Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks

[lassie23]

 Summer Sun i hope it isn't another forecast littered with might. perhaps, and maybe

[Summer Sun]

Friday 9 Feb - Sunday 18 Feb

Cold air already established across the northern UK is likely to extend to all parts through next weekend. As it does so there is a risk of some significant snowfall for parts of the UK, perhaps central areas most prone to this as the but this aspect is very uncertain at this stage. Across the north cold throughout with snow showers tending to focus on northeastern areas while for the far south the period may start of with some rain and near average temperatures, before the cold air reaches here by the start of next week. Windy at times, especially so in some eastern areas where a notably wind chill is expected. Temperatures ranging from rather mild in the south at first, to cold, perhaps very cold in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[winterof79]

BOOM.

[Mcconnor8]

 offerman

Thread for Met Office discussions

[Summer Sun]

Monday 19 Feb - Monday 4 Mar

Although there is still some uncertainty, conditions most likely to be drier and more settled overall for much of the UK with lighter winds mainly from the north or northwest but potential for some stronger winds at times later on. This would increase the likelihood of colder conditions developing more widely for a time with potential for fog and notable frosts alongside wintry showers across the north/northwest or more widely as any isolated fronts move through later in the period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

 winterof79 That's what I was hoping from today's update! 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 9 Feb - Sunday 18 Feb

Cold air already established across the N of the UK is likely to extend to all parts through next weekend. As it does so there is a risk of further sleet or snowfall for some parts, but this should be more limited in extent than earlier in the week. So, becoming generally cold, but bright throughout (some uncertainty as to how quickly this happens in the S/SE) with snow showers tending to focus on coasts, especially in the E, Elsewhere, a decent amount of dry weather, but with some hard overnight frosts and a risk of ice. Windy at times, especially in the E at first, with a notable wind-chill. Temperatures ranging from rather mild in the S/SE at first, to cold, perhaps very cold in the N.

Tuesday 20 Feb to Tuesday 5 Mar

Although there is still some uncertainty, conditions slightly more-likely to be drier and more settled overall with lighter winds, from a more N'ly direction than usual. This increases the likelihood of cold conditions developing more widely with an enhanced risk of fog and frost, alongside wintry showers almost anywhere, but perhaps most-especially near E or N facing coasts. There is still a risk (albeit lower than climatology) of Atlantic frontal systems (and less-cold conditions) bringing rain across parts of the country now and again, especially the W/SW but this would likely bring a longer period of snow somewhere.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

 

[Don]

Another ok update today.

[MIKE LEVITT]

Lot of cold weather in latest monthly outlook,yet bbc temps for hull next weekend and next week saying temps around 8.i dont call that cold

[Don]

 MIKE LEVITT remember the BBC are separate to the Metoffice these days.

[MIKE LEVITT]

Ok.someones wrong then.

[lassie23]

The beeb keep London mild throughout, who is going to end up with scrambled eggs on their face, beeb or met

[Norrance]

UK long range weather forecast

Sunday 11 Feb - Tuesday 20 Feb

Remaining unsettled initially with further rain and hill snow across the far N, elsewhere a mixture of sunny intervals and rain showers. Thereafter a trend toward more settled, but likely cold conditions is favoured with snow showers tending to focus on eastern coasts. Elsewhere, a decent amount of dry weather, but with some hard overnight frosts and a risk of ice. Again milder air may try to encroach from the Atlantic, bringing with it the usual risk of rain turning to snow as it encounters the cold air, but this very uncertain. Windy at times, especially in the E at first, with a notable wind-chill. Temperatures generally in the range rather cold to cold, especially across the north.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 6 Feb 2024

[Don]

 Norrance A downgrade for the weekend at least.  We just can't seem to catch a break this winter!

[Norrance]

 Don Yes looks like the low is going to hang around and the temperatures mixing out the coldest air. After that?

