Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Day 10]

On 20/10/2021 at 13:38, Tom Clarke said:

So as others have alluded to the indication is for a very mild winter. The percentile chance of the winter being 'very mild' is the highest that the model data (that they are now using)  has ever shown. Not sure how long this has been used for as I've only been involved in these briefings for 3 years.

Any colder weather is expected early in the season and not to be long lasting.  Obviously this is seen as welcome news for all concerned (though not for winter weather fans!)

The likelihood is also for wetter than average conditions, especially in the North & West, with flood risks for 'normal' associated areas, though rainfall could be average for South East England.  Further afield , the expectation is for an exceptionally dry winter over Iberia & France which would lead to drought conditions going forward in these areas.

 

That's sorted then, I'll be back in March for the Spring outlook.

LRF's are a waste of space, and it's always easier these days to plump for a mild outlook, better chance of being correct.

[Anthony Burden]

Very difficult to predict 3 months in advance,but making a statement such as was stated by a meteorologist 

on prime time tv was as I already stated very unusual. A possible major advance in long range weather forecasting.

We shall of course find out in the next 3 months of winter in the U.K.

[Mapantz]

On 20/10/2021 at 23:08, Anthony Burden said:

Very difficult to predict 3 months in advance,but making a statement such as was stated by a meteorologist 

on prime time tv was as I already stated very unusual. A possible major advance in long range weather forecasting.

We shall of course find out in the next 3 months of winter in the U.K.

I saw that too.

I found it very strange, but then after thinking about it, it's the BBC, so they're not using the Met Office' in-house tools.

And to be fair to the Met Office, they don't actually make long-range forecasts, as such. I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again, a lot of people misinterpret their contingency planners. 

They usually acknowledge the fact that there could be colder spells of weather in between.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

2 hours ago, topo said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-europe-winter-forecast/1032617

Inaccuweather can't even get it right just three days ahead.

Edited October 20, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 20/10/2021 at 23:08, Anthony Burden said:

Very difficult to predict 3 months in advance,but making a statement such as was stated by a meteorologist 

on prime time tv was as I already stated very unusual. A possible major advance in long range weather forecasting.

We shall of course find out in the next 3 months of winter in the U.K.

Almost certainly they've based that on the EC seasonal which shows quite a strong UK/near continent HP signal during December. I think Meteogroup utilise the ECM suite quite heavily in their forecasts.

CFS is cold for December but also not dry-

Edited October 20, 2021 by CreweCold

[syed2878]

4 hours ago, topo said:

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-europe-winter-forecast/1032617

  Well folks get ready for a mild and stormy winter now AccuWeather forecasting a cold jan and February and less wind storms during the winter their forecast over the last few years for Europe has been quite poor especially for Uk and Island if I am not mistaken.  Must admit though some of the post I read on here today from guys who have had briefing for the upcoming winter doesn’t fill me with joy. at least Winter 20 21 hasn’t been too bad it had had its moments I would be some what happy with something like that especially if we don’t get The mild winter they forecasting.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'll be somewhat surprised if December returns an above average CET (by the most recent definition). Quietly confident of a generally cold month.

[LetItSnow!]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'll be somewhat surprised if December returns an above average CET (by the most recent definition). Quietly confident of a generally cold month.

We are seriously overdue a cold one. If December 2021 were to be mild then it would be 11 years since a true cold December. A remarkable run, really.

[Sunny76]

59 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

We are seriously overdue a cold one. If December 2021 were to be mild then it would be 11 years since a true cold December. A remarkable run, really.

December 2020 was quite chilly, not the coldest by any stretch, but definitely the coldest locally since 2017 and coldest overall since 2010. 
 

Last Christmas was perfect winter weather. Temps struggling to reach 3-5c, with a windchill, and some cold sunny days thrown in.

[LetItSnow!]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

December 2020 was quite chilly, not the coldest by any stretch, but definitely the coldest locally since 2017 and coldest overall since 2010. 
 

Last Christmas was perfect winter weather. Temps struggling to reach 3-5c, with a windchill, and some cold sunny days thrown in.

While I agree, December last year felt seasonable even with some mild weather mid-month, statistically it was milder than average, though bang on average for 1991-2020 and even slightly below 1971-2000. I don’t think it was the coldest overall since 2010 though as 2012 and 2017 were colder in the C.E.T. record. The point stands true though that it has been a long time now since a notably cold December. 

Edited October 21, 2021 by LetItSnow!

[Premiere Neige]

8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I saw that too.

I found it very strange, but then after thinking about it, it's the BBC, so they're not using the Met Office' in-house tools.

