Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion

[yamkin]

1 hour ago, yamkin said:

Back in 2009/2010, we were in a low solar cycle period and as we all know, the big freeze hit most very hard. The so called experts were saying sometime beforehand that the UK will not see very cold winters for many years to come, but they got this totally wrong. We are now in a low solar cycle period which is similar to that of 2009/2010. Nothing is guaranteed regarding a very cold winter, so let's see what unfolds.

I should have used better wording. In the year 2000, we were told, Snowfalls would be the thing of the past

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, yamkin said:

I should have used better wording. In the year 2000, we were told, Snowfalls would be the thing of the past

We were never told that either, Yamkin. Except perhaps by Ian Brown. We were told a lot of things by Ian Brown!

[WelshSnowFan]

Yes we were....

From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

It seems however, that after over 15 years, the Independent has removed that article, and the URL now comes up like this:

From Watts up with that article here .....read for full info on claim...

One of the longest running climate prediction blunders has disappeared from the Internet – Watts Up With That?

WATTSUPWITHTHAT.COM

---

Readers of WUWT and millions of climate skeptics have read this article before, and in fact it is likely one of the most cited articles ever that illustrates the chutzpah and sheer hubris on displa…

 

[yamkin]

20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We were never told that either, Yamkin. Except perhaps by Ian Brown. We were told a lot of things by Ian Brown!

We were told this and I vividly remember the headlines too

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, WelshSnowFan said:

Yes we were....

From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

It seems however, that after over 15 years, the Independent has removed that article, and the URL now comes up like this:

From Watts up with that article here .....read for full info on claim...

One of the longest running climate prediction blunders has disappeared from the Internet – Watts Up With That?

WATTSUPWITHTHAT.COM

---

Readers of WUWT and millions of climate skeptics have read this article before, and in fact it is likely one of the most cited articles ever that illustrates the chutzpah and sheer hubris on displa…

 

As I said. No we weren't. You should read what you copy & paste?

[yamkin]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

As I said. No we weren't. You should read what you copy & paste?

Not bothered what you say to be honest. This is one of the reasons I don't come on here that much...............Bye

[Roger J Smith]

I think it's fair to say the first generation of climate change was global warming and did concentrate its focus on unlimited warming. I can recall predictions such as palm trees would grow naturally in the coastal northeastern U.S., many ski resorts would have to close down due to a lack of snow, and right here on Net-weather around 2006 or so, unqualified predictions that we would never see a CET month below 3.0 ever again. 

The second generation has become more attuned to variability and routinely explains colder than average weather as displaced polar vortex situations created by warm air invading the natural home of the polar vortex, the high latitudes. This may be closer to the truth although it does not take an entirely skeptical nature to ask, then what displaced them in years like 1895 and 1899 when similar cold hit in places like Texas where the explanation was meant to apply? 

I think there's some truth to the updated version of climate change, as well as some weaknesses. But there's no denying the fact that in high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, temperatures are warming more rapidly than other parts of the globe, on the average. It doesn't prevent the odd excursion into below-normal temperatures however. One recent summer in Resolute, located in the central arctic islands at about 75N lat, was about 4 deg colder than average and about 8 deg colder than some recent very mild summers up there. Ice was quick to leave the Northwest Passage in 2012 and it lured sailors into trying their luck with it in 2013, unfortunately for them the ice stayed in place and they could not get through. This variability has continued since those two years. 

What does it tell us about this coming winter? Nothing, unfortunately. All we know from this sort of study is that the full range of variability is still on the table, but the frequency has changed. The gap between very cold winters has been rather long ever since the epic winter of 1962-63, with intervals of ten to twenty years more or less devoid of any deep cold. It could be argued that the only really cold winters since 1963 have been in 1979 and the 1980s (several), and 2009-10, 2010-11. Others have been near misses or intervals too short, although late Jan into Feb 1991 was close enough to qualify for most. 

We are now at a point where we are starting to reach the recent standard of length of intervals without a classic cold winter or enough of a portion of winter severely cold to get our attention (like 2010-11). But it was 19 years from 1991 to 2010 with only a few minor excursions into deep cold. Will the reduced solar activity perhaps  prevent such a long wait? Or are the odds just reducing so steadily that such minor help will be worthless? 

