Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,very difficult to take serious any charts past 144 hrs /168 hrs but encouraging to see all

agree on Scandinavian high pressure with some very cold air entrenched with it.Need to be a little patient 

next 48 hrs will show us the way,ie cold/ very cold and a Met office turn around.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, mbrothers said:

But we are discussing what the models are showing now

 

and if you look at 240 on the ECM you will see my point.

[Notty]

4 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

With the greatest respect its also not about blind hope-casting. Maybe the Met with their supercomputers have got this wrong, but I would back them every time against a bunch of amateurs on a weather forum. I'm not having a go here, but the constant emotional rollercoaster on here can get quite tiresome at times.

We don’t have to ride the roller coaster of course - we can always go on the tea-cups. Off topic I know but this forum does help get through the winter  I am sat at the front with my arms in the air waiting for every twist and turn - whatever the outcome. Roll on 1947  

[Alexis]

12 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

I realise that. As things stand however there is not a single model I've seen this evening that has the cold air in Europe prevailing over the westerly pressure from the atlantic. This may change of course, but for me the most likely scenarios is either for the high pressure to buckle, or for the UK to be in a col with the low stalling to the W/SW of the BIs.

Isn't that simply predicting what will happen next? How is that different from anyone else predicting cold air winning over the Atlantic?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

With the greatest respect its also not about blind hope-casting. Maybe the Met with their supercomputers have got this wrong, but I would back them every time against a bunch of amateurs on a weather forum. I'm not having a go here, but the constant emotional rollercoaster on here can get quite tiresome at times.

Blind hope casting??

We are giving a run down on what the latest models are hinting at...I've also spoken with more than one very knowledgeable person who think the signs look good!

Exter have been known to backdown! And if those super computers are so great...can you tell me what on earth happened to the failed 2019 really cold winter!

I will tell you what happened! The big boys got it wrong....we all get in wrong...whether amateurs or professionals!

To call it hopecasting is a little harsh to some of the very technical posters that Grace this forum.

As anyone else noticed!! We ain't even got this 2nd cold blast in yet,and some are already pointing out how it will go wrong if it does

Get the snow in first and the cold will follow

Edited November 28, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Mapantz]

Back to model discussion..

If you want to chat about other stuff, do so here

Any more, and posts will be moved.

Thanks.

Just to add; If you have an issue with a post, use the report button, don't reply and derail the thread even further.

Edited November 28, 2021 by Mapantz

[nick sussex]

The ECM is all over the place . Not its finest hour given the huge differences between each run .

It still looks a bit messy with some shortwave energy phasing between day 6 and 7 which coldies could do without but at least it’s moving in the right direction .

It could with a westwards correction and a sharper upstream trough but given its 00hrs run at least it hasn’t repeated that horrid run .

Edited November 28, 2021 by nick sussex

[Mike Poole]

Interesting day on the model watching front, for sure.

ECM and GEM edging towards UKMO and GFS who not just hold their line, but reinforce it.  Scandi high will be nailed on tomorrow 0z, I think.  So where does that leave us 3 days away from winter (it is actually snowing outside here right now!).  I have always been struck on the run into winter by the consistent meridional jet, as I have often posted, it has been here since last winter, right through summer, same thing happened in 2010.  

And here we are in the last week of November and it has just turned freezing cold.  History repeating? Too early to tell, I don’t think it will be quite like 2010, but if the high that calls the shots of a multi-blocking pattern* does set up, is over Scandi this time, it might be much snowier for the south than 2010 was.  How important that cold pool to our east might be this year!!

*2010 was a major, repeat major, Greenland high.  In the south it was freezing but snowless down south until I think the week before Christmas.

We are I think one or two suites of model runs off confirming the start of a cold spell proper, whether it will match or even surpass 2010 remains to be seen, but these patterns don’t come along often so enjoy it if it happens…

Edited November 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[ANYWEATHER]

The Ecm, is not perfect but it's moved it's way to the Gfs , it's much better this Evening than this morning, this morning where it showed no Scandinavian blocking, tonight it's back there

[LRD]

22 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

With the greatest respect its also not about blind hope-casting. Maybe the Met with their supercomputers have got this wrong, but I would back them every time against a bunch of amateurs on a weather forum. I'm not having a go here, but the constant emotional rollercoaster on here can get quite tiresome at times.

And, also with the greatest respect, if the 'emotional rollercoaster' winds you up so much, well, no one is forcing you to be here. Besides I've not seen anyone go overboard with emotion. Just model comments that is, inevitably, tinged with bias for weather preferences. We're amateurs, as you say, so we're allowed to be biased - whether that is mild or cold

Of course the Met O not buying into this (yet) isn't good if you want cold (and I'm never convinced of anything until they're on board... but even they get things wrong too, sometimes) but this is the model output thread. Not the Met Office forecast thread

Speaking of the Met Office's super computers, they have churned out this for 168

Edited November 28, 2021 by LRD

[Man With Beard]

Well we have a battle on our hands!!

I wouldn't be too harsh on the models. Normally, when the weather is all going one way, it's easy for them. In a Scandi High attempted set up, you have weather going two ways and a collision. No wonder they find it hard to resolve.

Key time to check models is tomorrow or Tuesday, by which time we may see a better picture of how much energy really will come off the Atlantic by next weekend, as a little more energy and the easterly is a total non-starter.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I actually think the ECM has shown closer to what direction we headed.
However,  I’m not keen on any Scandi HP backing west until it’s actually backing west over our shores.!!  
 

