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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

Blessed Weather

By Blessed Weather
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Griff said:

Sponsored by the chuckle brothers... To me.. To you... 

Bit more blocky again, more light blue... 

 

ECH1-144.gif

And again

ECH1-168.gif

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Polar. Aficionado

Polar.

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM , UKMO, GFS T72:

A6E21CC2-C01B-4009-A6FD-C5394598430D.thumb.png.2c960858b9be1b9509f722977b9b7da3.pngE90859D3-FCC3-403A-8A02-9D5358D900E5.thumb.gif.f93cff838ff57b0016ab44178a586198.gif7F598A0F-E193-4E0F-A0D7-394DED1A98AB.thumb.gif.68ac53b1ea90de83c386dc60ba6dd4a4.gif

Pick the bones out of that!  UKMO running it further east, ECM having it way deeper.  Nothing after this is going to get resolved until this is.  

Yes exactly Mike. Futile wondering will happen after Tuesday until this gets resolved.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

My first thoughts are....what the bloody hell as happened to the vortex! Its slithered all over the place...Absolutely know signs of a strong vortex from ecm at all 

ECH1-216.gif

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

My first thoughts are....what the bloody hell as happened to the vortex! Its slithered all over the place...Absolutely know signs of a strong vortex from ecm at all 

ECH1-216.gif

Very strange times, the gem which is usually similar... 

gemnh-0-216.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, Griff said:

Very strange times, the gem which is usually similar... 

gemnh-0-216.png

Wow griff..the vortex looks shot...yet we see an increase in those Euro heights...tbh mate this is a bad run which adds to a rather bad day for model watching...im gonna do something better with me time and watch Worzel gummidge now

ECH1-240.gif

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

My first thoughts are....what the bloody hell as happened to the vortex! Its slithered all over the place...Absolutely know signs of a strong vortex from ecm at all 

ECH1-216.gif

It is no longer forecast to be coupled to the strat (which never happened) - the strat vortex is accelerating  and we’re left with this mess, well it suits me!

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Short term pain to bring us long term gain Mike,one hopes. But yeh it looks a complete mess there.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
On 04/12/2021 at 18:52, MATTWOLVES said:

My first thoughts are....what the bloody hell as happened to the vortex! Its slithered all over the place...Absolutely know signs of a strong vortex from ecm at all 

ECH1-216.gif

Just a quick one Matt as i have guest's down but at 240 hrs the tpv on the ECM looks like this,...

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.dd56aadcd159d2185ae09446693e2e25.gifSwiss-Cheese-AdobeStock_35089603.thumb.jpeg.6d2b4fe578ba9793e79ca84a496ed9de.jpeg

SWISS CHEESE.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Just a quick one Matt as i have guest's down but at 240 hrs the ECM looks like this,...

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.dd56aadcd159d2185ae09446693e2e25.gifSwiss-Cheese-AdobeStock_35089603.thumb.jpeg.6d2b4fe578ba9793e79ca84a496ed9de.jpeg

My god si...its all over once you get the inlaws round

To sum up though...current output may not look great...but we still could potentially  be heading in a much better direction before much longer..

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It is no longer forecast to be coupled to the strat (which never happened) - the strat vortex is accelerating  and we’re left with this mess, well it suits me!

Hi Mike, coupling has been mentioned (or lack of) a few times today and many times over the last week or so (especially forecasts by the pros on social media) ... 

Very interested to hear the latest as I'd assumed it was a done deal

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted
On 04/12/2021 at 19:04, MATTWOLVES said:

My god si...its all over once you get the inlaws round

To sum up though...current output may not look great...but we still could potentially  be heading in a much better direction before much longer..

Yes all looking a bit meh!,...but stress not,...i am looking for future developments now from the lag on the MJO phase 7

the gfs/control caught my eye in fl,... i will be watching like an eagle from now on...

gfsnh-0-384.thumb.png.40350bbc27113f2f8e9fbaac3ce0b784.pnggensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.bf25ccd8d9066d7a70f7ebd0f32d684e.pngeastern_golden_eagle_m-a4y_millers_field_710_1036_small.thumb.jpg.95d84cd5c4c65774e175ab409497c3ef.jpg

 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

terrible looking ECM!lets hope  for a better run in the morning.