I don't have a forecast ready yet, but my preliminary thoughts are more towards severe cold developing in eastern North America which is often not a good indicator for western Europe unless that severe cold is late (February cold has done better at hitting on both sides of the Atlantic than January cold which seems to require a longer wave length that means one but not the other, more often than not). There are exceptions. January 1963 was quite cold in eastern North America. 

The one factor that looks good for Britain to turn cold is that there have been some blocking episodes over Russia this autumn, a trend which could intensify. I expect the forecast to include a few windows of opportunity but not any sustained deep cold (for Britain).

[Don]

2 hours ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Unfortunately we have absolutely no control over what happens.

If it's a mild one, then it would have saved us from a whole load of issues due to the current gas shortage.

If it's a cold one, well, we'll just have to muck through it!

It doesn't matter what type of winter we have this year, it will still be doom and gloom! 

[Sunny76]

To be honest, even in a warming climate post 1987/88, the chance of a cold snowy winter does and will still happen. 
 

Even the south still gets a dump of snow on average every 3-5 years.

I was born in 1976, and from memory, even in the golden era of snowfall, I remember quite a few winters without snow.

I’m talking about the 1980-87 era. 

1980, was too young to remember, but from folk who were old enough and lived in London during the time, there was no snow at all, and it was fairly mild during February 1980, almost nudging 15-16c on one day.

1981 was another let down in the London area, with average to mild temps especially in the new year and beyond.

1982 had plenty of snow, but again, I was still too young to remember it. 
 

1983 was very mild, following a mild December 1982 in the south, and February had some light snow showers.

1984 was fairly bland, with no snow in the south.

1985-87. This was the period I remember regular snowfall, but it might be January 1985, and January 1987, which left an imprint on my mind.

Snowfall was common, but it still wasn’t a guarantee in London and the southern areas of the U.K. even back then.

 

I think the chance of a cold one this year is fairly high, following on from last year, which was also a colder one for the last few years.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The one factor that looks good for Britain to turn cold is that there have been some blocking episodes over Russia this autumn, a trend which could intensify. I expect the forecast to include a few windows of opportunity but not any sustained deep cold (for Britain).

Expecting a rather mediocre winter forecast for Britain then (if you want it cold)?  That said, still look forward to reading your thoughts.

[Dancerwithwings]

Just now, Don said:

It doesn't matter what type of winter we have this year, it will still be doom and gloom! 

Not necessarily Don, if we have an incoming/well the likes of an Eastern promise, we’ll you know all is touching 2000 peps in the model thread and we can’t keep up it’s only doom and gloom when at 96h it fails

[Sunny76]

12 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I think it's fair to say the first generation of climate change was global warming and did concentrate its focus on unlimited warming. I can recall predictions such as palm trees would grow naturally in the coastal northeastern U.S., many ski resorts would have to close down due to a lack of snow, and right here on Net-weather around 2006 or so, unqualified predictions that we would never see a CET month below 3.0 ever again. 

The second generation has become more attuned to variability and routinely explains colder than average weather as displaced polar vortex situations created by warm air invading the natural home of the polar vortex, the high latitudes. This may be closer to the truth although it does not take an entirely skeptical nature to ask, then what displaced them in years like 1895 and 1899 when similar cold hit in places like Texas where the explanation was meant to apply? 

I think there's some truth to the updated version of climate change, as well as some weaknesses. But there's no denying the fact that in high latitudes of the northern hemisphere, temperatures are warming more rapidly than other parts of the globe, on the average. It doesn't prevent the odd excursion into below-normal temperatures however. One recent summer in Resolute, located in the central arctic islands at about 75N lat, was about 4 deg colder than average and about 8 deg colder than some recent very mild summers up there. Ice was quick to leave the Northwest Passage in 2012 and it lured sailors into trying their luck with it in 2013, unfortunately for them the ice stayed in place and they could not get through. This variability has continued since those two years. 

What does it tell us about this coming winter? Nothing, unfortunately. All we know from this sort of study is that the full range of variability is still on the table, but the frequency has changed. The gap between very cold winters has been rather long ever since the epic winter of 1962-63, with intervals of ten to twenty years more or less devoid of any deep cold. It could be argued that the only really cold winters since 1963 have been in 1979 and the 1980s (several), and 2009-10, 2010-11. Others have been near misses or intervals too short, although late Jan into Feb 1991 was close enough to qualify for most. 

