Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[Dan B]

17 hours ago, mamamia2005 said:

I really hope you are right - but then I hope for a mild winter every year!

 

Does this forum have a ban hammer?!

[Azazel]

1 hour ago, Beanz said:

How odd.  That’s like hoping for a cold summer every year….

 

There's a fair few on here who do hope for that.

[TEITS]

1 hour ago, mamamia2005 said:

Good grief! Excuse me for having a different opinion. Wouldn't life be boring if we were all the same

I personally think it adds a nice balance to the discussion when so many desire a cold winter. Besides perfectly entitled to having your own weather preference.

Even someone like me is actually hoping for a mild winter this year. The very last thing this country needs is a prolonged, widespread freezing winter. Sods law it will be another 1962/3!

[claret047]

I am far from an expert weather wise but avidly read the various threads on this wonderful website. What strikes me to an untutored eye is that, according to the thread dedicated to snow and ice in the Northern Hemisphere, ice and snow build up are ahead of the game compared to previous years and the longer term charts do appear to show, as fickle as they may be, a lot of high pressure to the north east of us. Of course there is no guarantee that the current conditions up in the arctic will prevail or the longer term models will continue the trend, but early indications are certainly encouraging.

What I also like this year is the abundance of berries and rose hips. There is the question as to whether nature knows better than us and is preparing for a harsh winter, or the current abundance merely reflects the conditions that have gone before.

Only time will tell, but for one I certainly enjoy the ride, with if you will excuse the pun highs and lows aplenty.

Kind Regards

Dave

Edited October 4, 2021 by claret047
typo

[TEITS]

46 minutes ago, claret047 said:

.

What I also like this year is the abundance of berries and rose hips. There is the question as to whether nature knows better than us and is preparing for a harsh winter, or the current abundance merely reflects the conditions that have gone before.

Only time will tell, but for one I certainly enjoy the ride, with if you will excuse the pun highs and lows aplenty.

Kind Regards

Dave

Massive amount of berries here. Normally I would say this reflects conditions before but I have found this year to be a very poor season for my bedding plants, shrubs, tomato plants. Lack of warmth, long periods of dry weather, lack of sunshine. Only thing that grew well this year was my petunia plants and some of my dahlia.

[Sunny76]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

very lucky member nowadays then! imagine living before mid 90's when it snowed quite often, if you were born in 2005? you don't know real winters

There were plenty of cold winters post 2005. 2008-12 anyone?

I know people who were born in the early 80s and hate cold winters. They experienced 1987, 1991 and winter 95/96.

[GokouD]

53 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Massive amount of berries here. Normally I would say this reflects conditions before but I have found this year to be a very poor season for my bedding plants, shrubs, tomato plants. Lack of warmth, long periods of dry weather, lack of sunshine. Only thing that grew well this year was my petunia plants and some of my dahlia.

If my garden is anything to go by, it's going to be a cold one! Absolutely swarming with berries.

[tesaro]

If I’m honest. I would prefer a dry Winter if not overly cold.  Plenty of crisp, Sunny Days  would go down a treat.

I fear I may be disappointed this Season.  I think possibly a continuation of the general pressure patterns we have had since Spring. Lows approaching from a more Southerly direction, bumping into cold air! The North May get away with a Sunnier Winter overall. Much as it’s been all Summer really.

We will see

[Polar Bears in Doncaster]

The tree colours don't seem to changing to brown/gold very quickly this autumn - everything still seems pretty green to me!

[jamesgold]

Is there any science or big theory behind this “more berries in early autumn = harsh winter” thing? Seen it on here a few times last few years (not proving right a lot of the time, mind). Would be interested to read about it

And the trees are very full and green this year, but I’m putting that down to very very warm September 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, Polar Bears in Doncaster said:

The tree colours don't seem to changing to brown/gold very quickly this autumn - everything still seems pretty green to me!

Our seasons are certainly out of sync, which is bad news for those of us who would like to experience all 4 seasons at the correct times of the year.

