Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[TSNWK]

On 29/11/2021 at 16:16, Allseasons-si said:

Brutal cold to the NE on the UKMO 144...

Which adds to the frustration last year it was great synoptic wise to bring in cold air but there was little to tap into.  This year it's brutal cold and we cannot alight synoptic wise... According to recent GFS runs 

[frosty ground]

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

GFS is obviously poor with the ICON being dragged out. And indeed it is..

Plenty of discussion of other models.

[Ice Day]

Comparing UKMO and GFS at 120 shows FI kicks in around 96hr. Clearly there's some complexity around our part of the hemisphere at the moment!

 

[Kasim Awan]

Red needs to be highest pressure as possible and blue as easterly as possible. Very rare to have an easterly wind with a high in this section so que the model latency - and ukmo is good at dealing with this. Look how good the icon is for this. 

[Allseasons-Si]

On 29/11/2021 at 16:22, carinthian said:

Yes, quite a marked difference against the latest GFS run. Will it be snow showers on a biting NELy into SE Britain or mizzly and mild ? Real struggle with the models at 96t and beyond. Maybe just look no further than the end of Friday. 

C

 

On 29/11/2021 at 16:23, TSNWK said:

Which adds to the frustration last year it was great synoptic wise to bring in cold air but there was little to tap into.  This year it's brutal cold and we cannot alight synoptic wise... According to recent GFS runs 

Let's hope that the latest UKMO is correct but i suspect there will be more chopping and changing up to then

the gfs at 120 is not dropping that trough from Iceland through the UK like the UKMO is showing...

let's see where the gfs goes on this run.

[TSNWK]

On 29/11/2021 at 16:22, carinthian said:

Yes, quite a marked difference against the latest GFS run. Will it be snow showers on a biting NELy into SE Britain or mizzly and mild ? Real struggle with the models at 96t and beyond. Maybe just look no further than the end of Friday. 

C

Where's the money! UK 144 or GFS.  For some reason I have a view that uk144 is not to be trusted...

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Where's the money! UK 144 or GFS.  For some reason I have a view that uk144 is not to be trusted...

Last year the UKMO seemed a bit flakey at 144 (I believe backed up by the stats).  Not sure how it's performing at the moment though?

[northwestsnow]

Long live the Euro troughing !!

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Last year the UKMO seemed a bit flakey at 144 (I believe backed up by the stats).  Not sure how it's performing at the moment though?

It does seem like it's 144 output is erratic sometimes,

However the divergence happens at 120 with low from Iceland, as Steve M used to say, you'd back the ukmo all day long at day 5 over the GFS 

[TSNWK]

Oh go on then GFS I'm in for another day 10 day chase

[sheikhy]

Think we gona have a good ecm tonight!!!gfs just cant work out what to do right now which is usually the case in these types of situations!!

[tight isobar]

Knocking the American model is fraught, it picks up signals and throws them out of the pram like a spoilt kid does toys:  It has a 4 run circular suite per day(if ya like) with the highest time frame output!, and was the 1st to note a n/e heights signal!.. and was also the 1st of today @00z suite to pick up the demise of what it teased @ ramping energy around Greenland!.. so as a suite to suite run.. and with far more time pressing.. let’s not knock it just yet!!.. because my bet now, after viewing the other sets .. is maybe the initial signal was correct- or there about. @ Scandinavia heights of some sort!.. and we may end up with note of others that lagged.. when we get to a point of modelling agreement!!!,, keep ya eye on the gfs.. for those n/e heights.. and other ops  pupping along!!..(behind) over to the 18z for me!!@ model divergence!

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,lots of uncertainty as early as 96 hrs local weather girl on bbc tv would not put up Friday chart

due to uncertainty,so not sure why so much uncertainty in short time spell may be someone can enlighten 

why .

[Allseasons-Si]

The GEM is dropping a shallow low NW-SE at 114,...possible snow event on it's northern flank.

[Battleground Snow]

Looks like the gem may be following the ukmo route here with the low over the UK at 114.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Looks like the gem may be following the ukmo route here with the low over the UK at 114.

Yup i think we should expect sudden changes in the 3 to 4 day range!similar to that wtf moment in 2013 i reckon!!!i think we also should not over look the fact there could be more snow for a few of us again this week!!

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The GEM is dropping a shallow low NW-SE at 114,...possible snow event on it's northern flank.

I was too slow

UKMO v gem at 120

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I was too slow

UKMO v gem at 120

Talk about identical!!!

[Kasim Awan]

I'm quite confident that the gfs could be the wrongun here. Look at what it was forecasting in Jan 2009 for the Feb 2009 mini beast. The gfs has obviously changed quite a bit since then but the overall model infrastructure is still the same.

[northwestsnow]

168 ukmo

[Allseasons-Si]

The GEM has RAIDED the UK met office,...they are uncannily V similar at 120

the gfs had lost the plot early on it's run but will it be right...?

 

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 16:52, Kasim Awan said:

I'm quite confident that the gfs could be the wrongun here. Look at what it was forecasting in Jan 2009 for the Feb 2009 mini beast. The gfs has obviously changed quite a bit since then but the overall model infrastructure is still the same.

There’s a preety big di in data input since then!- we’ll soon see but for me it’s the signal man.. and I think we’ll see more solidity from its “now frowned up prognosis “- previous @ Scandinavia heights!! I’m sticking with it- for that road back .. and the rest to follow!!!

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

168 ukmo

snow event down the spine!!let the battle commence!!

[TSNWK]

On 29/11/2021 at 16:55, northwestsnow said:

168 ukmo

I defo prefer metoecil.. that 168 looks as it trough disruption is being touted ?

[northwestsnow]

Sorry I was rushed ...

GFS 12Z 168

UKMO 168