Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[SqueakheartLW]

On 08/10/2021 at 19:54, Mike Poole said:

I think that this year is the best chance since 2010 of a really cold spell, probably in the early to mid part of winter.  So many factors at play but one that is particularly well aligned is solar activity - this screenshot from spaceweather.com:

We are coming off the back of a solar minimum, as we were 11 years ago in 2010 (my markings).  

We have east QBO.  

We have, I think a residual NH impact from last year’s largely blocked (but ultimately slightly disappointing winter, particularly further south in the UK), it has been there all summer.   Remember that Dec 2010 came on the back of a half decent winter in 2009/10.  And others have commented as well as me on the similarities to 2010 as we have approached autumn.  

Strat vortex, all signs are it will be very hampered in getting going, an early SSW not out of the question, but whether that happens or not, there is a reasonable chance this year, that it doesn’t get going and couple with the trop in a vortex intensification event until January in my view.  So many years we say this but they couple in mid December and write off the heart of winter, so this bit is crucial, so even though the early part of winter may be trop led, an eye on the strat will be vital.  

Anyway, bring it on

Edit I should add, that I’m not aware of any big negative factors that can totally override the ones I’ve talked about this year.  Still got nightmares about the Indian Ocean Dipole event that scuppered any chance of cold in 2019/20, despite other favourable indicators .  

As you said there are similarities to 2010 but there are also some differences that could put us in an even better position than 2010

Similarities as mentioned

• Solar activity - 2nd year solar cycle with similar number of spotless days to 2010 but currently set for a higher spotless rate than in 2010 which to me is a slightly better signal for cold
• A blocked winter the year before - Although 2009/10 was better in terms of getting colder and snowier conditions than 2020/21 was we were really just unlucky last winter in how the blocks lined up compared with 2009/10
• ENSO - We have a La Nina again like we developed in 2010.

Differences

• ENSO - I have listed ENSO in similarities for the fact we have a La Nina again. The main difference here and something which is more in our favour for cold compared with 2010 is that it is a weak one unlike the strong La Nina we developed in 2010 which I think was one of the main factors that undid the winter after December 2010.
• Stratospheric Polar Vortex - We saw a couple of dips of the zonal wind speeds at 10hpa during the Autumn of 2010 and if the latest forecasts play out this looks like been the case again. However the main thing with the vortex that winter was how it was generally stronger than average really throughout with no SSW.
• Northern Pacific - The northern Pacific has in general gone through a warm phase which is unlike what generally happened between 2008 and 2013 when it was generally colder. Hopefully the recent cooldown continues and we end up with a cold N Pacific by the time winter arrives to make it similar to 2010.
• QBO - The QBO from around the middle of 2010 went westerly and by the time the winter arrived we were in a strong WQBO. This time it looks like we are going to be the exact opposite. A big difference to 2010. Could this go in our favour for 2021/22?

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

 

• A blocked winter the year before - Although 2009/10 was better in terms of getting colder and snowier conditions than 2020/21 was we were really just unlucky last winter in how the blocks lined up compared with 2009/10

This is the big one for me…if you are a summer model watcher you could see this right across the summer that last winter was having a lasting effect.  The most important signal of the lot to determine whether this upcoming winter is going to deliver (for me anyway).  

Edited October 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

Would want to keep an eye on Nina ..

We might be looking at moderate as opposed to weak.

Agree with others that the signs seem reasonable.

Fingers crossed,SSW would be perfect early Dec please weather God's..

[Mapantz]

I think I have read the line "best chance since 2010" pretty much every year, on here. It was even stated in a thread back in September/October 2013..

I think people are setting themselves up for a big fall by clinging on to that notion.

[Mike Poole]

9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I think I have read the line "best chance since 2010" pretty much every year, on here. It was even stated in a thread back in September/October 2013..

I think people are setting themselves up for a big fall by clinging on to that notion.

We will see, @Mapantz, you could well be right, but even if it is the best chance since 2010, doesn’t mean it will come off does it?  No.  Definitely best thought about probabilistically - so I’ll start the bidding, 65% chance of the coldest winter since 2010/11.  Buy or sell at that price???

Edited October 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[virtualsphere]

Looking at Octobers preceding some colder and warmer winters, using some recent examples both seem to feature blocking over the UK and low heights north of Scandinavia - one key difference seems to be the area around western Canada, south Alaska, north Pacific region, with significant blocking in years preceding warmer UK winters and a trough here in years preceding cold UK winters:

If the current modelling pans out, plenty of low pressure forecast in this region during the coming month:

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Would want to keep an eye on Nina ..