April and May felt more like autumn than spring, whilst August and September were switched. I just hope this upcoming anticyclonic spell delivers some chilly foggy nights. This would help the tree colours to change into those beautiful red, gold and orange hues. 

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Polar Bears in Doncaster said:

The tree colours don't seem to changing to brown/gold very quickly this autumn - everything still seems pretty green to me!

Need a frost, and no sign of that for England and Wales at least in the foreseeable, but if we do see high pressure stick around and shift more direct over the UK, we should in turn lose the cloud cover and by mid October that is a recipe for fog and frost.. I feel a late season colour change may also be down to the late spring possibly. Late October, or early Nov this year will be the peak, could be one of those seasons when everything suddenly bursts into life in a very short space of time. In the Lake District, usually by the third week of October we see full autumn colours, a gale or sharp frost can quickly bring the leaves down though.

[Norrance]

3 hours ago, jamesgold said:

Is there any science or big theory behind this “more berries in early autumn = harsh winter” thing? Seen it on here a few times last few years (not proving right a lot of the time, mind). Would be interested to read about it

And the trees are very full and green this year, but I’m putting that down to very very warm September 

More berries just means that there have been good conditions for their growth so far this year. No indication at all as to future weather I'm afraid!

[Northernlights]

Berries very good here too especially rowan and holly.Took a run back down Spey Valley  early this morning after putting Aurora Storm on train at Aviemore .  A lot  of trees  /bracken  showing lots of autumn colour but we had a drought most of the summer and the trees have been turning since the end of August. Also passed a couple of fields of just ripe barley near Ballindalloch probably sown in May in very cold country.Very noticeable subdued autumn light too with temperature in car showing around 6c outside

[Simon M]

14 hours ago, Azazel said:

There's a fair few on here who do hope for that.

 

*Raises hand*  

[sebastiaan1973]

Meteo France update november, december and january

[MP-R]

On 04/10/2021 at 17:19, tesaro said:

If I’m honest. I would prefer a dry Winter if not overly cold.  Plenty of crisp, Sunny Days  would go down a treat.

I fear I may be disappointed this Season.  I think possibly a continuation of the general pressure patterns we have had since Spring. Lows approaching from a more Southerly direction, bumping into cold air! The North May get away with a Sunnier Winter overall. Much as it’s been all Summer really.

We will see

Useless synoptics in summer but great in winter if there’s cold enough air in place. Always the danger if just Lots of cold rain of course...

I’d also love a dry winter - cold or mild. I love getting out for exercise but hate all the mud.

[Premiere Neige]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Meteo France update november, december and january

With a slight correction north of the high pressure in the north Atlantic that could be a decent chart for December!

[Yarmy]

2 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

With a slight correction north of the high pressure in the north Atlantic that could be a decent chart for December!

I don't really pay much attention to these monthly ensemble means at this range, but the problem there - as ever - is the above average pressure in Eastern Europe. How would the cold get here?

The November mean is ok though.

[Summer8906]

On 03/10/2021 at 11:03, karyo said:

High pressure in the Balkans has become a permanent feature of the last few years regardless of what the QBO and ENSO state is. For example, most parts of Greece had well below average rainfall last winter and I was in short sleeves on most days. The disastrous summer than followed was not a surprise. 

Was this also the case in northern Greece (Thessaloniki area), specifically around the county of Pieria?

I was there for much of last winter and my perception (bearing in mind this is the first time I have spent winter in Greece) is that while fine weather dominated, it was somewhat unsettled at times, notably the first half of December. Indeed, the first week of Decembe was possibly the wettest week I have experienced anywhere, and the rain overnight 6th/7th was the most extreme example of prolonged torrential rain I have ever experienced; and there was further unsettled weather at times in late Dec and the first half of Jan. The low jetstream (which also caused the dull, wet cyclonic winter in southern England) seemed to drag across moderately frequent cold fronts and Atlantic air right across to eastern Greece, with rPm-like conditions frequently in evidence in Dec/Jan. Thundery cold fronts with sharp clearances were also notable, there being around four of these in a six-week period. There was more thunder than typical for the winter in coastal southern England.

