Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Coopsy]

On 26/10/2021 at 19:40, SqueakheartLW said:

Those who think that our current long fetch SW pattern means that our chances of winter cold are over only need to look at what happened during November 2010

Yup - look at Jan 1987. One of the coldest spells of the 20th century (down to minus 23oC) and snowiest (for the SE up to 70cm in places).

Christmas ‘86 was super mild and within a few weeks that happened. It often seems it’s a precursor to some of the coldest weather. 

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, Coopsy said:

Yup - look at Jan 1987. One of the coldest spells of the 20th century (down to minus 23oC) and snowiest (for the SE up to 70cm in places).

Christmas ‘86 was super mild and within a few weeks that happened. It often seems it’s a precursor to some of the coldest weather. 

Also what happened following November 2009 which was one of the mildest and wettest, with lengthy spells of SW winds..

[Mapantz]

On 27/10/2021 at 20:00, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I find that quite amazing Mapantz.

I lived and recorded weather at Winfrith Newburgh which is not that far from you at that time and we had  several noteworthy snowfalls in fact at Winfrith there were more days With snow lying in December 2010 than December 1962. There was a continuous snow from 17th-27th December inclusive.

Not here there wasn't.

I can't remember the exact day, but what was supposed to be a great snow event, wasn't. About 3" fell, and then it turned to rain. The majority of snow melted, and then it froze in to ice everywhere and caused issues with transport and even walking. It was dreadful.

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Not here there wasn't.

I can't remember the exact day, but what was supposed to be a great snow event, wasn't. About 3" fell, and then it turned to rain. The majority of snow melted, and then it froze in to ice everywhere and caused issues with transport and even walking. It was dreadful.

That's interesting. None of the snow events at Winfrith turned to rain at all.

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

I'm finding these comments very bizarre! South Today have done it as well, but slightly different from that. Is this the BBC pushing it? Or Meteogroup?

A recipe for disaster.

I've just watched it on the link provided. It's from World climate services who have merged with Meteogroup. Certainly not met office.

[Catacol]

On 27/10/2021 at 01:06, Mapantz said:

Do second-year Nina's have any additional effects that need to be taken in to account? Like any leftovers? I ask that due to what CC mentioned above - hovering around neutral for some time in region 4.

Second year Ninas tend to produce a less strong blocking signal. But the dataset is not huge. For now this copy and paste from an article across the pond shows winter anomalies for east based or basin wide weak to moderate Ninas. Good enough for me as a very raw analogue….

[syed2878]

7 hours ago, John88B said:

Yep very positive. Here's a link 

Gloucester - BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

14-day weather forecast for Gloucester.

 

 Thank you for that link very interesting comments that I hope that are right but it is unusual for the BBC to make kind of statements like that day made over the last couple of weeks. let’s hope the BBC and the worlds climate service is right in what they are forecasting.

[SqueakheartLW]

Christmas 2021 Update Number 4

Christmas update number 4 is now upon us as I have collected another weeks worth of 2m temperature data from the CFS 9 monthly runs so here we go. Time to present the data I have gathered so far in the image below

As we can see here just like with weeks 1, 2 and 3 we have a whole range of outcomes from cold through to mild again. The main thing to take away from this week 4 is how we haven't set any new overall max or min values again but that doesn't really tell the whole story and the average of all the week's values is a much better indicator of the trend.

Week 1 came out like this

              Average Min     Average Max     Average Mean

Temp          3.61                      5.79                    4.70

Anom        +1.52                     -1.24                  +0.14

Week 2 came out like this

                Average Min       Average Max      Average Mean

Temp          4.21                       5.96                     5.09

Anom        +2.12                     -1.07                    +0.53

Week 3 came out like this

                Average Min        Average Max      Average Mean

Temp           2.71                      5.43                     4.07

Anom          +0.62                   -1.60                    -0.49

Week 4 summary

How does week 4 compare with weeks 1, 2 and 3 and will we be milder or colder than last week or maybe even milder or colder than weeks 1, 2 and 3. Included is the change from week 3 as well

