Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[damianslaw]

11 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Just looking through the ensembles out to 174 and only really 1/3 of them support the OP, I think it's a very delicate situation with how flimsy the heights are around day 6.

Control attached

From observation..  certainty of a scandi high forming is quite a shorter timescale to a Greenland high.. about 96 hrs.. they are more common than the latter but importantly not reliant on a weak PV.. they can set up more quickly from wedges and NW-SE aligned jet flows which is the synoptic we are forecast for much of the coming week. We may end up with some form of weak build of heights but not quite strong enough to fend off the Atlantic but enough influence to send energy SE into Europe which is very important as this will prevent the azores high from gaining any foothold further east and becoming a euro high. 

[tight isobar]

A close eye this morning-@ to the NW @ Greenland- as energy mounts.. and it’s a case of aiding heights to Scandinavia, or perhaps squeezing them out.. we’ll see how we ride!         Edit :-interesting- as the Canadian lobe starts separation!

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[Battleground Snow]

Scandi heights look even more fragile on the overnight runs, still a good build up of cold to the north east, .

UKMO and GFS at 144 attached

Edited November 29, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 04:15, Battleground Snow said:

Scandi heights look even more fragile on the overnight runs, still a good build up of cold to the north east, .

UKMO and GFS at 144 attached

The ukmo to me is an actual upgrade of sorts this morning @144hrs

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

Gfs causing big problems here!- the next 3/4 frames will reveal!

[tight isobar]

Annnddd that’s that the 00z cancels the easterly abruptly!! The Canadian seperation makes it all but impossible!!!!-!!!! A horror show trend this morning!, it’s either making to much of energy separating, or the easterly is as dead as a do do Already!!!!

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

@compare.. is worlds apart from 1- suite to the other, @ 850 for conpare @ 18z-00z 

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 29/11/2021 at 04:32, tight isobar said:

@compare.. is worlds apart from 1- suite to the other, @ 850 for conpare @ 18z-00z 

E’lys are fragile model projections. Never believe until <96 hrs. 

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 04:34, CreweCold said:

E’lys are fragile model projections. Never believe until <96 hrs. 

cc , and the run @ooz looks way out of kilter with its shenanigans @- around point Greenland - but I fear a new signal for shutting the door of an heights arm raised towards Scandinavia!!. We’ll probably see the ec.. flag us a BOOM in a while!- but we know as ya say the fragility of a craved easterly.. alls not lost but let’s hope as said.. is a mere wobble

[tight isobar]

I’m dumping this run - yes by my cold bias.. but also because it’s an- all round massive change!!.. if the ecm goes the same.. then I’m afraid we’re v- likely bk to the drawing board!!! This game ay

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[Wold Topper]

Half 4 in the morning, i'll give u guys 10 out of 10 for your dedication to the models

[Mucka]

 

What GFS was modelling as 970mb low it has slowly deepened to 955mb low which dooms the Atlantic ridge.

UKMO also ramps up the Atlantic but better aligned ridge to NE and consequent trough disruption through the UK is better ahead of it so the Atlantic ridge is a little stronger. 

Either better alignment and stronger ridge to our NE with sharper trough disruption further W or less energy and more amplification upstream through days 4/5 or preferably all of those will suit cold lovers.

 

Looks like it could go either way. 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Mucka

[Battleground Snow]

168 UKMO isn't much better than the GFS, too much energy coming from the north west

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 04:52, Mucka said:

 

What GFS was modelling as 970mb low it has slowly deepened to 955mb low which dooms the Atlantic ridge.

UKMO also ramps up the Atlantic but better aligned ridge and consequent trough disruption through the UK is better

 

Looks like it could go either way. 

- the way it looks by today’s 12z.. is the way it’s gonna be- @ easterly gate!!

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

- the way it looks by today’s 12z.. is the way it’s gonna be- @ easterly gate!!

I'll be tossing a coin instead. 

[tight isobar]

The bearer of doom! But the Canadian going same way

[tight isobar]

Such a rapid and dramatic loss of signal.. says it all Really!!@ Scandinavia heights

[tight isobar]

And the ens on the 00z preety much sum-it up I’m afraid! .. no easterly - and trending less cold into December  !! Ciao ?

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[iceman1991]

Roller coaster continues

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

28 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And the ens on the 00z preety much sum-it up I’m afraid! .. no easterly - and trending less cold into December  !! Ciao ?

Yet you also big up the easterly readily when one runs shows this!? 

The signal remains, a build of severe cold to the east, particularly for this time of year you have to look at the synoptics in awe really... 

The 0z runs I don't know the science behind this but for the last few years iv noticed seem to be the worst(or best depending on how you look at it!) run of the day.  

Scandinavian highs are notoriously hard to handle, managing the power of the Atlantic, understanding how the energy splits as it hits the cold air, iv saw things completly change in the models inside t96 when dealing with wedges, who remembers the sudden cold of January 2013? In that case it was the deep cold over scandi and a quick reaction to the SSW, however its the wedges of high and the cold air that's hard for the models, and it's just a different variation of what MAY happen although unlikely imo. 

[TSNWK]

ECM trump's the lot? Never really went with the Easterly did it 

 

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 06:01, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Yet you also big up the easterly readily when one runs shows this!? 

The signal remains, a build of severe cold to the east, particularly for this time of year you have to look at the synoptics in awe really... 

The 0z runs I don't know the science behind this but for the last few years iv noticed seem to be the worst(or best depending on how you look at it!) run of the day.  

Scandinavian highs are notoriously hard to handle, managing the power of the Atlantic, understanding how the energy splits as it hits the cold air, iv saw things completly change in the models inside t96 when dealing with wedges, who remembers the sudden cold of January 2013? In that case it was the deep cold over scandi and a quick reaction to the SSW, however its the wedges of high and the cold air that's hard for the models, and it's just a different variation of what MAY happen although unlikely imo. 

If you read my analysis- correct @in reply to @CreweCold, you’ll note I’ve said still possible but unlikely now, pretty much what you’ve quoted !. And  certainly don’t need telling that an easterly is as rare as proverbial “hens teeth “ I bigged it up because all raws- and even some ensembles were indeed firing up in it... anyway it looks a false dawn , as preety much usually @easterly, I’d still not be surprised however on a sniff back at it.. in immediate suites.

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

If you read my analysis- correct @in reply to @CreweCold, you’ll note I’ve said still possible but unlikely now, pretty much what you’ve quoted !. And  certainly don’t need telling that an easterly is as rare as proverbial “hens teeth “ I bigged it up because all raws- and even some ensembles were indeed firing up in it... anyway it looks a false dawn , as preety much usually @easterly, I’d still not be surprised however on a sniff back at it.. in immediate suites.u

But my point to you is what makes the run anymore valid than the last? 

The ensembles are as fickle as a prostitutes nighty we know this lol

[TSNWK]

On 29/11/2021 at 06:13, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

But my point to you is what makes the run anymore valid than the last? 

The ensembles are as fickle as a prostitutes nighty we know this lol

But ecm never bought it.  

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 06:13, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

But my point to you is what makes the run anymore valid than the last? 

The ensembles are as fickle as a prostitutes nighty we know this lol

The gfs wasn’t 1 run in the easterly it’s been chucking g out Scandinavia heights suite- after suite @ solidly... that why I started to get my head up.. let’s just see where all suites/>sets go today?!

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar