Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Premiere Neige]

20 hours ago, snowy weather said:

According to a private Met Office briefing given to the Government (subsequently shared with energy bosses), we are on track for a very, very mild winter.  

To go with the very, very barbecue summer they forecast back in....well I forget when it was but...

Anyway, I believe it was after that farce that the met office stopped issuing long range forecasts for public consumption. Too much egg on their face already. 

[Froze were the Days]

21 hours ago, snowy weather said:

According to a private Met Office briefing given to the Government (subsequently shared with energy bosses), we are on track for a very, very mild winter.  

Well if we continue the mild theme of CET's this Autumn (this month looks probable near +1.5c - +2c on the 61-90 series but a bit early to guess but the foreseeable looks more milder days than cold) and IF November too is mild I doubt we'll see a 'very mild winter' as the MetO suggests...CET anomalies for each month very rarely are continuously warm, your bound to see a month thereafter (or even two) closer to the norm but we could see the winter skewed by a very mild month.

I know this is layman's stuff but it can hold you in good stead at predicting...I could see a milder month around the corner after August as the year to then had been remarkably non-descript in terms of warm months. 

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Don]

On 16/10/2021 at 14:05, snowy weather said:

According to a private Met Office briefing given to the Government (subsequently shared with energy bosses), we are on track for a very, very mild winter.  

Is this a wind up? 

[snowy weather]

42 minutes ago, Don said:

Is this a wind up? 

Read newspapers. 

[snowy weather]

On 16/10/2021 at 14:49, Frostbite1980 said:

Strange i work for local authority in emergency planning and we have a meeting on Wednesday next week regarding what they expect the winter to be like so will wait to hear it for myself

Just reporting what I read in the news. 

[KTtom]

54 minutes ago, Don said:

Is this a wind up? 

It has been reported in the press, having said that so was the snow which was forecast by the end of the month!

The worst thing about a 'very, very mild winter' is that its likely to be very, very wet! 

[snowy weather]

4 minutes ago, KTtom said:

It has been reported in the press, having said that so was the snow which was forecast by the end of the month!

The worst thing about a 'very, very mild winter' is that its likely to be very, very wet! 

I guess it also depends on which newspapers lol. 

[Don]

36 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

Read newspapers. 

Thank you for that lovely polite reply

[Don]

23 minutes ago, KTtom said:

It has been reported in the press, having said that so was the snow which was forecast by the end of the month!

The worst thing about a 'very, very mild winter' is that its likely to be very, very wet! 

I’m not a fan of the press currently, so I will say no more! However, I agree if it’s a very mid winter, it will likely be very wet!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

If the papers are forecasting a very, very, very, very, very, very cold winter, then don't be too surprised if we end up having a very, very, very, very, very, very mild south westerly one. Whatever the papers forecast, the opposite very, very, very, very, very, very often happens.

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Is this a wind up? 

Probably a reference to this - though not sure where the "very, very" came from

Business Secretary shares ‘mild’ winter briefing with energy suppliers – report

WWW.STANDARD.CO.UK

---

The Met Office is said to have advised the whole area of long-range forecasting is “pretty experimental”

And in any case all that this broad 3 month reference forecast relates to is the most common pattern in a Nina whereby early season we see a mid atlantic ridge and then as the winter progresses wavelength changes put that ridge over Europe. And couched with "could" and "most likely scenario...." But the weather is no longer dancing to a traditional tune, and a 3 month smoothed average is no use to anyone. And what if Nina ends up above -1? And what if we get another SSW? I wouldn't give it a second's thought. Forecasting winter in the middle of October is nigh on impossible. Middle of November - maybe a small chance of some approximate phase identification.....

Edited October 17, 2021 by Catacol

[Froze were the Days]

I bet the MetO forecast a mild Spring this year...it does seem like now days they do 9 times out of 10 plump for milder than average seasons.

[Polar Maritime]

On 17/10/2021 at 16:14, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

If the papers are forecasting a very, very, very, very, very, very cold winter, then don't be too surprised if we end up having a very, very, very, very, very, very mild south westerly one. Whatever the papers forecast, the opposite very, very, very, very, very, very often happens.

The papers 'Headline' a cold Winter every year... 

Edited October 17, 2021 by Polar Maritime

[MattStoke]

Bound to be reliable and true if it’s in the newspapers

[Frost HoIIow]

13 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Bound to be reliable and true if it’s in the newspapers

Aye. Nathan Rao seems to love publishing a good shocker of a headline in the Express.

Edited October 17, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[Wold Topper]

On 17/10/2021 at 20:08, Frost HoIIow said:

Aye. Nathan Rao seems to love publishing a good shocker of a headline in the Express.