Yeh. I think we're looking to after the 20th for the chance of anything properly wintry.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
On 04/12/2021 at 19:12, mountain shadow said:

Yeh. I think we're looking to after the 20th for the chance of anything properly wintry.

Alright everyone, let's close the thread for 17 days. Nothing to see here.

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted

Gefs showing a pressure rise as we approach Christmas-C.England.

graphe4_10000___-1.41509433962_52.1862348178_.thumb.png.6d1ad3e632d3d57eb2d043b3215d5cbe.png

so a continuing sign of this pattern change later on after the current pattern of Atlantic v Scandinavian heights skirmish.We could well see a few milder days before this next amplification and the retreat of the Canadian vortex.

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Griff said:

Hi Mike, coupling has been mentioned (or lack of) a few times today and many times over the last week or so (especially forecasts by the pros on social media) ... 

Very interested to hear the latest as I'd assumed it was a done deal

Looks to me like it isn’t yet, but forecast to be by GFS (0z) T240:

69247531-D195-43C8-8A6E-23B92D09147A.thumb.png.8945200b6e80db653686c3d4b9f77ee9.pngCE25568D-F1BA-4275-907A-BBA1D965520D.thumb.png.192c1498cafdee7cce3de3df4c8980e5.png

But as we know, T96 is well into FI so it is a bit early to call, also we have the much vaunted MJO to ride wild horses to gallop to our salvation.  Phase 7 I think the lead horse is called…

Edited by Mike Poole
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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Posted

96hrs maximum of semi reliable. ....from all models....tbh does not get more volItile than that.....

ecmt850.096-5.png

h850t850eu-18.webp

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minus10 Veteran

minus10

Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted
11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks to me like it isn’t yet, but forecast to be by GFS (0z) T240:

69247531-D195-43C8-8A6E-23B92D09147A.thumb.png.8945200b6e80db653686c3d4b9f77ee9.pngCE25568D-F1BA-4275-907A-BBA1D965520D.thumb.png.192c1498cafdee7cce3de3df4c8980e5.png

But as we know, T96 is well into FI so it is a bit early to call, also we have the much vaunted MJO to ride wild horses to gallop to our salvation.  Phase 7 I think the lead horse is called…

Interesting charts Mike. How can you tell that the top one isnt coupled and the bottom one is....if you dont mind me asking...

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Interesting charts Mike. How can you tell that the top one isnt coupled and the bottom one is....if you dont mind me asking...

I presume you are on a phone, if they are not side by side!  Anyway the first shows the vortex in a different place at the top (strat) compared to the bottom (trop), the second chart shows the same pretty much all the way down the layers of the atmosphere, GFS 0z forecast.  But I don’t think it is a done deal, it certainly isn’t compatible with the ECM T240 chart tonight, assuming the strat is still in roughly the same place, the trop vortex is all over the place like a Jackson Pollock!  That is a good sign.  

A8CB8712-46A9-4B31-BDA8-4B7B34B59FF0.thumb.png.0ea932e325e893b62544db0c2e99b31b.png

Edited by Mike Poole
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

12z extended eps mean suggests *very* strong Sceuro heights - will be interesting to see the DeBilt ensembles if any colder runs are beginning to feed through. 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

12z extended eps mean suggests *very* strong Sceuro heights - will be interesting to see the DeBilt ensembles if any colder runs are beginning to feed through. 

Sceuro can of course provide cold surface conditions at this time of year ...

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM clusters, I’m not even going to talk about the patterns, just the border colours, you’ll see why in a mo:

T72-T96:

91305144-2912-4898-8E47-F0983BD50221.thumb.png.ebe0acc8bf4789b2eefe3de987fd8870.png

All tending to green -NAO.  For what it is worth with a storm incoming!

T120-T168:

91DCFCC4-7A56-45DC-851B-8754B9EEED5A.thumb.png.73428735c55acb6d113cad306ddd3abf.png

Blue borders, +NAPO.  Five shades of sh(te. 

T192-T240:

E7AE6972-5943-477D-8E50-A0C1D6EED960.thumb.png.30257752ba9962b12071e3db6e8ef897.png

That doesn’t look too good either, T264+

863E5D9B-F883-4B7D-8189-C80747791C06.thumb.png.73b3526f7f283b0095c134017dacbb33.png

BIG RED BORDER SCANDI BLOCK, apart from cluster 5.  Which is a long way of saying what @mulzy just said .

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