We might be looking at moderate as opposed to weak.

Agree with others that the signs seem reasonable.

Fingers crossed,SSW would be perfect early Dec please weather God's..

Yes, Nina does need an eye kept on.  However, I think it's likely that whatever happens it will still be a weaker event than 2010.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I think that this year is the best chance since 2010 of a really cold spell, probably in the early to mid part of winter.  So many factors at play but one that is particularly well aligned is solar activity - this screenshot from spaceweather.com:

We are coming off the back of a solar minimum, as we were 11 years ago in 2010 (my markings).  

We have east QBO.  

We have, I think a residual NH impact from last year’s largely blocked (but ultimately slightly disappointing winter, particularly further south in the UK), it has been there all summer.   Remember that Dec 2010 came on the back of a half decent winter in 2009/10.  And others have commented as well as me on the similarities to 2010 as we have approached autumn.  

Strat vortex, all signs are it will be very hampered in getting going, an early SSW not out of the question, but whether that happens or not, there is a reasonable chance this year, that it doesn’t get going and couple with the trop in a vortex intensification event until January in my view.  So many years we say this but they couple in mid December and write off the heart of winter, so this bit is crucial, so even though the early part of winter may be trop led, an eye on the strat will be vital.  

Anyway, bring it on

Edit I should add, that I’m not aware of any big negative factors that can totally override the ones I’ve talked about this year.  Still got nightmares about the Indian Ocean Dipole event that scuppered any chance of cold in 2019/20, despite other favourable indicators .  

Half decent winter 09-10! Coldest for many since 78-79 and colder still in N Scotland. It was a proper cold winter.

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Half decent winter 09-10! Coldest for many since 78-79 and colder still in N Scotland. It was a proper cold winter.

Wasn't it the coldest winter in Scotland since 1962/63?

[Frost HoIIow]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Half decent winter 09-10! Coldest for many since 78-79 and colder still in N Scotland. It was a proper cold winter.

Yes it was a stunning winter and got down to -17C here in the January so it was a classic winter for the northern half of England and Scotland, probably NI too. There was a lot of snow and the cold was distributed in all 3 Winter months where as the cold and snow in the following winter was only really end of November through into December - that winter burst out of the blocks quick but the rest of it was non descript really. I don't recall any noteworthy cold or snow in the January or February. In fact February was very mild!

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Yes it was a stunning winter and got down to -17C here in the January so it was a classic winter for the northern half of England and Scotland, probably NI too. There was a lot of snow and the cold was distributed in all 3 Winter months where as the cold and snow in the following winter was only really end of November through into December - that winter burst out of the blocks quick but the rest of it was non descript really. I don't recall any noteworthy cold or snow in the January or February. In fact February was very mild!

It was pretty good in the snow starved south, too, particularly in December and January!

[bluearmy]

the cfsv2 monthly update has this for dec.  blending this with the ec seasonal provides possibilities 

[carinthian]

10 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

We will see, @Mapantz, you could well be right, but even if it is the best chance since 2010, doesn’t mean it will come off does it?  No.  Definitely best thought about probabilistically - so I’ll start the bidding, 65% chance of the coldest winter since 2010/11.  Buy or sell at that price???

Hope you are right Mike. Very generous odds ! I hope you are right of course but tapping into the cold is always very hard fight for you guys. Some of my family members live in Stockholm and at one time a White Christmas most certainly the norm to be expected but the last few decades has produced 50/50 chance of green/white. Personally, I think those Icelandic Shortwaves are going to develop into something deeper over Scandinavia as we head towards November with potential for some real Arctic cold to tap into. However,the big question for the UK will be the positioning of that stubborn North Atlantic high block ? Mild or Cold . I sit on the fence at this stage with 50% chance of coldest winter for British Isles since 2010/11 .

C

[Mike Poole]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Hope you are right Mike. Very generous odds ! I hope you are right of course but tapping into the cold is always very hard fight for you guys. Some of my family members live in Stockholm and at one time a White Christmas most certainly the norm to be expected but the last few decades has produced 50/50 chance of green/white. Personally, I think those Icelandic Shortwaves are going to develop into something deeper over Scandinavia as we head towards November with potential for some real Arctic cold to tap into. However,the big question for the UK will be the positioning of that stubborn North Atlantic high block ? Mild or Cold . I sit on the fence at this stage with 50% chance of coldest winter for British Isles since 2010/11 .

