Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Bradley in Kent]

On 29/11/2021 at 13:00, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

After this Thursday / Friday's brief cold incursion the models all seem to be in agreement in the medium term of a much more familiar winter pattern for the UK, Azores high firmly ensconced to our SW, any high pressure to E / NE locked away over Russia, large low pressure systems being spun up to our NW, and being driven eastwards by a strong flat jet. In my experience once this pattern takes hold (as the models are currently suggesting that it will) then it can take quite a while to break free from it, and whilst I don't want to be Mr Gloomy (from a cold perspective) it wouldn't surprise me at all if we're soon in the 'lets see what the New Year brings' mode of model watching...........

Azores High is a winter ruiner, shortly followed by Labrador based PV. Together they're like a whirlpool; as soon as you start to drift towards it, it gets harder and harder to get away from it, and once you cross a certain threshold, you're falling in and nothing will rescue you from it's dark and whirly depths! (like 2013/14 or 2019/20)

When models hint at this, it's the equivalent to seeing the whirlpool but still safe. That's where we are now, with lower heights currently over the Med with opportunity to avoid said whirlpool. However, if models continue to hint at the Azores High / Labrador PV, we'll get nearer and nearer until we're helplessly falling into the pattern writing off the remainder of the year and possibly the first half of winter...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 hours ago, Beanz said:

I think the MetO are a bit wiser than that. 

Yep,I let my heart rule my head yet again. Even though I've stated many a times on here how I think the GFS is a complete waste of time(especially the op and control runs,I find myself being sucked into my own hype!

There was never cross model agreement regarding all the ens etc..we had a dodgy EC46 also,so i was always apprehensive..

The way forward looks rather mixed....often cold in the North,milder at times further South,if this colder air digs further south at times we could still get a few wintry suprises.

Regarding Height rises to the NE right now...very unlikely....and regarding Height rises to the NW...less likely...far too much energy in that neck of the woods right now...hopefully we see a shift further along the line.

Mogreps ens probably highlight those at times coldish temps....so at least feeling a bit more seasonal at times.

Now I need  a year out to recover from the 1st failed cold chase....I did warn last week that there will be many of em to come this winter!

So cold crew don't be ashamed,we got it wrong...join me at Mattcoldcamp.com.uk I'm here for the duration and I'm ready to listen to your ramps and concerns...we treat everyone equal here....even those mild fanatics get a chance

[Methuselah]

After many letdowns and mood swings, I've decided not to post any model stuff before the ensembles come along. The operational run suggests a waxing-waning Siberian/Scandinavian anticyclone and a slightly displaced Azores job. Between which, we remain in an unsettled, rather cold northwesterly regime. But for how long will it last?

    

    

    

Well, according to the GFS 06Z operational run -- not very long; predicted developments away to our northwest don't look too favourable? So, to the ensembles:

    

Pretty good out to Day 5 or six; next to useless after that. And, IMO, the signal for an outbreak of Siberian/Scandinavian air was never more than weak, anyway? Models and humans have 'options'. But the weather won't be listening?

[Dennis]

24 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Low amplitude 6/7 id say ideally we want mid amplitude minimum to have an impact on the jet waves but out of the COD is good, the wedges we see atm is not in anyway linked, the wedges are primed because of the angle of the jet, the deep cold building and the position of the vortex pieces 

Im setting myself up for a fall here by the pros please correct if wrong 

@Severe Siberian icy blast im hopefull  and see more ideas into the early winterdays 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Dennis

[Climate Man]

39 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yep,I let my heart rule my head yet again. Even though I've stated many a times on here how I think the GFS is a complete waste of time(especially the op and control runs,I find myself being sucked into my own hype!

There was never cross model agreement regarding all the ens etc..we had a dodgy EC46 also,so i was always apprehensive..

The way forward looks rather mixed....often cold in the North,milder at times further South,if this colder air digs further south at times we could still get a few wintry suprises.

Regarding Height rises to the NE right now...very unlikely....and regarding Height rises to the NW...less likely...far too much energy in that neck of the woods right now...hopefully we see a shift further along the line.

Mogreps ens probably highlight those at times coldish temps....so at least feeling a bit more seasonal at times.

Now I need  a year out to recover from the 1st failed cold chase....I did warn last week that there will be many of em to come this winter!

So cold crew don't be ashamed,we got it wrong...join me at Mattcoldcamp.com.uk I'm here for the duration and I'm ready to listen to your ramps and concerns...we treat everyone equal here....even those mild fanatics get a chance

Is it wrong though? Not happened yet. It's a bit like the new fad of cancelled flights when it is forecast to snow rather than when it does.  Invariably the snow does not arrive..