                    Average Min                Average Max            Average Mean

Temp          3.96 (up +1.25)           6.36 (up +0.93)        5.16 (up +1.09)

Anom        +1.87                             -0.67                         +0.60

When we averaged out all of the max, min and mean data for week 1 it wasn't a great start for cold fans with the overall +0.14C milder anomaly. The coldies misery continued in week 2 when we shifted more into the direction of a milder Christmas overall and stood at a weekly average of 5.09C which was +0.53C above the 1991-2020 25th December mean. Week 3 was good news for coldies as we came back with an overall Christmas Day mean of 4.07C which is -0.49C below the 1991-2020 25th December mean. 

The bad news for coldies is that week 4 saw a big swing in the direction of milder and we came back with an overall mean anomaly of +0.60C above the 1991-2020 25th December mean which in fact places this 4th update as the mildest Christmas 2021 update so far. This means that so far we have had 3 milder than average updates and only 1 colder than average. Looks like a trend is beginning to show here and my initial hopes of a white Christmas or at least a cold and seasonable frosty one are already fading.

[Catacol]

21 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Looks like a trend is beginning to show here and my initial hopes of a white Christmas or at least a cold and seasonable frosty one are already fading.

Based upon CFS averages at a range of 2 months? Sleep easy. Maybe Xmas will end up being mild….but as a long range tool for accuracy rather than fun, CFS is hopeless.

[Sunny76]

13 hours ago, Coopsy said:

Yup - look at Jan 1987. One of the coldest spells of the 20th century (down to minus 23oC) and snowiest (for the SE up to 70cm in places).

Christmas ‘86 was super mild and within a few weeks that happened. It often seems it’s a precursor to some of the coldest weather. 

Christmas 86 from what I remember was fairly average. The first half of December was the warmest since early December 1979, which probably means December 79 was very mild. 

Christmas 87 was much milder.

Not every mild early winter leads to a colder January/Feb with snow. November and December 94 were very mild, with a couple of cold snaps thrown in, but no long cold periods or snow appeared in early 95.

2006/07 was another example of mild autumn and early winter temps not leading to anything colder.

I agree it has happened in other years like 2009, but there is usually a hint of cold weather on the horizon even during the mildness. If we are still in the 13-15c zone come late November, I'll be writing this off as a mild winter. 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Sunny76

[Froze were the Days]

16 hours ago, Coopsy said:

Yup - look at Jan 1987. One of the coldest spells of the 20th century (down to minus 23oC) and snowiest (for the SE up to 70cm in places).

Christmas ‘86 was super mild and within a few weeks that happened. It often seems it’s a precursor to some of the coldest weather. 

Yep! but you have to look at other factors not what was happening on these shores or parts of Europe, I bet Russia/Siberia was a lot colder back then with a lot more 'bottled' up cold in the Northern Hemisphere...

[SqueakheartLW]

10th winter 2021/2022 update based on the CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 28/10/2021

As per usual we have reached my winter update time again and after my coldies nightmare run last week that returned the mildest update so far, particularly the December 2021 section can this week at least rescue the situation for coldies or is it going to continue a trend of ever milder overall updates.

December 2021

On this particular run for December 2021 the milder than average updates continued but thankfully nothing like as extreme as what last week was. Today's run came in with an overall CET average of 5.26C which is a small +0.29C above the 1991-2020 December mean, a lot less than last week's 8.44C (+3.47C above the 1991-2020 mean). Still a milder than average December 2021 update and continues the general CFS trend to have December 2021 as the most likely month to be mild or least cold.

January 2022

After last week's mildest January 2022 update so far can this week rescue January 2022 back from the bin for fans of colder winter weather. Good news for cold fans is that we have taken a big swing back into colder than average territory for January 2022 on this particular update. The month's mean on this one was 2.08C which is -2.58C below the 1991-2020 January average and is in fact so cold it has been the 2nd coldest January 2022 update so far in all my updates with only update 1 right back in late August having a colder January figure. Wonder if a new middle loaded winter signal is emerging at the moment or is this a one off?