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 11 Feb - Tuesday 20 Feb

Remaining unsettled initially with further rain and hill snow across the far N, elsewhere a mixture of sunny intervals and rain showers. Thereafter a trend toward more settled, but likely cold conditions is favoured with snow showers tending to focus on eastern coasts. Elsewhere, a decent amount of dry weather, but with some hard overnight frosts and a risk of ice. Again milder air may try to encroach from the Atlantic, bringing with it the usual risk of rain turning to snow as it encounters the cold air, but this very uncertain. Windy at times, especially in the E at first, with a notable wind-chill. Temperatures generally in the range rather cold to cold, especially across the north.

Wednesday 21 Feb - Wednesday 6 Mar

Although there is still some uncertainty, conditions slightly more-likely to be drier and more settled overall with lighter winds, from a more N'ly or E'ly direction than usual. This increases the likelihood of cold conditions developing more widely with an enhanced risk of fog and frost, alongside wintry showers almost anywhere, but perhaps most-especially near E or N facing coasts. There is still a risk (albeit lower than climatology) of Atlantic frontal systems (and less-cold conditions) bringing rain across parts of the country now and again, especially the W/SW but this would likely bring a longer period of snow somewhere.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk

[Don]

 Norrance After the weekend, I wouldn’t bank on any cold! This has been up there with the most frustrating winters ever and I can’t see things turning around now.  The atmosphere just hasn’t been quite primed to deliver this season.  My guess would be a plume later in the month, similar to that in February 2019!

Edited February 6 by Don

[SunnyG]

 lassie23 met,  I bet. Their London forecasts tend to be mostly wrong. For tonight they have a minimum temp of 1c and it's really mild out there now.

[Summer Sun]

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Becoming colder with wintry precipitation at times

Wednesday 7 February to – Sunday 11 February

Unsettled with some snow in the north.

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 18 February

A bit colder than average. Some wintry showers.

Monday 19 February to – Saturday 2 March

Colder than normal.

Further ahead

On Friday, the next update will take a look further into March and might give us some idea if we will see a change to milder and unsettled conditions as we move further into March. And that is assuming that the new models continue with the colder theme until then.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

[Froze were the Days]

These updates are just baffling...stuck in 2018/19 mode.

[johncam]

Tried to post,  but latest update 12th to 21st definitely a downgrade.

[Norrance]

 johncam yes a big downgrade

UK long range weather forecast

Monday 12 Feb - Wednesday 21 Feb

Cloudy with showers or longer spells of rain across northern areas at first, with drier conditions in the south. Becoming mainly dry by the middle of next week, especially in the east, whereas western areas may see some rain or showers spread in from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures will probably be around normal, although colder conditions could develop in the east with overnight frost. Into weekend and following week, much of the UK will lie under the influence of predominantly dry conditions thanks to high pressure extending from mainland Europe, albeit with temperatures turning colder. However, milder, wetter weather from the Atlantic will always lie close by, with this encroaching from the west at times.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 7 Feb 2024

[johncam]

 Norrance thanks for posting mate 

[Norrance]

 johncam Now just waiting to see what the extended says. Probably inconclusive as is usual.

[Summer Sun]

Monday 12 Feb - Wednesday 21 Feb

Cloudy with showers or longer spells of rain across northern areas at first, with drier conditions in the south. Becoming mainly dry by the middle of next week, especially in the east, whereas western areas may see some rain or showers spread in from the Atlantic at times. Temperatures will probably be around normal, although colder conditions could develop in the east with overnight frost. Into weekend and following week, much of the UK will lie under the influence of predominantly dry conditions thanks to high pressure extending from mainland Europe, albeit with temperatures turning colder. However, milder, wetter weather from the Atlantic will always lie close by, with this encroaching from the west at times.

Thursday 22 Feb to Thursday 7 Mar

Whilst there is a large degree of uncertainty, conditions are most likely to be drier and more settled than usual through the remainder of February with winds from the east or north. This increases the chance of cold conditions and fog, with some wintry showers also possible. Early March may see a return to more changeable conditions with an increasing chance of weather systems moving in from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk