Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[mulzy]

Ext eps mean very similar to last night.  Strong mid Scandi heights - the trend is moving those heights further north day by day - let's hope it continues.

UK Temps mild from days 5-11 then trending back towards normal / slightly below normal through the day 12-15 period. 

[bluearmy]

no sign that the 46 has weeks 2-3 far wrong and the expectation would therefore be that 4 won’t be too far away. 
 

blocked which means likely chilly or cold and expectations from the masses that retrogression is feasible as we head towards new year. not particularly from me because I don’t currently see any notable let up in the canadian tpv segment going forward. 

anyway, looks like it may well be a chilly holiday period but whether that’s grey and dank or bright and frosty remains non forecastable  

[Staffmoorlands]

8 hours ago, Don said:

I think most can wait a few weeks and put up with some milder weather in the meantime, if that means colder weather later in December and January! 

There is no guarantee that the weather will be any colder at the end of December or January.  The Met Office are going with a mild Christmas at the moment but dry.

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

no sign that the 46 has weeks 2-3 far wrong and the expectation would therefore be that 4 won’t be too far away. 
 

blocked which means likely chilly or cold and expectations from the masses that retrogression is feasible as we head towards new year. not particularly from me because I don’t currently see any notable let up in the canadian tpv segment going forward. 

anyway, looks like it may well be a chilly holiday period but whether that’s grey and dank or bright and frosty remains non forecastable  

So it's a case of place your bets for the position of the surface high/ridge ba

[Radiating Dendrite]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

So it's a case of place your bets for the position of the surface high/ridge ba

 

Let us hope that does end up further north, as that is a Bartlett.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

 

Let us hope that does end up further north, as that is a Bartlett.

Well it isn’t …. The gefs is not  far away but centred too far to the east. The eps  is a sceuro with a mean continental flow 

The eps clusters are split in the extended between a weak easterly surface flow with the ridge far enough north to allow and a more w euro based high 

way too early to choose red or black or a mushy shade in between …..

 

[sebastiaan1973]

De Bilt Plume. A large part at the LT with winds from the east, southeast or northeast (oost, zuidoost and noordoost)

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

De Bilt Plume. A large part at the LT with winds from the east, southeast or northeast (oost, zuidoost and noordoost)

There’s quite a cluster from the East towards North east there which is good to see. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly goodluck to those who get snow today,could be quite a fair amount in places and more especially with height.

Secondly plenty of nice looking options moving forward with the 0z ens..A colder pattern looks a growing trend perhaps towards the holiday period. Still some uncertainty regarding where these Heights will be purely focused,but we remain in the game.

And thirdly....batten down the hatches...if youve got a wig,then get the Bostik out,you don't want it blowing down the high street..

Edited December 7, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[johnholmes]

Tuesday 7 December 2021

so 6 days later any indication of a marked change at 500 mb?

Ec=well I can see a change but no signal for any marked ridging anywhere near the uk!

Just a fairly mobile w’ly nto the rounded main trough approx 40-50 w then w’ly way into Europe, with cut off low over greece

Noaa=Neither does this model suggest anything +ve for anyone wanting a cold blast be it from the north or any other direction. Not totally different from EC with the trough further east and the ridging from 6 days ago even further north and a fairly slack flow into Europe, stronger w’ly for n uk than the south and the 8-14 even shows a small +ve area over western Europe, so no cold in sight on this

What happens after 14 days is, as always with these charts, beyond their scope. But I would not put money on a white Christmas!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Tuesday 7 December 2021

so 6 days later any indication of a marked change at 500 mb?

Ec=well I can see a change but no signal for any marked ridging anywhere near the uk!

Just a fairly mobile w’ly nto the rounded main trough approx 40-50 w then w’ly way into Europe, with cut off low over greece

Noaa=Neither does this model suggest anything +ve for anyone wanting a cold blast be it from the north or any other direction. Not totally different from EC with the trough further east and the ridging from 6 days ago even further north and a fairly slack flow into Europe, stronger w’ly for n uk than the south and the 8-14 even shows a small +ve area over western Europe, so no cold in sight on this

What happens after 14 days is, as always with these charts, beyond their scope. But I would not put money on a white Christmas!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

Youve just killed the Hope of a nation John...No white Xmas....im in ruddy tears here

[johnholmes]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Youve just killed the Hope of a nation John...No white Xmas....im in ruddy tears here

sorry about that Matt, feeling a bit peed off with no central heating and wondering if the promise from Br Gas to come and sort it will be today. Got nearly as many clothes on as I would being outside!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

sorry about that Matt, feeling a bit peed off with no central heating and wondering if the promise from Br Gas to come and sort it will be today. Got nearly as many clothes on as I would being outside!

It's OK John,I'm gonna have to tell the kids it's a snow making machine or nothing this year

Hope you get that  heating sorted pronto....dont let them mess you about...keep warm good man,and thanks for your noaa updates..

Edited December 7, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[johnholmes]

14 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

It's OK John,I'm gonna have to tell the kids it's a snow making machine or nothing this year

Hope you get that  heating sorted pronto....dont let them mess you about...keep warm good man,and thanks for your noaa updates..

cheers Matt, the weather can and does spring surprises on us all, amateur and professional, so live in hope.

Last week, as well as the good prediction of the damage the storm was likely to cause, UK Met made hardly any mention until it happened to pretty much every road between Derbyshire and Yorkshire to the Manchester area being blocked with snow. Some of the web cams, if they were able to operate with the wind and snow having fetched a fair number of power lines down showed roads blocked for 3-4 days, with drifts over 10-12 ft high.

 

never say never with the weather!

[Don]

1 hour ago, Staffmoorlands said:

There is no guarantee that the weather will be any colder at the end of December or January.  The Met Office are going with a mild Christmas at the moment but dry.

Of course there is no guarantee, I don't think anyone has suggested that?

[Ali1977]

PV is much less organised by day 9 on this run.

[Staffmoorlands]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

PV is much less organised by day 9 on this run.

A classic Bartlett high developing there

 

[Eskimo]

3 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

A classic Bartlett high developing there

 

Don't mention the 'B' word around these parts. 

[NewEra21]

There's no escaping that the high will initially turn things mild. What we have to hope and look for is the high moving further north with time and gradually becoming colder.

Obviously there's no guarantee the high will move northwards and we could become stuck under a classic Bartlett. But it's one step at at time imo. Charts won't look pretty for a while.

[Ali1977]

Well we have an easterly by day 11/12 and there’s some chillier air associated with it over on the continent 

[ICE COLD]

Well looks like we are definitely heading for a blocked 2nd half of December and possibly beyond . When you have charts coming out like this your always going to be in the game . 

Not your standard December chart. 
 

GFS 6z 

[Ali1977]

The colder uppers are developing too

[mountain shadow]

I think we would all bank a +1045mb Scandi High for the start of Christmas week..

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

The colder uppers are developing too

Just a word of caution on the GFS, it's much quicker with the MJO progression across the Pacific than the ECM, so it may be showing these charts a few days too early, on the other hand it may be leading the way!

Nice northern adjustment on the 06z

[Scandinavian High.]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The colder uppers are developing too

Will that cold air heading for south east England be cold enough for any snow. I