And to be fair to the Met Office, they don't actually make long-range forecasts, as such. I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again, a lot of people misinterpret their contingency planners. 

They usually acknowledge the fact that there could be colder spells of weather in between.

The amount of times the BBC weather app has been wrong at 24 - 48 hours over the last few months for my location I wouldn't pay much attention to their long range forecast...

[North East Blizzard]

Interesting forecast here, going for below average for the UK. 

 

https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2021/vroege-winterverwachting-koud-en-droog

[mulzy]

The MetOffice forecast is probabilistic.  It doesn't say it *will* be a milder than average winter - it suggests that there is a higher than average chance of it being a milder than average winter.   A cold winter though unlikely is still within the forecast envelope.

[Tom Clarke]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Goes against the Met forecast. Suggests more southerly tracking jetstream and heights over N Europe which would bring cold dry weather to UK with little Atlantic activity. 

Going back to the met forecast mentioned nearly every met contingency forecast I've  ever read has gone mild or very mild.. for so long now it's a foregone conclusion. 

Last year only the Beijing climate model was going for something nearer average at least.

Last year we had La Nina, and ended up near average and a bit colder in the north especially. It is just one factor. SSW's are an unknown and we are in chaotic times weatherwise and I would urge people to take any forecast with a massive room for high margins of error.

Not sure about the very mild being frequent in the planners updates - but it is this time. From my limited understanding of the charts there must be a strong signal for the Euro high pressure and persistent SW winds.

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Tom Clarke said:

Not sure about the very mild being frequent in the planners updates - but it is this time. From my limited understanding of the charts there must be a strong signal for the Euro high pressure and persistent SW winds.

The default yearly pressure pattern..  always the safest bet...

[SqueakheartLW]

Christmas 2021 Update Number 3

Christmas update number 3 is now upon us as I have collected another weeks worth of 2m temperature data from the CFS 9 monthly runs so here we go. Time to present the data I have gathered so far in the image below

As we can see here just like with weeks 1 and 2 we have a whole range of outcomes from cold through to mild again. The main thing to take away from this week 3 is how we haven't set any new overall max or min values although the coldest min and mildest max values did get matched during the last week

Week 1 came out like this

              Average Min     Average Max     Average Mean

Temp          3.61                      5.79                    4.70

Anom        +1.52                     -1.24                  +0.14

Week 2 came out like this

                Average Min       Average Max      Average Mean

Temp          4.21                       5.96                     5.09

Anom        +2.12                     -1.07                    +0.53

Week 3 summary

How does week 3 compare with weeks 1 and 2 and  will we be milder or colder than last week or maybe even milder or colder than both week 1 and 2. Included is the change from week 2 as well

                    Average Min                Average Max            Average Mean

Temp          2.71 (down -1.50)       5.43 (down -0.53)     4.07 (down -1.02)

Anom        +0.62                              -1.60                          -0.49

When we averaged out all of the max, min and mean data for week 1 it wasn't a great start for cold fans with the overall +0.14C milder anomaly. The coldies misery continued in week 2 when we shifted more into the direction of a milder Christmas overall and stood at a weekly average of 5.09C which was +0.53C above the 1991-2020 25th December mean. Week 3 is good news for coldies finally as we came back with an overall Christmas Day mean of 4.07C which is -0.49C below the 1991-2020 25th December mean. This was largely thanks to a big overall reduction in the minimum values this last week (down -1.50C) compared with week 2 although the daytime maxes did drop a bit too overall. Hope this is the start of a trend by the CFS rather than a one off cold update.

[Yarmy]

12 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Interesting reading

Didn't old Joe Laminate Floor used to write these? He always used to go for crazy cold. Those were more entertaining. And wrong, alas.

[sebastiaan1973]

5 hours ago, North East Blizzard said:

Interesting forecast here, going for below average for the UK. 

 

https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2021/vroege-winterverwachting-koud-en-droog

Good to mention, that the information source is from World Climate Service. 

[Yarmy]

5 hours ago, North East Blizzard said:

Interesting forecast here, going for below average for the UK. 

 

https://www.weer.nl/nieuws/2021/vroege-winterverwachting-koud-en-droog

"The best year of comparison for the run-up to winter is (don't be alarmed) 1962, when almost all factors that played a role in the weather were the same as they are now. The comparison year that follows is 2010." 

[sukayuonsensnow]

My gut is telling me we are in for a cold winter, or at the very least a notable cold spell.

A mild and wet winter (certainly the latter) would really not be great for southern UK after the wet summer and fairly wet autumn. Rain seems to get heavier here also, 1-2in of rain in a rain event is becoming more common this year, certainly in my local area.