The Express

[Bradley in Kent]

Expert forecaster John Smith announced yesterday on his Facebook profile 'there's a bush next to the retail park roundabout which has loads of berries on it this year. Therefore the North Sea will probably freeze over this winter'

[Mike Poole]

3 hours ago, Catacol said:

Probably a reference to this - though not sure where the "very, very" came from

Business Secretary shares ‘mild’ winter briefing with energy suppliers – report

WWW.STANDARD.CO.UK

---

The Met Office is said to have advised the whole area of long-range forecasting is “pretty experimental”

And in any case all that this broad 3 month reference forecast relates to is the most common pattern in a Nina whereby early season we see a mid atlantic ridge and then as the winter progresses wavelength changes put that ridge over Europe. And couched with "could" and "most likely scenario...." But the weather is no longer dancing to a traditional tune, and a 3 month smoothed average is no use to anyone. And what if Nina ends up above -1? And what if we get another SSW? I wouldn't give it a second's thought. Forecasting winter in the middle of October is nigh on impossible. Middle of November - maybe a small chance of some approximate phase identification.....

Yes, article in the Times the other day suggested even UKMO are going for a cold one early doors, see my post earlier.  My thoughts are actually that late winter is more certain than early winter, I think late winter will be mild and Atlantic driven, but that early winter might be cold, but with more uncertainty.  Time to quit or lump on?  I’m lumping on…

I should add I don’t give a flying £££k what Kwasi Kwarteng thinks about it.  

Edited October 17, 2021 by Mike Poole

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Catacol said:

Probably a reference to this - though not sure where the "very, very" came from

Business Secretary shares ‘mild’ winter briefing with energy suppliers – report

WWW.STANDARD.CO.UK

---

The Met Office is said to have advised the whole area of long-range forecasting is “pretty experimental”

And in any case all that this broad 3 month reference forecast relates to is the most common pattern in a Nina whereby early season we see a mid atlantic ridge and then as the winter progresses wavelength changes put that ridge over Europe. And couched with "could" and "most likely scenario...." But the weather is no longer dancing to a traditional tune, and a 3 month smoothed average is no use to anyone. And what if Nina ends up above -1? And what if we get another SSW? I wouldn't give it a second's thought. Forecasting winter in the middle of October is nigh on impossible. Middle of November - maybe a small chance of some approximate phase identification.....

Credence in any 'forecasting' or 'modelling' has to be taken with huge margin for error.. just like any forecast. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Aye. Nathan Rao seems to love publishing a good shocker of a headline in the Express.

Where's the laugh reaction when you need it? 

Edited October 17, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Aye. Nathan Rao seems to love publishing a good shocker of a headline in the Express.

None of these are for this year, I should warn.  

But an early cold spell is quite likely in my opinion.  So expect the Express to get wind of it soon….

[Beanz]

6 hours ago, Catacol said:

Probably a reference to this - though not sure where the "very, very" came from

Business Secretary shares ‘mild’ winter briefing with energy suppliers – report

WWW.STANDARD.CO.UK

---

The Met Office is said to have advised the whole area of long-range forecasting is “pretty experimental”

And in any case all that this broad 3 month reference forecast relates to is the most common pattern in a Nina whereby early season we see a mid atlantic ridge and then as the winter progresses wavelength changes put that ridge over Europe. And couched with "could" and "most likely scenario...." But the weather is no longer dancing to a traditional tune, and a 3 month smoothed average is no use to anyone. And what if Nina ends up above -1? And what if we get another SSW? I wouldn't give it a second's thought. Forecasting winter in the middle of October is nigh on impossible. Middle of November - maybe a small chance of some approximate phase identification.....

Politically twisted BS basically, i agree with you that it’s not worth a seconds thought.  I’d go as far as saying it’s not even about the weather! 

[Simon M]

5 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Aye. Nathan Rao seems to love publishing a good shocker of a headline in the Express.

 

To be fair to the Express (lol), the top front page (Worst Freeze for 20 Years) dated January 2013 wasn't completely off the mark, since that late winter and early spring were very cold.  That was probably an example of a stopped clock being right once a day though.

[Tom Clarke]

On 16/10/2021 at 14:49, Frostbite1980 said:

Strange i work for local authority in emergency planning and we have a meeting on Wednesday next week regarding what they expect the winter to be like so will wait to hear it for myself

We've also got a briefing on Wednesday so will be interesting to see what is said - last year the guidance was broadly accurate as to how things played out.

[Methuselah]

8 hours ago, Beanz said:

Politically twisted BS basically, i agree with you that it’s not worth a seconds thought.  I’d go as far as saying it’s not even about the weather! 

 

12 hours ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Expert forecaster John Smith announced yesterday on his Facebook profile 'there's a bush next to the retail park roundabout which has loads of berries on it this year. Therefore the North Sea will probably freeze over this winter'

John Smith!

8 hours ago, Beanz said:

Politically twisted BS basically, i agree with you that it’s not worth a seconds thought.  I’d go as far as saying it’s not even about the weather! 

Really, @Beanz? From a tory-supporting tabloid toilet-roll?! I think it's just the usual idiocy from Nathan Rao!