We are now at a point where we are starting to reach the recent standard of length of intervals without a classic cold winter or enough of a portion of winter severely cold to get our attention (like 2010-11). But it was 19 years from 1991 to 2010 with only a few minor excursions into deep cold. Will the reduced solar activity perhaps  prevent such a long wait? Or are the odds just reducing so steadily that such minor help will be worthless? 

I don't have a forecast ready yet, but my preliminary thoughts are more towards severe cold developing in eastern North America which is often not a good indicator for western Europe unless that severe cold is late (February cold has done better at hitting on both sides of the Atlantic than January cold which seems to require a longer wave length that means one but not the other, more often than not). There are exceptions. January 1963 was quite cold in eastern North America. 

The one factor that looks good for Britain to turn cold is that there have been some blocking episodes over Russia this autumn, a trend which could intensify. I expect the forecast to include a few windows of opportunity but not any sustained deep cold (for Britain).

I think the 1991 cold snowy February in the U.K. coincided with a very mild period of weather in New York. I recall watching an old weather report from the bbc, and the presenter said it was 21c in nyc, while we were freezing in southern England, with temps several degrees below zero for at least 3-4 days on the trot. 

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Not necessarily Don, if we have an incoming/well the likes of an Eastern promise, we’ll you know all is touching 2000 peps in the model thread and we can’t keep up it’s only doom and gloom when at 96h it fails

I was referring to what happens regardless whether it's a mild or cold winter, the media will still promote doom and gloom!  I.e. if a mild winter saves us from gas shortages, there will be something else!  This is why I don't bother with the news now!

Edited October 9, 2021 by Don

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

I was referring to what happens regardless whether it's a mild or cold winter, the media will still promote doom and gloom!  I.e. if a mild winter saves us from gas shortages, there will be something else!  This is why I don't bother with the news now!

Got ya, true words

[RJBingham]

1 hour ago, WelshSnowFan said:

Yes we were....

From the Independent’s most cited article: Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past by Charles Onians:

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.

It seems however, that after over 15 years, the Independent has removed that article, and the URL now comes up like this:

From Watts up with that article here .....read for full info on claim...

One of the longest running climate prediction blunders has disappeared from the Internet – Watts Up With That?

WATTSUPWITHTHAT.COM

---

Readers of WUWT and millions of climate skeptics have read this article before, and in fact it is likely one of the most cited articles ever that illustrates the chutzpah and sheer hubris on displa…

 

along the same lines

Increasing Likelihood of Extreme Snowfall for the U.S., Scandinavia, and Asia in Future Winters Forecast While Western Europe Will Face Much Less Snow

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

In the United States, sufficient temperatures remain for extreme snowfall to occur. By contrast in Europe, snowfalls will drastically decrease.

 

[Don]

18 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I think the 1991 cold snowy February in the U.K. coincided with a very mild period of weather in New York. I recall watching an old weather report from the bbc, and the presenter said it was 21c in nyc, while we were freezing in southern England, with temps several degrees below zero for at least 3-4 days on the trot. 

Yes, I remember watching that forecast by the late Ian McCaskill (I think).

Edited October 9, 2021 by Don

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

I was referring to what happens regardless whether it's a mild or cold winter, the media will still promote doom and gloom!  I.e. if a mild winter saves us from gas shortages, there will be something else!  This is why I don't bother with the news now!

Yes agree with this Don, the media have become a nightmare since the pandemic began.  I’m fully stocked up with tins of food and beer (have to be in case I have to self isolate). Would much rather I have to use them because of snow than because I’ve been reinfected by Covid again, but hey, who knows what is round the corner…

[Roger J Smith]

That 1991 case was more on the boundary of being a Jan or Feb analogue for comparison too, however, I didn't mention that the Feb correlation is better when applied to UK February cold, there are more cases of North American Feb cold and some of them don't come with a cold UK outcome, for example, Feb 1993 was very cold, and also Feb 2015. But the good matches include 1855, 1895 and 1917. Feb 1947 was more variable than cold in parts of eastern NA and quite mild in far eastern Canada due to the same easterly flow that brought the severe cold to Britain. 