C

Yes, I guess the question is to be the coldest since 2010/11, what exactly does the upcoming winter have to beat?  Last year?  I’m discounting 2017/18 because the big freeze happened in spring.  Maybe an element of IMBY, but we haven’t had many proper cold spells in the last 10 years.  

[Don]

4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

the cfsv2 monthly update has this for dec.  blending this with the ec seasonal provides possibilities 

Now, that's not so bad!

[Premiere Neige]

15 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, that should not worry us this year!  List of things that could go wrong diminishing, while things that could go right in the ascendency - but these days we practically need the whole damn lot to go in our favour for winter UK cold, this year the best chance since 2010.  

NE Pacific cooling, weak or at worst, moderate la nina, EQBO......what could possibly go wrong?!

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I guess the question is to be the coldest since 2010/11, what exactly does the upcoming winter have to beat?  Last year?  I’m discounting 2017/18 because the big freeze happened in spring.  Maybe an element of IMBY, but we haven’t had many proper cold spells in the last 10 years.  

 I think that has been much the case throughout most of Europe as well. Short intense cold spells that seem to last no more than a week. Really, I think the last prolonged cold spell was way back in 78/79 from memory. The continental cold block used to invade a fair bit westward but recent winters only intermittently . Another winter approaches and fingers crossed again. I hope we coldies do not get let down again !

C

[Gina and Nick]

Hate to be a party pooper guys. As much as I would love a bitterly cold and snowy winter (it's my dream!) This year it would be a disaster for so many people with the gas and electric prices surging and it would inevitably kill a lot of people, because of this maybe we should be careful what we wish for.

Edited October 9, 2021 by Gina and Nick

[damianslaw]

38 minutes ago, Gina and Nick said:

Hate to be a party pooper guys. As much as I would love a bitterly cold and snowy winter (it's my dream!) This year it would be a disaster for so many people with the gas and electric prices surging and it would inevitably kill a lot of people, because of this maybe we should be careful what we wish for.

Mmm cold winters seem to happen during some recent times of economic woe.. 78-79, 09-10 and to a lesser extent 90-91.. recession period of early 80s as well, 81-82.. mind the energy oil crisis and 3 day week 73-74 coincided with a mild winter..

Edited October 9, 2021 by damianslaw

[Seasonal Trim]

3 hours ago, Gina and Nick said:

Hate to be a party pooper guys. As much as I would love a bitterly cold and snowy winter (it's my dream!) This year it would be a disaster for so many people with the gas and electric prices surging and it would inevitably kill a lot of people, because of this maybe we should be careful what we wish for.

Unfortunately we have absolutely no control over what happens.

If it's a mild one, then it would have saved us from a whole load of issues due to the current gas shortage.

If it's a cold one, well, we'll just have to muck through it!

[yamkin]

Back in 2009/2010, we were in a low solar cycle period and as we all know, the big freeze hit most very hard. The so called experts were saying sometime beforehand that the UK will not see very cold winters for many years to come, but they got this totally wrong. We are now in a low solar cycle period which is similar to that of 2009/2010. Nothing is guaranteed regarding a very cold winter, so let's see what unfolds.

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Back in 2009/2010, we were in a low solar cycle period and as we all know, the big freeze hit most very hard. The so called experts were saying sometime beforehand that the UK will not see very cold winters for many years to come, but they got this totally wrong. We are now in a low solar cycle period which is similar to that of 2009/2010. Nothing is guaranteed regarding a very cold winter, so let's see what unfolds.

No, the so-called experts did not say that at all!

Edited October 9, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Mapantz]

On 09/10/2021 at 18:46, Ed Stone said:

No, the so-called experts did not say that at all!

I was going to say the same thing.. 

But, how many very cold winters HAVE we seen? Not many!

[Methuselah]

34 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I was going to say the same thing.. 

But, how many very cold winters HAVE we seen? Not many!

Actually, that's nae a bad question: I've seen lots of very snowy spells, over the years, but the only winter I'd call 'severe' (as in 'Will this ever end?') was late December '62 to mid-Smarch 1963!

Edited October 9, 2021 by Ed Stone

[yamkin]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

No, the so-called experts did not say that at all!

I should have used better wording. In the year 2000, we were told, Snowfalls would be the thing of the past