights cannot sustain but where will the gaps appear?  History (and bad luck)  tells us that the euro heights will stick! 

[E17boy]

Hi Morning peeps

Hope everyone is ok

latest Met Office extended outlook

Settled conditions with high pressure most likely through the period. Conditions are likely to be less windy than the previous period overall, with stormy conditions much less likely than normal. Frost and fog becomes increasingly likely, with temperatures slightly colder than average initially with a chance of wintry conditions over northern hills. Overall remaining drier than average throughout this period, with temperatures generally near average.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Nov 2021

seems to have gone away from the NW to Northerly  winds in their last update. Going on a more drier theme also wintry precipitation only on northern hills , they have also taken out extending to lower levels from the last update.  Looks to me as they have moved away from the colder than average to generally average temperatures now.

Hmm I don’t know what to make out of this but according to this looks like high pressure taking over. Where this High  goes further on is s different story.

I conclude no strong signal yet for winter but lower temperatures possible for a time with high pressure giving the fog and frost. What happens after depends on what this high does so to be watched.

Have a great day all

regards 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, E17boy said:

Hi Morning peeps

Hope everyone is ok

latest Met Office extended outlook

Settled conditions with high pressure most likely through the period. Conditions are likely to be less windy than the previous period overall, with stormy conditions much less likely than normal. Frost and fog becomes increasingly likely, with temperatures slightly colder than average initially with a chance of wintry conditions over northern hills. Overall remaining drier than average throughout this period, with temperatures generally near average.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Fri 5 Nov 2021

seems to have gone away from the NW to Northerly  winds in their last update. Going on a more drier theme also wintry precipitation only on northern hills , they have also taken out extending to lower levels from the last update.  Looks to me as they have moved away from the colder than average to generally average temperatures now.

Hmm I don’t know what to make out of this but according to this looks like high pressure taking over. Where this High  goes further on is s different story.

I conclude no strong signal yet for winter but lower temperatures possible for a time with high pressure giving the fog and frost. What happens after depends on what this high does so to be watched.

Have a great day all

regards 

I'll take a high in November which is often very dull and dank. Hopefully would produce clear skies and sunshine with cold frosty nights and chilly days. 

[SLEETY]

Met office chop and change with these updates, so people need to stop hanging off these forecasts as if they were gospel, anyway their forecast for November in the 3 month  update looks bust already were going for a greater chance of a wet month than normal, doesn't look like happening now. 

 

Impossible to forecast  one month ahead  nevermind 3 months, with much accuracy  if they muck up the first month, just days after posting the 3 month seasonal update last month lol,. 

 

Might as well make your own guess how this winter will play out, probably he more accurate than the MET and the hundred of millions they invest in these super computers. 

[Mapantz]

On 06/11/2021 at 15:00, SLEETY said:

their forecast for November in the 3 month  update looks bust already were going for a greater chance of a wet month than normal,

Can you post me a link, please?

I've been searching, but I can't find anything.

[pdiddy]

17 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Can you post me a link, please?

I've been searching, but I can't find anything.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1secure.pdf

[sebastiaan1973]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/11/outlook-2021-2022-in-like-lion-out-like.html

[Tom Clarke]

3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/11/outlook-2021-2022-in-like-lion-out-like.html

Interesting and from my limited understanding is similar to what the CP forecast is, though probably the Met are not seeing the possibility of the Strato warming hence the very mild possibilities for Jan & Feb.