Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[damianslaw]

13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I think it's fair to say the first generation of climate change was global warming and did concentrate its focus on unlimited warming. I can recall predictions such as palm trees would grow naturally in the coastal northeastern U.S., many ski resorts would have to close down due to a lack of snow, and right here on Net-weather around 2006 or so, unqualified predictions that we would never see a CET month below 3.0 ever again. 

The second generation has become more attuned to variability and routinely explains colder than average weather as displaced polar vortex situations created by warm air invading the natural home of the polar vortex, the high latitudes. This may be closer to the truth although it does not take an entirely skeptical nature to ask, then what displaced them in years like 1895 and 1899 when similar cold hit in places like Texas where the explanation was meant to apply? 

I think there's some truth to the updated version of climate change, as well as some weaknesses. But there's no denying the fact that in high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, temperatures are warming more rapidly than other parts of the globe, on the average. It doesn't prevent the odd excursion into below-normal temperatures however. One recent summer in Resolute, located in the central arctic islands at about 75N lat, was about 4 deg colder than average and about 8 deg colder than some recent very mild summers up there. Ice was quick to leave the Northwest Passage in 2012 and it lured sailors into trying their luck with it in 2013, unfortunately for them the ice stayed in place and they could not get through. This variability has continued since those two years. 

What does it tell us about this coming winter? Nothing, unfortunately. All we know from this sort of study is that the full range of variability is still on the table, but the frequency has changed. The gap between very cold winters has been rather long ever since the epic winter of 1962-63, with intervals of ten to twenty years more or less devoid of any deep cold. It could be argued that the only really cold winters since 1963 have been in 1979 and the 1980s (several), and 2009-10, 2010-11. Others have been near misses or intervals too short, although late Jan into Feb 1991 was close enough to qualify for most. 

We are now at a point where we are starting to reach the recent standard of length of intervals without a classic cold winter or enough of a portion of winter severely cold to get our attention (like 2010-11). But it was 19 years from 1991 to 2010 with only a few minor excursions into deep cold. Will the reduced solar activity perhaps  prevent such a long wait? Or are the odds just reducing so steadily that such minor help will be worthless? 

I don't have a forecast ready yet, but my preliminary thoughts are more towards severe cold developing in eastern North America which is often not a good indicator for western Europe unless that severe cold is late (February cold has done better at hitting on both sides of the Atlantic than January cold which seems to require a longer wave length that means one but not the other, more often than not). There are exceptions. January 1963 was quite cold in eastern North America. 

The one factor that looks good for Britain to turn cold is that there have been some blocking episodes over Russia this autumn, a trend which could intensify. I expect the forecast to include a few windows of opportunity but not any sustained deep cold (for Britain).

I'll take a few opportunities.. better than nothing. Preferably scattered throughout the winter.. and lasting a few days rather than one or two. I enjoyed last winter for this reason.. cold to start, cold from Christmas to mid Jan and then cold again early Feb. 2008-2009 was also very similar..  I don't like having to wait until late Jan for the first cold spell.. equivalent of waiting until late July before first hot spell..

Good to observe strength of blocking episodes west russia and scandi region rest of the autumn.. the more robust the better the chance if deep cold pool developing enabling to fend off what is traditionally a rampant Atlantic by the time we start December.. doesn't always equate to cold conditions here.. if the block orientated SE into east/se Europe we end up with milder southerly flow and trough stuck to the west.. conversely blocking that digs into scandi tends to lead to a more amplified flow and negative aligned trough allowing for easterlies and undercuts with low heights forced underneath and then either cold cyclonic or very cold NE episodes...

[Canalboy]

15 hours ago, yamkin said:

I should have used better wording. In the year 2000, we were told, Snowfalls would be the thing of the past

Yamkin you are perfectly correct.  Dr. David Viner of the Climatic Research Unit said in 2000, and I quote : “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”    Similarly, David Parker, at the UK’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research predicted exacly the same thing, averring unequivocally that "virtual snow" would soon be the only way British children could experience this meteorological phenomenon.

I could throw in a whole host of other pseudo Cassandrine statements ranging from erstwhile Education Secretaries to the Sindie newspaper, but this old line has become as tired as the earnest doom mongers from the seventies who told us that Europe would be under ice sheets in fifty years time.  I clearly remember watching a World About Us programme on BBC2 in 1976 wh9ich averred this as a certainty.

I think the big problem is that a lot of people think they live on the cusp of some great catastrophe which, of course, never quite seems to happen, viz. Scared To Death by Christopher Booker.

[Methuselah]

The closest I've ever come to seeing any of those actual quotes (from the alleged writer) was yesterday, when someone posted some real words that were fundamentally different from those being claimed. I think Anthony Watts has a lot of quite serious questions to answer. Climategate anyone?!

[Dorsetbred]

On 10/10/2021 at 12:09, Canalboy said:

Yamkin you are perfectly correct.  Dr. David Viner of the Climatic Research Unit said in 2000, and I quote : “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”    Similarly, David Parker, at the UK’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research predicted exacly the same thing, averring unequivocally that "virtual snow" would soon be the only way British children could experience this meteorological phenomenon.