Southern England have had a fairly wet summer and autumn (so far), and are overdue a longer dry period at some point. Weather tends to balance out after a while so after the heavy rains we should have a drier spell for a while at some point. High pressure would take charge for a time, it is just a question of where it would be, when and subsequent wind direction.

Otherwise, much of the weather this year reminds me of 2009 weather. Some colder interludes in January, an easterly earlier in February (the snow was much heavier and more widespread that year), and then a wet summer (more so in the south this year). A wet autumn as well with flooding in places. Coincidentally also a drier middle part of October. Of course it isn't exactly the same. Northern UK had an alright summer with more dry and warm weather.

If there's further flooding risk in November (more rain, wind and milder than average temperatures) followed by a cold December (drier, frost, fog, and snow?) then would be interesting with the 2009 comparison.

[damianslaw]

54 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

My gut is telling me we are in for a cold winter, or at the very least a notable cold spell.

A mild and wet winter (certainly the latter) would really not be great for southern UK after the wet summer and fairly wet autumn. Rain seems to get heavier here also, 1-2in of rain in a rain event is becoming more common this year, certainly in my local area.

Southern England have had a fairly wet summer and autumn (so far), and are overdue a longer dry period at some point. Weather tends to balance out after a while so after the heavy rains we should have a drier spell for a while at some point. High pressure would take charge for a time, it is just a question of where it would be, when and subsequent wind direction.

Otherwise, much of the weather this year reminds me of 2009 weather. Some colder interludes in January, an easterly earlier in February (the snow was much heavier and more widespread that year), and then a wet summer (more so in the south this year). A wet autumn as well with flooding in places. Coincidentally also a drier middle part of October. Of course it isn't exactly the same. Northern UK had an alright summer with more dry and warm weather.

If there's further flooding risk in November (more rain, wind and milder than average temperatures) followed by a cold December (drier, frost, fog, and snow?) then would be interesting with the 2009 comparison.

Please no November 2009! Extensive flooding! We had a strong El Nino that year.. not the same base state.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Please no November 2009! Extensive flooding! We had a strong El Nino that year.. not the same base state.

Yep and a Modoki El Nino, too, which increases the chances of colder winters in north west Europe.  This year we look to have a Modoki La Nina, so very different to 2009.

[cheeky_monkey]

18 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Almost certainly they've based that on the EC seasonal which shows quite a strong UK/near continent HP signal during December. I think Meteogroup utilise the ECM suite quite heavily in their forecasts.

CFS is cold for December but also not dry-

that Dec chart is as cold and snowy as it gets for my location 

[sukayuonsensnow]

29 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Please no November 2009! Extensive flooding! We had a strong El Nino that year.. not the same base state.

I don't want a November 2009 repeat either! It's been so wet in central southern England lately, I think the last thing anyone wants is (more) major flooding issues.

I was acknowledging the similarities between the two years and similar weather events at similar times of the year. I also wonder how the recent weather in northern Scandinavia will influence as well, unusually wintry even for that part of the world this soon in the season. Probably too soon to tell, and depends on the exact track/orientation of the jet stream and low pressures moving through.

[Catacol]

It’s interesting to muse, and we have some of the building blocks taking shape with some certainty (QBO, ENSO, SST precursors) but it is still too early. We need another 4 weeks before the mists will clear a little, and therefore all forecasts or probabilistic guesses are not worth being concerned about - whether cold or mild in nature. The only thing we can say with certainty is that eQBO statistically provides some pro cold outbreak bias, and that avoiding an extreme ENSO signal means raging zonality also drops in likelihood. These are obviously good foundations for coldies.

On a personal level I note a reasonably cyclonic profile in the North Pacific at present but also a tendency for cyclonic conditions over Scandy to take hold as we move through the rest of this month. One good signal, one less good I think. But blocking in the right place requires the right jet profile and the transference of energy from tropics to extra tropics to produce conditions conducive to warm blasts into the vortex or at least eddies in the flow that encourage a reversal in the flow….and this is sooooo difficult to see at medium/long range. We need to get a feel for conditions over east Asia and any tendency for spiking torque and pacific jet extension (last winter saw a helpfully active pacific jet) and alongside that the MJO passage, broadly predictable in position but very unpredictable in amplitude.

And so…..we must sit tight a while longer before getting a feel beyond the foundation basics at the top of this post. For my own part - MJO position and amplitude, North Pacific ensemble 500hpa forecast alongside SSTs, blocking (or not) over Eastern Europe and ENSO strength are my areas of focus as the next 4 weeks unfolds. 

 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Catacol