[swfc]

Did say Sat - Sun to hang your revs and keep your powder dry until mid week. The waxing and waininng are evident on the nhp plus the PV to the nnw is up and down like a fiddlers elbow. Give it 3-4 days see how the land lyes. Nw to se is the form horse with "northwestsnow" wedges being favourite . Not enough amplification for much more but glacier point used to say that's all you need. Uto

Edited November 29, 2021 by swfc

[swfc]

On 29/11/2021 at 13:28, Ed Stone said:

After many letdowns and mood swings, I've decided not to post any model stuff before the ensembles come along. The operational run suggests a waxing-waning Siberian/Scandinavian anticyclone and a slightly displaced Azores job. Between which, we remain in an unsettled, rather cold northwesterly regime. But for how long will it last?

    

    

    

Well, according to the GFS 06Z operational run -- not very long; predicted developments away to our northwest don't look too favourable? So, to the ensembles:

    

Pretty good out to Day 5 or six; next to useless after that. And, IMO, the signal for an outbreak of Siberian/Scandinavian air was never more than weak, anyway? Models and humans have 'options'. But the weather won't be listening?

Hang on to your sanity Ed

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yep,I let my heart rule my head yet again. Even though I've stated many a times on here how I think the GFS is a complete waste of time(especially the op and control runs,I find myself being sucked into my own hype!

There was never cross model agreement regarding all the ens etc..we had a dodgy EC46 also,so i was always apprehensive..

The way forward looks rather mixed....often cold in the North,milder at times further South,if this colder air digs further south at times we could still get a few wintry suprises.

Regarding Height rises to the NE right now...very unlikely....and regarding Height rises to the NW...less likely...far too much energy in that neck of the woods right now...hopefully we see a shift further along the line.

Mogreps ens probably highlight those at times coldish temps....so at least feeling a bit more seasonal at times.

Now I need  a year out to recover from the 1st failed cold chase....I did warn last week that there will be many of em to come this winter!

So cold crew don't be ashamed,we got it wrong...join me at Mattcoldcamp.com.uk I'm here for the duration and I'm ready to listen to your ramps and concerns...we treat everyone equal here....even those mild fanatics get a chance

It hasnt failed yet Matt this UKMO chart would be a pretty special position for week one of winter  Scandi highs always have been the hardest for models to get a consistent signal for, I wouldn't rule out it being a bigger influence than some of the less blocky runs suggest 

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO op, both runs yesterday.

You couldn’t tell how sustainable they were from those runs 

[Frostbite1980]

56 minutes ago, Dennis said:

@Severe Siberian icy blast im hopefull  and see more ideas into the early winterdays 

That looks quite promising, although last year promised similar only to drop the signal nearer the time. Lets hope there is not a repeat this year, we can do with all the help we can get when living on this little island  

[Cold Winter Night]

Very strange reading all the posts this morning after I first checked the output.

"Scandi High has disappeared", "Easterly is gone", "Downgrade", "GFS led us down the garden path again" and some even denying that a Scandi High or Easterlies were in the model output at all.

And I'm like:

Because I don't really see much difference compared to yesterday.
It's chaotic, messy and unclear where we're heading and it will be thus for a while.

Regarding the Scandi height rises, they're still there.
Let's be clear: there was not a mature powerful Scandi High in this weekend's output, just something between a wedge and the early development stage of a proper Scandi High, and it's still there, on GFS Op and GEFS, EC Op and EPS.

EPS clusters 192h-240h (FI already) all have at least some heights to the North or Northeast by the way:

Further out I think is way too uncertain now to discuss seriously, but Ural heights seem prominent still.

And, regarding Easterlies, despite the fact that we never saw a mature Scandi High, here in Holland, in De Bilt, we can see that at Days 6-8 winds from the NE-E-SE are the majority. Afterwards they're still there.

Now, perhaps they don't all make it to the UK and they don't bring a 1947-style winter, but still, saying that there were no Easterlies in the output and that they're now gone completely could not be farther from the truth.

A Scandi High does not guarantee an Easterly and an Easterly does not guarantee cold, and cold does not guarantee snow. It takes many steps to get to where coldies want to be, but step 1 (Scandi High formation) is still on the table.

Lastly the regimes from the EPS 0z. They really show that we're going towards an uncertain setup.

Not pronounced, scattered, both near NAO neutral and BLO neutral. Any firm claim about where this will end up is foolish, although we do seem to remain at the cooler/colder side.

I personally think we will see more developments the Northeast later on in December.

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Hatewarmth said:

Your exactly right.  This is what’s been going through my head this morning.  
 

To much doom and gloom on here given the positive signals AND positive start to the season.  We not even in December yet

Doom and gloom probably because it's a Monday!

[fromey]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Doom and gloom probably because it's a Monday!

I’m waiting for the winter is over posts to start next!! 

[damianslaw]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

I’m waiting for the winter is over posts to start next!! 

Oh gosh yes usually one appears on 1 December. Cold and unsettled I'd the predominant theme for early December nothing especially mild. Jet aligned NW-SE we are not staring at a powerhouse zonal onslaught of the Atlantic.. indeed we haven't all 2021!

[TSNWK]

On 29/11/2021 at 14:47, damianslaw said:

Oh gosh yes usually one appears on 1 December. Cold and unsettled I'd the predominant theme for early December nothing especially mild. Jet aligned NW-SE we are not staring at a powerhouse zonal onslaught of the Atlantic.. indeed we haven't all 2021!

1st December ! Last year I recall a deadly serious message that WOI during October… 

[northwestsnow]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You couldn’t tell how sustainable they were from those runs 

Yes, the 12z EU ukmo yesterday was dreadful at 168...

Anyway, clearly the GFS has now trended away from scandy heights ..

As the snow begins to melt another chase begins , Fwiw,and IMO  ,those away from altitude in the North are looking mid month and beyond for the next opportunity. 

We know there is little likelihood of high latitude blocking anytime soon ,but with the Euro low we can perhaps anticipate wedges of heights(GIN sea would be perfect) directing traffic ...

 

 

[TSNWK]

On 29/11/2021 at 15:07, northwestsnow said:

Yes, the 12z EU ukmo yesterday was dreadful at 168...

Anyway, clearly the GFS has now trended away from scandy heights ..

As the snow begins to melt another chase begins , Fwiw,and IMO  ,those away from altitude in the North are looking mid month and beyond for the next opportunity. 

We know there is little likelihood of high latitude blocking anytime soon ,but with the Euro low we can perhaps anticipate wedges of heights(GIN sea would be perfect) directing traffic ...

 

 

What about us in the southern lowlands;) who so desperately needed that scandi option as wedges from a low euro heights is rather challenging…

[swfc]

On 29/11/2021 at 15:17, TSNWK said:

What about us in the southern lowlands;) who so desperately needed that scandi option as wedges from a low euro heights is rather challenging…

Well if the synoptics don't allow itwhat can you do  tbh. Said before there's always Scandinavia or svalbard

[Ali1977]

Day 8 on the ICON showing some kind of  Scandy high attempt !! 

Personally I think all the signal and forecasts haven’t got a clue this year - anything could happen 10 days out!! I’d hazard a guess and no big freeze because that’s generally the norm !! 

[Allseasons-Si]

The first out of the blocks is the ICON and it looks spiffing to me and would get the cold in from the east after 180

animated 93-180...

Edit: @Ali1977 just pipped me there,...i must be quicker ha ha

Edited November 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can't help but think at times that we have so much data and knowledge available to us in these days......that we seem to over complicate things by stating we need numerous favourable sypnotics in our favour! And we can get lost within this data to the point we can easily Start to downplay any favourable circumstances!

Remember the good old days,especially the more middle aged and older folks on here...The Beeb would say we have a cold snap on the way!! Could be snow!! No dramas no stress,and more often than not it would come off! Now with all the info and expertise some of us have,we instantly start looking for the cracks to appear for it to go wrong!

I think this is the main factor that drives many of us up the walls....especially when we are desperate for a certain outcome!

I balme meteociel and the like for giving us far to much power!

Seriously we need the good old countryfile forecast back when Bill Giles and the likes used to deliver the goods!

Beyond that,it's probably best we enter this model watching lark with a very open mind....and be prepared for the worse kind of outcomes,and basically be able to take it on the chin.

[Allseasons-Si]

On 29/11/2021 at 14:39, fromey said:

I’m waiting for the winter is over posts to start next!! 

You hit the IGNORE button if they do

[northwestsnow]

ICON looks wedgy !! 

We like wedges

Fascinating model watching right now...

 

[swfc]

On 29/11/2021 at 15:40, northwestsnow said:

ICON looks wedgy !! 

We like wedges

Fascinating model watching right now...

 

You got issues man

[northwestsnow]

Just now, swfc said:

You got issues man

Yes, I'm a cold zealot