I could throw in a whole host of other pseudo Cassandrine statements ranging from erstwhile Education Secretaries to the Sindie newspaper, but this old line has become as tired as the earnest doom mongers from the seventies who told us that Europe would be under ice sheets in fifty years time.  I clearly remember watching a World About Us programme on BBC2 in 1976 wh9ich averred this as a certainty.

I think the big problem is that a lot of people think they live on the cusp of some great catastrophe which, of course, never quite seems to happen, viz. Scared To Death by Christopher Booker.

Hi, whilst I understand your comments, bear in mind it is a variance that cannot be forecasted. For example, I remember many snowy winters down here on the UK south coast, but now they are very few and far between, in fact last winter pulled a bid zero for anything that even suggested snowfall down here. Times have changed, and children in the UK will even now be able to say they haven't see a layer of snow, whilst many years ago a layer of snow did happen, on a fairly regular winter basis.

Edited October 10, 2021 by Dorsetbred

[Puddy Galore]

Apologies, probably not the right thread but I didn’t know which subject to put under in the climate change thread.  Can anyone enlighten me?  I am confused.  From what I have read it is thought climate change in the UK will lead to hotter, drier long summers and milder wetter winters.  I then read reports that some scientists believe the gulf stream is slowing down and if this does happen it may well will bring about an overall reduction in temperatures for the UK.  How could it be both?      

[Frost HoIIow]

10 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

Apologies, probably not the right thread but I didn’t know which subject to put under in the climate change thread.  Can anyone enlighten me?  I am confused.  From what I have read it is thought climate change in the UK will lead to hotter, drier long summers and milder wetter winters.  I then read reports that some scientists believe the gulf stream is slowing down and if this does happen it may well will bring about an overall reduction in temperatures for the UK.  How could it be both?      

The thing is climate science isn't nailed on and we don't know for sure the implications of climate change on our small part of the world will be. In terms of the gulf stream it does seem to be slowing down but it's not at the point of total collapse, no where near in fact. If that did happen though then we'd see about a 10C reduction in average winter temperatures here. So for example the average winter high temp in Manchester right now in January is around 7.4C. In the event of total collapse of the gulf stream it would be around -2.6C. So we'd have winters like Minsk in Belarus with most days not getting above 0C. 

[knocker]

 Stories of the Gulf Stream collapsing or drastically slowing dowm, thus impacting the climate of western Europe, are basically urban legend. Apart from anything else the earths spin would have to change.

http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/

[Day 10]

Make your own mind up.

The Gulf Stream is nearing a Critical point of Collapse, new data shows, with the Weakening Ocean Current impacting the Global Weather

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

United States and Europe are strongly influenced by Gulf Stream, which is approaching a collapse, based on the latest data and new studies

 

[snowsummer]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

 Stories of the Gulf Stream collapsing or drastically slowing dowm, thus impacting the climate of western Europe, are basically urban legend. Apart from anything else the earths spin would have to change.

http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/

Thanks for that Knocker. Made very interesting reading. Now left to wonder just how much else id learnt will now have to be 'unlearnt'

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 10/10/2021 at 19:13, Day 10 said:

Make your own mind up.

The Gulf Stream is nearing a Critical point of Collapse, new data shows, with the Weakening Ocean Current impacting the Global Weather

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

United States and Europe are strongly influenced by Gulf Stream, which is approaching a collapse, based on the latest data and new studies

 

Would love to see a few UK winters with the Gulf stream shut down. Might actually get some proper cold and snow for once!

[Mapantz]

On 10/10/2021 at 19:13, Day 10 said:

Make your own mind up.

The Gulf Stream is nearing a Critical point of Collapse, new data shows, with the Weakening Ocean Current impacting the Global Weather

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

United States and Europe are strongly influenced by Gulf Stream, which is approaching a collapse, based on the latest data and new studies

 

The post above this made my own mind up.

'Critical point of collapse' is alarmist clap-trap.

[weirpig]

22 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

The post above this made my own mind up.

'Critical point of collapse' is alarmist clap-trap.

Really. Many studies show this. In fact one was published only a few weeks back  highlighting the fact that the gulf stream is on the verge. Alarmist maybe in regard to the weather it will cause. But the study is perfectly scientificly sound 

[Mapantz]

On 10/10/2021 at 21:26, weirpig said:

Really. Many studies show this. In fact one was published only a few weeks back  highlighting the fact that the gulf stream is on the verge. Alarmist maybe in regard to the weather it will cause. But the study is perfectly scientificly sound 

Take a look at the link that knocker posted.

[Frost HoIIow]

By the jist of this they aren't ruling anything out completely but at the same time say any collapse won't happen in anyone's lifetimes that are living now. And we've had a 10% reduction in the flow in the last 15 years. Whose to say this reduction won't continue? 

Could the Gulf Stream Collapse? | TVO.org

WWW.TVO.ORG

---

How might this possible catastophe affect Canada?

 

Edited October 10, 2021 by Frost HoIIow

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Take a look at the link that knocker posted.

I have your point?  Facts are the gulf stream is at its weakest for close to 2000 years. High rates of co2 have a detrimental effect on the gulf stream  and with places such as the Amazon emitting more co2 than it absorbes the major consensus is that a collapse of the gulf stream is imminent. That is undeniable.  When is up for debate  but it could be from the next decade to 100 years. But with climate change steaming ahead sooner rather than later is the consensus of many 

Edited October 10, 2021 by weirpig

[Mapantz]

On 10/10/2021 at 21:40, weirpig said:

the major consensus is that a collapse of the gulf stream is imminent. That is undeniable.

Sorry, but that is untrue.

A note to everyone in here:  this isn't really the thread for this discussion. We do have a  sub-forum dedicated to those subjects, which is best suited in there.

[Methuselah]

So long as the Earth keeps spinning (though it is of course slowing down) seawater will continue to circulate the North Atlantic Ocean, with a clockwise motion?

Edited October 10, 2021 by Ed Stone

[weirpig]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Sorry, but that is untrue.

A note to everyone in here:  this isn't really the thread for this discussion. We do have a  sub-forum dedicated to those subjects, which is best suited in there.

It isn't.  imminent within 100 years is the broad consensus  and in the scheme of things 100 years is imminent.  Anyway I agree this is not the thread. No more will be said 

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, snowsummer said:

Thanks for that Knocker. Made very interesting reading. Now left to wonder just how much else id learnt will now have to be 'unlearnt'

Modeling what would happen to the UK if the Gulf Stream shuts down | Ars Technica

 

 

[weathergeek]

On 09/10/2021 at 21:34, Don said:

I was referring to what happens regardless whether it's a mild or cold winter, the media will still promote doom and gloom!  I.e. if a mild winter saves us from gas shortages, there will be something else!  This is why I don't bother with the news now!

Yes doom & gloom and scaremongering seem to have taken over from the old fashioned ways of journalism in years past!!

Either way the weather will be "wrong"

[Roger J Smith]

While I agree the discussion belongs in the climate change area, just in the interests of a complete end to it, I would add this caveat -- just because the Gulf stream weakens is no guarantee of any large scale change in climate in western Europe. In similar latitudes of North America we do not have the same patterns of ocean currents and winter sea surface temperatures are generally several degrees colder at similar latitudes, but coastal temperatures are about the same because the jet stream crosses the Pacific at similar latitudes to the Atlantic. The dynamics of the weather patterns are similar in coastal areas and so the climates are similar even though off the coast the waters are quite a bit cooler. Any distance inland, of course, things change because the larger continent with mountains near the coast allow for greater spread and duration of arctic air masses. Where I live would be about the equivalent of the very highest elevations in the Ardennes in terms of distance inland and latitude, but we routinely have four to six months of snow cover and average January temperatures near -8 C, in the Ardennes I would imagine it is closer to intermittent snow cover and -4 C. The difference is mainly due to air mass frequency, the actual air masses we get are similar, but we are in arctic air for longer periods of time on the average.

But the climate on the coast at 49N is very similar to Brittany, and the climate at 53N is very similar to Galway. 

[Methuselah]

I believe that research into the behaviour of the GS-NAD is a valuable endeavour and that each finding deserves the same respect/scrutiny as any other? That said, there have (over the past 50 years or so) been a plethora of contradictory reports:

Who recalls the excitement generated during the 1970s, when the fear was that the Gulf Stream was about to change course and head for Iberia, plunging Europe into a new Little Ice Age? Where did that go!

But that's what I love most about science: if a result of a test is 'correct', we've added something positive to our knowledge bank. And, even when 'wrong', negative findings should nudge future researchers in the 'right' direction?

IMO, it's when the Press get involved that the problems arise!

Edited October 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Day 10]

On 10/10/2021 at 21:01, Mapantz said:

The post above this made my own mind up.

'Critical point of collapse' is alarmist clap-trap.

Isn't that the point though, headlines are written in a way to gain attention otherwise people wouldn't read them in the first place. The rest is for the person reading it to decide what to believe or not.

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Isn't that the point though, headlines are written in a way to gain attention otherwise people wouldn't read them in the first place. The rest is for the person reading it to decide what to believe or not.

It's just a shame that (in too many cases) neither the headline writers themselves nor their respective readerships have the faintest idea of what anything means?

And that, IMO, is ultimately down to an inadequate education system!

Edited October 11, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Day 10]

On 11/10/2021 at 12:36, Ed Stone said:

It's just a shame that (in too many cases) neither the headline writers themselves nor their respective readerships have the faintest idea of what anything means?

And that, IMO, is ultimately down to an inadequate education system!

In general I agree with you, however the article is by Andrej Flis (Recretos), pretty sure he's posted in the start thread in the past if it's the same guy.

@weirpig I agree with you.

Anyway apologies the thread has gone a wry, I'll move on.

Let's hope we all get snow for Christmas!