Anyway, teleconnections are not my preferred approach, I think every year has its own unique characteristics so the challenge is to foresee what those might be. It has been a very warm October so far in the eastern U.S., the three warmest Octobers there were in 1947, 1963 and 1971, each of which was followed by a fairly robust winter with at least one big snowstorm. But none of the three winters were all that great for the UK (1947-48, 1963-64, 1971-72) although there were cold days in each of them, not absolute mildfests.

Besides 2006 there have not been very many CET cases of a September and October both in the top 20.  You wouldn't want 2006 as your main analogue of course. The closest to that 2006 double (1st, t-3rd) was 1731 (t12, t14) which is probably too far back to use as useful guidance but for the record, the CET values in the winter of 1731-32 from Nov to Mar were 7.8 Nov, 5.2 Dec, 2.4 Jan, 6.4 Feb and 6.1 Mar. For that era, 2.4 Jan was not all that unusual and could easily be a proxy for a near normal outcome now. 

Other years with any sort of sustained warmth Sep-Oct would include 1795, 1898, 1949, 1959, 1989, 2005, 2011, and 2014. Not much on offer there, just the odd two-week cold spell like second half of Jan 1950. similar Jan 2012 into early Feb. 

FWIW, we are not in a good groove from an analogue perspective, but there's always a first time for an analogue set to go off the rails I suppose. That very warm Sep in 1729 had a rather average Oct following, but also that was not much of a winter either. Same comment applies to 2016. 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

That 1991 case was more on the boundary of being a Jan or Feb analogue for comparison too, however, I didn't mention that the Feb correlation is better when applied to UK February cold, there are more cases of North American Feb cold and some of them don't come with a cold UK outcome, for example, Feb 1993 was very cold, and also Feb 2015. But the good matches include 1855, 1895 and 1917. Feb 1947 was more variable than cold in parts of eastern NA and quite mild in far eastern Canada due to the same easterly flow that brought the severe cold to Britain. 

Anyway, teleconnections are not my preferred approach, I think every year has its own unique characteristics so the challenge is to foresee what those might be. It has been a very warm October so far in the eastern U.S., the three warmest Octobers there were in 1947, 1963 and 1971, each of which was followed by a fairly robust winter with at least one big snowstorm. But none of the three winters were all that great for the UK (1947-48, 1963-64, 1971-72) although there were cold days in each of them, not absolute mildfests.

Besides 2006 there have not been very many CET cases of a September and October both in the top 20.  You wouldn't want 2006 as your main analogue of course. The closest to that 2006 double (1st, t-3rd) was 1731 (t12, t14) which is probably too far back to use as useful guidance but for the record, the CET values in the winter of 1731-32 from Nov to Mar were 7.8 Nov, 5.2 Dec, 2.4 Jan, 6.4 Feb and 6.1 Mar. For that era, 2.4 Jan was not all that unusual and could easily be a proxy for a near normal outcome now. 

Other years with any sort of sustained warmth Sep-Oct would include 1795, 1898, 1949, 1959, 1989, 2005, 2011, and 2014. Not much on offer there, just the odd two-week cold spell like second half of Jan 1950. similar Jan 2012 into early Feb. 

FWIW, we are not in a good groove from an analogue perspective, but there's always a first time for an analogue set to go off the rails I suppose. That very warm Sep in 1729 had a rather average Oct following, but also that was not much of a winter either. Same comment applies to 2016. 

Thankfully it isn’t 1729 then!

[Sunny76]

22 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I remember watching that forecast by the late Ian McCaskill (I think).

That’s the one. I couldn’t believe it at the time, but the distance of 3000 miles can make a big difference.

 

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

That 1991 case was more on the boundary of being a Jan or Feb analogue for comparison too, however, I didn't mention that the Feb correlation is better when applied to UK February cold, there are more cases of North American Feb cold and some of them don't come with a cold UK outcome, for example, Feb 1993 was very cold, and also Feb 2015. But the good matches include 1855, 1895 and 1917. Feb 1947 was more variable than cold in parts of eastern NA and quite mild in far eastern Canada due to the same easterly flow that brought the severe cold to Britain. 

Anyway, teleconnections are not my preferred approach, I think every year has its own unique characteristics so the challenge is to foresee what those might be. It has been a very warm October so far in the eastern U.S., the three warmest Octobers there were in 1947, 1963 and 1971, each of which was followed by a fairly robust winter with at least one big snowstorm. But none of the three winters were all that great for the UK (1947-48, 1963-64, 1971-72) although there were cold days in each of them, not absolute mildfests.

Besides 2006 there have not been very many CET cases of a September and October both in the top 20.  You wouldn't want 2006 as your main analogue of course. The closest to that 2006 double (1st, t-3rd) was 1731 (t12, t14) which is probably too far back to use as useful guidance but for the record, the CET values in the winter of 1731-32 from Nov to Mar were 7.8 Nov, 5.2 Dec, 2.4 Jan, 6.4 Feb and 6.1 Mar. For that era, 2.4 Jan was not all that unusual and could easily be a proxy for a near normal outcome now. 

Other years with any sort of sustained warmth Sep-Oct would include 1795, 1898, 1949, 1959, 1989, 2005, 2011, and 2014. Not much on offer there, just the odd two-week cold spell like second half of Jan 1950. similar Jan 2012 into early Feb. 

FWIW, we are not in a good groove from an analogue perspective, but there's always a first time for an analogue set to go off the rails I suppose. That very warm Sep in 1729 had a rather average Oct following, but also that was not much of a winter either. Same comment applies to 2016. 

I note you refer to the warmest US October's and compare that to the present. We are only 9 days into October though.  

[Roger J Smith]

True, and I don't think this October will quite match any of those three (two of which I am old enough to recall, fabulous weather that lasted a few days into November before first getting quite wet and then colder) ... 1900, 1916, 1946, 1961 and 2007 were also quite warm Octobers in that region, among others, and the end of Oct 1950 into early November broke records. 

I have pretty much finished my forecast preparation and this is the sort of winter I foresee for the UK ...

Mild will dominate over cold by a ratio of about 3:1 but there could be one noteworthy cold spell and the timing for it seems most likely to be mid-winter (January) rather than Dec or Feb, although it could start late enough to persist into part of February. This colder spell may involve one or two snowfalls. Other parts of the winter will likely see mostly rain with any snow confined to higher ground in the north. It does not seem likely to be overly stormy (like 2013-14 for example) and could rate as a relatively dry winter but with enough rain from time to time to resemble an average winter. Expect CET values in the range of 5 to 7 in Dec, 3 to 4.5 for Jan, and 4 to 6 for Feb.

As such, it will not be vastly different from last winter, except that I think there might be more snow during the colder phase. 

I have already posted elsewhere that I think the winter will be rather severe in eastern North America due to a favorable storm track for snowstorms and abundant cold air outbreaks there. As with winters like 1898-99 or 2014-15, those dynamics tend to energize the mid-Atlantic storm track to run from near Florida to near Iceland on a rather regular basis, which can set up long spells of zonal flow or mild weather in western Europe. Hopefully at times when this process weakens, blocking can establish for brief intervals and western Europe can see some wintry synoptics. I don't think those will be a dominant theme but at least if one good episode develops then some enjoyable wintry weather can result. 

[Uncertainty]

Next up CMCC seasonal: November to January

Quite interesting to say the least. Similar to Meteofrance. 

The DJF is zonal so you would imagine Feb to be very Atlantic driven and looking through the anomalies November looks to be the most blocked. 

There could always be a late winter SSW to change that but it’s not there in the modelling at present as far as I can see?

Regardless of an seasonal modelling TBH @Roger J Smith I would take your forecast if offered to me now! A noteworthy cold spell and veering on drier rather than wetter is a good winter for recent standards!

 

[sebastiaan1973]

https://sps.cmcc.it/forecast/

[Summer8906]

14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

To be honest, even in a warming climate post 1987/88, the chance of a cold snowy winter does and will still happen. 
 

Even the south still gets a dump of snow on average every 3-5 years.

I was born in 1976, and from memory, even in the golden era of snowfall, I remember quite a few winters without snow.

I’m talking about the 1980-87 era. 

I can remember these winters fairly well as I am a little older, particularly those from 1981 onwards. This for northwestern Sussex:

14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1980, was too young to remember, but from folk who were old enough and lived in London during the time, there was no snow at all, and it was fairly mild during February 1980, almost nudging 15-16c on one day.

This was indeed snowless, more or less. There was one light snow shower just before Christmas in 1979 and that was it! I always remember this one as a mild winter, and Dec and Feb were, but surprisingly, January was apparently actually colder than average and often anticyclonic.