February 2022

February 2022 had in general been a good month to produce colder than average updates but in recent weeks this has generally gone away and modest cold has been the best cold generated. This week is unfortunately a milder than average update for February 2022 with a mean of 5.98C which is +1.09C above the 1991-2020 February mean. This ends the recent run of modest cold outcomes but with a very mild one 3 weeks ago then take a look at what happens to the 3 update mean when we get to this part of the update despite the milder update.

March 2022

March 2022 has been the most reliable to give colder than average updates but last week ended that run with a milder update. This turned out to be a temporary blip as this week has quickly swung back to colder than average again with a CET mean of 4.47C which is -2.27C below the 1991-2020 March mean. This therefore maintains March 2022 as the most likely month to produce a below average CET value next year and continues the hope for cold weather fans for an extended winter season at least.

Overall December 2021 - March 2022 based on CFS 00z 9 monthly run dated 28/10/2021

Overall we came away with a mean on this run of 4.45C which is -0.87C below the 1991-2020 mean for December to March. This thankfully for cold fans ends the getting milder with every update run and pushes us back further in the direction of colder although only a modest value thanks to the milder December and February updates in the latest run. If La Nina starts to bottom out in the next few weeks then CFS may back away from it's strong event and this could introduce more colder runs back into its runs again so increasing the chances I'll get colder 00z updates every Thursday.

3 Updates latest trend

Here are the previous tri update means as well as the most recent at the bottom of the list

Update batch                  December 2021        January 2022        February 2022        March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 1, 2 and 3         4.17C (-0.80C)           3.11C (-1.55C)        2.76C (-2.13C)         4.02C (-2.72C)     3.51C (-1.81C)

Updates 2, 3 and 4         3.45C (-1.52C)           3.26C (-1.40C)        2.99C (-1.90C)         4.67C (-2.07C)     3.59C (-1.73C)

Updates 3, 4 and 5         4.58C (-0.39C)           3.61C (-1.05C)        2.88C (-2.02C)         5.03C (-1.71C)     4.02C (-1.30C)

Updates 4, 5 and 6         4.51C (-0.46C)           3.88C (-0.78C)        2.67C (-2.22C)         5.37C (-1.37C)     4.10C (-1.22C)

Updates 5, 6 and 7         5.70C (+0.73C)          4.84C (+0.18C)       3.51C (-1.38C)         5.16C (-1.58C)     4.80C (-0.52C)

Updates 6, 7 and 8         5.55C (+0.58C)          4.26C (-0.40C)        4.57C (-0.32C)         5.01C (-1.73C)     4.85C (-0.47C)

Updates 7, 8 and 9         6.97C (+2.00C)          4.76C (+0.10C)       5.01C (+0.12C)        6.06C (-0.68C)     5.70C (+0.38C)

Latest                              December 2021       January 2022       February 2022      March 2022        OVERALL

Updates 8, 9 and 10     6.68C (+1.71C)         3.69C (-0.97C)       4.76C (-0.13C)        5.69C (-1.05C)     5.21C (-0.11C)

December 2021 - As noted in several updates December 2021 has generally come out as the mildest or least cold month overall and the 3 update rolling averages generally show it to be the least cold or mildest month but the overall trend has been to shift from colder to milder unfortunately. The latest 3 update mean however has shifted less mild despite another milder than average update. This is thanks to update 10 being less mild than update 7 so bringing the figure down from 6.97C (+2.00C milder) to 6.68C (+1.71C milder) than the 1991-2020 December mean.

January 2022 - A bit more reliable to produce a colder outcome compared with December 2021 but the trend had been getting worse for until the last 2 updates pushed the 3 update mean into colder then back into milder than average territory again although only by a modest negative then positive anomalies though. The very cold update this week has pushed the 3 update mean for January 2022 even back into colder territory from 4.76C (+0.10C milder) to 3.69C (-0.97C colder) than the 1991-2020 January mean. Hope this is the start of a recent trend to get January back into a more definite colder month again.

February 2022 - This had been the most reliable month predicted to be cold but 3 weeks ago the very mild February 2022 update had really put a dent into that colder anomaly and despite the next 2 weeks producing colder February 2022 updates the very mild update 3 weeks ago combined with only modest colder updates since had pushed February 2022 into the milder than average category for the first time overall at +0.12C above the 1991-2020 mean. However despite this week giving another milder update the fact it was a lot less mild this time compared with update 7 means that the overall 3 update mean has in fact pushed back into colder than average territory again from 5.01C (+0.12C milder) last week to the latest 4.76C (-0.13C Colder) than the 1991-2020 February mean. A downwards trend in the CET but a milder update means this change is probably less meaningful than it actually looks.

March 2022 - With producing colder anomalies for every update till 2 weeks ago it has been no surprise that March 2022 has been coming away with the coldest anomaly 3 update rolling mean. Last week ended the colder updates for March 2022 but the 3 update mean stayed in negative territory. The latest update has produced another quite cold March 2022 update so therefore maintains the negative 3 update mean and in fact has got colder again as we dropped from 6.06C (-0.68C Colder) last week to 5.69C (-1.05C Colder) than the 1991-2020 March mean this week. Looks like March remains the most certain month to be colder than average so far.

Overall - Generally has been bad news overall for coldies as the 3 update mean had just kept on getting milder every week up to last week's 3 update rolling mean. The good news finally for coldies this week is we have finally ended the getting milder trend as the overall update this week was colder than average and this combined with some less mild monthly updates compared with their update 7 counterparts has pushed the overall 3 update mean back to colder than average again by only a modest value however as we changed from 5.70C (+0.38C Milder) to 5.21C (-0.11C Colder) than the 1991-2020 December to March mean. A small change but could be a significant momentum changer if cold is what you are after for winter 2021/2022.

[Summer8906]

What are the thoughts about winter given the current Met Office forecast for November?

The current forecast suggests on the cool side but also wet, which brings chilling memories of November 2019 but happier ones of November 1996. That said, there isn't much of an emphasis on frost in the Met Office forecast, which might suggest wet/dull/cool (like Nov 19) rather than wet/sunny/cool (like Nov 96). Any thoughts?

[Summer8906]

6 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Christmas 86 from what I remember was fairly average. The first half of December was the warmest since early December 1979, which probably means December 79 was very mild. 

I think it depends on where you were: in the south I am pretty sure it was mild, though perhaps not spectacularly so (maybe 10C maxima rather than 12-13C maxima).  December 1979 was a mild westerly December from memory, though the very end of the year colder and it was one of the very few years to produce a sunny New Years' Eve (1984 and 2001 perhaps being the only other ones I can remember).

Edited October 28, 2021 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

What are the thoughts about winter given the current Met Office forecast for November?

The current forecast suggests on the cool side but also wet, which brings chilling memories of November 2019 but happier ones of November 1996. That said, there isn't much of an emphasis on frost in the Met Office forecast, which might suggest wet/dull/cool (like Nov 19) rather than wet/sunny/cool (like Nov 96). Any thoughts?

Generally looking unsettled but more of a NW-SE aligned jet which under any clear breaks should deliver frost I hope. Nov 96 was a great example of a predominantly NW type November.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

I think it depends on where you were: in the south I am pretty sure it was mild, though perhaps not spectacularly so (maybe 10C maxima rather than 12-13C maxima).  December 1979 was a mild westerly December from memory, though the very end of the year colder and it was one of the very few years to produce a sunny New Years' Eve (1984 and 2001 perhaps being the only other ones I can remember).

New Year’s Day and early Jan 1980 were very sunny and cold. Perfect winter weather, in an otherwise mild and dull winter during 79/80.

New Years Day 2010 was quite sunny dry and cold. I would like a return to those winters of the late 2000s, even in the south we had snow on the ground for 4 or 5 winters in a row. 
 

February 2009, light snow in December 2009, light snow covering in January 2010, but mostly just cold and dry for the most part. December 2010, heavy snowfall similar to February 2009, which is kind of why the 09 event seems to be forgotten these days. 
 

Winter 2011/12 was the milder one during this era, but snow did fall briefly in February 2012, and finally there was a decent covering of snow yet again in January 2013.

Winter 2013/14 ushered in the milder period of snowless winters, and I had to wait until February 2018 before seeing any snow in London again. 
 

However, that winter made up for it, as snow fell two weeks before Christmas, and the heavy snow fell in late feb into early March. 
 

The next snowfall was earlier this year in January 2021.

So, from my observations above, we should expect a snowfall in the southern regions on average every 3-5 years, despite some milder winters. 
 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

16 hours ago, Catacol said:

Second year Ninas tend to produce a less strong blocking signal. But the dataset is not huge. For now this copy and paste from an article across the pond shows winter anomalies for east based or basin wide weak to moderate Ninas. Good enough for me as a very raw analogue….

Last year was different as it didn’t follow a La Nina signal.  Will this one? 
 

BFTP

[HafrenLMP1]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

New Years Day 2010 was quite sunny dry and cold. I would like a return to those winters of the late 2000s, even in the south we had snow on the ground for 4 or 5 winters in a row. 
 

February 2009, light snow in December 2009, light snow covering in January 2010, but mostly just cold and dry for the most part. December 2010, heavy snowfall similar to February 2009, which is kind of why the 09 event seems to be forgotten these days. 
 

 

 

I actually preferred the 2009/10 winter to the following one. Sunny, dry and cold is my ideal 'winter' weather, with the odd fall of snow. Anything that isn't grey, mild, wet & windy......

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

New Year’s Day and early Jan 1980 were very sunny and cold. Perfect winter weather, in an otherwise mild and dull winter during 79/80.

Remember the cold sunny start to 1980, and have mentioned this in a separate thread in Historical Weather. I then distinctly remember a wet 'breakdown' around the 4th/5th or so, and the second week (7th-11th) being cloudy and dry but can't remember the temps.

The rest of Jan is a complete blank, but apparently the month was colder than normal, and colder than the majority of Januaries since 1988. Something like 5C mean max in London, two degrees below the norm these days though perhaps only 1C below the 1951-80 average.

Also have a distinct memory of a full moon in the early evening on New Years Eve 1979, something which I have proved to be a true memory (you can create historic sky maps at fourmilab.ch/yoursky)

Edited October 28, 2021 by Summer8906

[Sunny76]

12 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Remember the cold sunny start to 1980, and have mentioned this in a separate thread in Historical Weather. I then distinctly remember a wet 'breakdown' around the 4th/5th or so, and the second week (7th-11th) being cloudy and dry but can't remember the temps.

The rest of Jan is a complete blank, but apparently the month was colder than normal, and colder than the majority of Januaries since 1988. Something like 5C mean max in London, two degrees below the norm these days though perhaps only 1C below the 1951-80 average.

Also have a distinct memory of a full moon in the early evening on New Years Eve 1979, something which I have proved to be a true memory (you can create historic sky maps at fourmilab.ch/yoursky)

Yes, from what I hear it was a cold month, but Feb 80 was very mild, with a few daytime temps touching 15c with mild cloudy days. 

[Bullseye]

Some strat rollercoaster from Glosea...

 

 

[damianslaw]

Interesting to read views and comments of winter yesteryear, but such posts are better placed in historic thread. Please use this thread for forecasts and thoughts of upcoming winter. Its easy to stray into comparing predictions with previous winters, so I understand how easy the thread can turn into discussion of previous winters.

[sebastiaan1973]

56 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Some strat rollercoaster from Glosea...

 

 

Thanks for sharing. At least we don't see a strong vortex. 

[Bullseye]

JMA joins the rollercoaster even before winter starts. 

 

[Bullseye]

Bedtime for me but final post or twitter link of tonight. 

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1453835775020240901?t=1KpuoWhfOQUOHf3zcq28Qw&s=19

 

Edited October 28, 2021 by Bullseye