 

BFTP

Edited November 28, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

Well then, even the trend-setting, coffee-smelling, option-yielding GFS 12Z does not have unanimous backing for a major assault from the East: 

    

Though it is, of course, better than being whacked around the head with Nigel Farage. I mean a kipper!

[SLEETY]

On 28/11/2021 at 19:20, bumpydogz said:

With the greatest respect its also not about blind hope-casting. Maybe the Met with their supercomputers have got this wrong, but I would back them every time against a bunch of amateurs on a weather forum. I'm not having a go here, but the constant emotional rollercoaster on here can get quite tiresome at times.

But the forecasts from the pros are already changing to a colder outlook,after the afternoon runs.Expect the met be changing their outlook tomorrow,when you have all  the big 3 models hinting at a good chance of weather coming from the East

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The Ecm, is not perfect but it's moved it's way to the Gfs , it's much better this Evening than this morning, this morning where it showed no Scandinavian blocking, tonight it's back there

Was the ECM that wrong this morning and now maybe wrong this evening as it’s moved too much?  Neither are mild

 

BFTP

Edited November 28, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ali1977]

Day 8 EC mean looks similar to the op 

[bumpydogz]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

But the forecasts from the pros are already changing to a colder outlook,after the afternoon runs.Expect the met be changing their outlook tomorrow,when you have all  the big 3 models hinting at a good chance of weather coming from the East

Fair enough, and apologies if I have offended anyone with my comments. As you say, let's give the models and the experts some time to find a consensus. All the best.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters, T120-T168, the key time, and I think the Scandi high scenario is possible for the first 2, nascent Scandi heights indicated by my black pen:

Not the third.  

T192-T240, and I think the model really loses the plot here;

All manner of evolutions, I wouldn’t like to pick one, I think they are all wrong!  T264+

Well the endgame is OK on clusters 1 (22 runs) and especially 2 (17 runs), this is where I think we end up at.  We will see…

Edited November 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[LRD]

ECM 850s ensemble graph remains quite steady. Op run looks fairly representative but I know 850s don't tell the whole story

The mild bumps that were on previous ensemble runs are, currently, being squeezed out by both GFS and ECM ensemble suits. Let's see if that continues and perhaps intensifies over the next few days

[phil nw.]

If you are a Winter lover then you got to be reasonably happy with the trends in current modeling.

The Atlantic jet is currently  angled nw-se which has already brought many of us snow.Inevitably some milder air will encroach briefly around Tuesday as a warm sector of the next low moves down from the north but then a return to a cold quickly  follows. .  

Whether after this we see a full blown Scandinavian high eventually remains to be seen.We often see mid term models disagree on detail working out the energy split and usually the final agreement is often delayed to day 4/5.

Having said that there is certainly plenty of signs of wedges to the north being shown by day 7 on the models which looks enough to split the jet and send some energy south.Look out for slider low pressure into cold air if this trend continues.

Considering the time of year when normally the jet is firing eastwards up across the Atlantic and right across us it is quite unusual to see it hit the buffers and head south east before it can cross the UK.

Plenty of early Winter interest to come by the looks.

[topo]

Probably some of the best runs I have seen since February 2018.

ECM mean is outstanding and the set ups that all the models suggest for the next 10 days are incredible for early December.

This is a classic set up for southern Norway that brings a lot of snow. I have seen similar set ups in late January, February or March but I can't remember something similar during early December

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters, T120-T168, the key time, and I think the Scandi high scenario is possible for the first 2, nascent Scandi heights indicated by my black pen:

Not the third.  

T192-T240, and I think the model really loses the plot here;

All manner of evolutions, I wouldn’t like to pick one, I think they are all wrong!  T264+

Well the endgame is OK on clusters 1 (22 runs) and especially 2 (17 runs), this is where I think we end up at.  We will see…

Thanks Mike. What the vast majority of those images show is that the Azores High is being prevented from forming a Euro High. With low pressure in Europe we will always have a chance of cold, wintry weather in the UK

[That ECM]

On 28/11/2021 at 19:48, bumpydogz said:

Fair enough, and apologies if I have offended anyone with my comments. As you say, let's give the models and the experts some time to find a consensus. All the best.

Never take anyones snow flakes away, they don’t like it. t144 -t192 is key and tbh it’s going to take another 48 hours for that to be firmed up. That’s just 12 more runs and outputs to get through.  

[Cold Winter Night]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters, T120-T168, the key time, and I think the Scandi high scenario is possible for the first 2, nascent Scandi heights indicated by my black pen:

Not the third.  

T192-T240, and I think the model really loses the plot here;

All manner of evolutions, I wouldn’t like to pick one, I think they are all wrong!  T264+

Well the endgame is OK on clusters 1 (22 runs) and especially 2 (17 runs), this is where I think we end up at.  We will see…

The picture is going to be messy for a while yet, I think. So much complexity surrounding height rises NE.

In the 192h-240h frames, the Operational and the Control end up in different clusters again. That shows how much the resolution and detail matter in these scenarios.

That the majority of clusters in FI end up relatively good for coldies, and a little bit better again than this morning, that's a good sign IMO.

Anyway, for people who don't like to ride rollercoasters, this might be the last chance to get off!

[Dennis]

 

thats not often seen last years at a december start