There were long dry spells too, nostly with air from the E or NE (giving mild days but cold nights, max 12 min 0 was fairly typical). This was the dominant weather type of the winter. There were also a couple of really potent snowy spells of the kind rarely seen in Southern England, due to lows from the west running into air from Russia which had arrived a day or two before, though the lows seemed to slide SE so did not introduce milder air. Instead, there was a gradual 'warm out' after the snow had stopped, beginning with a couple of sunny but extremely cold days of the kind that take me back to 1985 or 1987. To be honest it was much like what I expected an average winter for this part of Greece to be like, except that I did not expect the extreme rainfall of early December.

So is the usual winter in this part of Greece wetter than that experienced last year?

On 03/10/2021 at 11:03, karyo said:

I was watching a tv interview of a Greek meteorologist after the fires and he said this constant high pressure is the result of climate change and not a temporary feature. He predicted the Balkans and much of the Med is in the process of becoming desert-like.

I really hope that doesn't happen. The Med needs more rain, and northwestern Europe less.

Trends in recent years do seem to have amplified 'stereotypical' weather across Europe, so southern and eastern Europe gets even drier and hotter summers, while northwestern Europe is more dull, wet, and cool (by day, though with warmer nights) than expected even given the 'normal' for the area.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

3 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Meteo France update november, december and january

Not bad, suggests cold cyclonic November and anticyclonic Dec and Jan by my reading? Little snow perhaps, but a lot of fine frosty weather? Similar to what happened at the same time in 1996/97, perhaps?

Not good for alleviating the drought in SE Europe, though, I agree. Looks wet in SW Iberia in Jan, though.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

13 hours ago, Norrance said:

More berries just means that there have been good conditions for their growth so far this year. No indication at all as to future weather I'm afraid!

I noticed that locally, plum trees had a good crop this year. Also lots of cherry laurel berries, more than usual - not that you can eat those.

I wonder if the lack of prolonged spells of extreme and unseasonable mild in late winter has had any effect, in the sense that flowering occurred at a 'natural' time rather than excessively early? Extreme mild Jan/Feb periods lead to unnatural early flowering of some of these species (I've seen plum in flower at the very start of Feb in 2016 and 2020), so they flower when there are less bees about - consequently they are less likely to be pollinated and consequently less fruit. I do recall 2020 with its very mild late winter produced less berries than this year.

Not sure, but just a theory.

I do wonder why, in a climate like northwest Europe, many species respond to temperature more than day length or midday brightness levels. We are a climate susceptible to  midwinter mild, so two weeks of temperatures hovering around 10C day and night, let's say, is not a reliable indicator of whether you are in winter or early spring - but day length, and brightness, definitely is. And flowering in winter means less bees and more susceptibility to the sudden arrival of extreme cold, so I'd have thought it would be a poor evolutionary strategy. What, for instance, if a brutal easterly had arrived in the second week of Feb 2016 and 2020? Would not be good for the early-flowering plum trees.

Edited October 5, 2021 by Summer8906

[jules216]

All important next wave of Indian ocean MJO in November may co-decide our destiny. Looking at P.Roundy regression maps phases 4-7 starting around 5-10.11 mean gold for us, I mean the white gold

 

[Uncertainty]

Here’s the new ECM seasonal for NDJ. 
 

Cant post the monthly breakdown, would if i could.

Strong anticyclonic signal there. Not very exciting from a storm or indeed snow point of view. But, personally, I enjoy benign dry winter weather so I would welcome such an outcome and I think it’s quite plausible.

Interestingly the summer forecast in May was quite similar in the Atlantic

How many times did we see heights building between the U.K. and Iceland? Enough to make the final anomaly far stronger than that.

So so far we have:

- Cansips = flat westerly 

- ECM = U.K. high

- Meteofrance = Icelandic blocking 

Over to the UKMO for the deciding vote but an unremarkable, dryish winter seems the early form horse from a seasonal model perspective.

[jules216]

All important is the T2m look. it has cooled a lot in latest update compared to september.