14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1981 was another let down in the London area, with average to mild temps especially in the new year and beyond.

There was one short lived snowfall on Sunday February 21st where I was, falling early morning, but it had gone by the afternoon. Presumably it was on a front introducing milder air. I also remember a snowfall on Friday November 28th, 1980. It laid above around 150 metres but not lower down; that evening I was staying with a friend who lived on a hill around 200m elevation which was lucky! But overall, mildish and benign. I recall this as a very sunny winter. January 2012 brought back childhood memories of January 1981.

There was also April 26th 1981, which country-wide was apparently a truly historic event with very heavy snow. It affected the south-west, the Midlands and the north - everywhere apart from the southeast, where I was! I do oddly remember this day as being very wet and thundery - I remember being stuck indoors all day on a Sunday. Never remember hearing about the event on the news, but then again I probably was too young to follow news back in those days. One would guess that an arctic airmass covered most of the country but rPm air had arrived in the southeast via a convoluted track over France.

14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1982 had plenty of snow, but again, I was still too young to remember it.

I recall two heavy snowfalls, one on an unknown date in December 1981, and one on Saturday 9th January 1982. I seem to remember that a major storm melted most of the first batch of snow around December 13th, but then there were lighter falls up to Christmas. The January 1982 snow took a long time to melt, despite the month apparently being mild from the 15th. There was little or no rain though which presumably enhanced its longevity.

14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1983 was very mild, following a mild December 1982 in the south, and February had some light snow showers.

Generally mild, dry and cloudy if I remember right, certainly in December and January. However February was colder and there was quite a heavy snowfall at some point before the half-term. The snow from this laid for about a week and there was a lengthy cold but sunny period.

14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1984 was fairly bland, with no snow in the south.

Generally wet and windy, though February became cold and frosty. January was apparently better in the north. In the meterological winter I recall one very short lived light snowfall one day early in December, which fell in the early morning and rapidly melted.

14 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

13 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1985-87. This was the period I remember regular snowfall, but it might be January 1985, and January 1987, which left an imprint on my mind.

An epic period. Winter 1985 was a historic one for snow, with heavy snowfall on Sunday January 6th which mitigated the gloom of taking the Christmas tree down. The snow laid for two whole weeks, melting on Monday January 21st as the Atlantic broke through. At one time there was a forecast for the snow to be 'topped up' by a Channel low around the 15th, but in the event nothing happened.

Then a further heavy snowfall on Saturday February 9th, the snow still lying in the half-term which was presumably week of 18th. A dry thaw this time with mild, sunny weather late in the month.

1986 had that February and was another year with two separate heavy snowfalls, on Thursday February 6th and Saturday March 1st. I don't think the first ever melted properly, but it became seriously worn - if I remember right, snow literally laid all month from the 6th. Cold easterlies throughout. Perhaps the coldest month since 1963?

1987 just had the one spell but it was severe. The snow arrived sometime around January 12th (strangely I can't recall the exact date, though I do recall Sat Jan 10th having an 'ominous' intensely cold NE wind) and persisted through the whole of that week with extreme low daytime temps and ice on the windows. Rail system ground to a halt with electric trains unable to use the Portsmouth line; those trains which did run had to be hauled by diesel locomotives. This didn't happen in 1985 or 1986. Still lots of snow on Sat 17th. Like 1982, the thaw was very slow, with no rain (persisting around two weeks in total, I think) and I think temps remained slightly below average right up to the end of the month.

I will also add 1979, which I have a much more vague memory of - and I was living in Cheshire at the time. The first snowfall was on New Years' Day and persisted the whole of the first week before a thaw 6th/7th. This was, in fact, the first snow of my lifetime that I recall being excited about - I remember forecast of snow on New Years' Eve and looking forward to it, but wondering if it would actually happen. There then followed a foggy period and the exact order of events is vague for the rest of the winter but I do recall further heavy snowfalls. This was probably the snowiest winter of my lifetime though sadly I don't remember it as clearly as the 80s events.

So overall, 1979-87 was noteworthy and such a period hasn't been repeated since, though 2009-13 produced a fairly good effort for modern mild times. Widespread Southern England heavy snow has been rare outside these periods, occurring only in (Jan year) 1991, 1994 (brief), 1996 and 2018.

Edited October 10, 2021 by Summer8906