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Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

Blessed Weather

By Blessed Weather
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Hmmm 18z!!!not like the ecm but not as good as 12z!!although heights look stronger across scandi!not sure where this will go...!

Don't worry about the Atlantic sector @sheikhy, the alignment will be better here, allowing a longer draw from the north east

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
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Posted

Up and running ?‍♂️ 18z @ easterly 

D41818F9-684A-49BB-93F6-2976EDC3ABDF.png

F3D2E1D2-3A34-431A-A44F-E3A6BC5D042C.png

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pages Aficionado

pages

Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
Posted
3 minutes ago, pages said:

This might even better than ukmo the core of the cold is further south. Might not get as much shortwave action off Norwegian coast on this one

Here we go at 174 clear to see the effect of the high being positioned better earlier less cold air goes in to North sea equals less weakness. Plus better orientation the supply of cold is keeping coming around the block this time rather than being cut off.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

One things for sure this aint no crappy ecm!looks like it could snow anywhere from wednesday onward!!

gfsnh-1-198.png

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festivalking Experienced

festivalking

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

You beauty gfs!!snow flurries in from the east and pure continental pump into the uk!!if ecm comes on board in the morning we done and dusted!!

Steady eddy plenty of time to go pear shaped!

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
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Posted

I am here but i do like the consistency from the gfs...

gfsnh-1-204.thumb.png.77b28cf88726a51ba6a267b9c6ed2561.png

now can we count it down to 72 hrs without any drama's,...of course not

talking of 72 hours,...we do have another cold shot from the north incoming,...more surprise snowfall maybe?

I LOVE SURPRISES but i will keep this one wrapped up for now...

1359762587_200(2).gif.c6bc79d07bfb0857bbf5c85ceeac8d62.gif

 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Well into the flow now.. and as -Again don’t play to much into the upper airs, as by then we will be drawing from surface cold and everything will be beginning to drop.. now let’s post these works of art below  and the snow chances would be as open as anything @ easterly incur 

666D1305-48FD-4C75-9C71-F9FF12BAD1EE.png

A9C2E986-74B7-44BC-BD8C-6BC9FF1BFB80.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

Well, it looks something like that cat thing is running full pelt at us, on the pub run, T216:

E133DBD7-3806-46D8-851B-DCB050CF7142.thumb.png.5862e151f5f3e28708f46abecda9cc37.png

Miaoww!  But the scandi high is in charge now, so we can relax, surely…

Edited by Mike Poole
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Poetry in viewing banging Synoptics

C07AD54E-0F3C-419F-A21A-B23E037713DA.png

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

18z is cold. Continues the Scandi high dream. No beasterly but certainly something festive for the time of year.

Variation of the Scandi high theme that is..

 

Edited by Snowman.
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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Poetry in viewing banging Synoptics

C07AD54E-0F3C-419F-A21A-B23E037713DA.png

Azores high well and truly displaced to the south west as well 

Edited by Howie
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Beanz Rising Star

Beanz

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
Posted
14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

You beauty gfs!!snow flurries in from the east and pure continental pump into the uk!!if ecm comes on board in the morning we done and dusted!!

I think that’s probably a bit early out of the blocks, Wednesday is probably the time to get excited about things being more certain. 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
On 28/11/2021 at 22:43, Dennis said:

please move that scandiHIGH  @tight isobar

 

No chance pal

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

A final one from me before i turn in

the latest from the cpc are more encouraging with the hp cell migrating west in the EXT'd

610day_03.thumb.gif.4673808b7fc721ca7fdd9cf0c9eed5e8.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.cc02b00b6fbfe10614b7f0562c7e8164.gif

i suspect more of the same as to what we have been viewing/seeing in the outputs for some time,...upper winds from a NW quadrant with troughs dropping NW>SE disrupting against the west Russian/East Europe block,...who will win?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted
8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

A final one from me before i turn in

the latest from the cpc are more encouraging with the hp cell migrating west in the EXT'd

610day_03.thumb.gif.4673808b7fc721ca7fdd9cf0c9eed5e8.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.cc02b00b6fbfe10614b7f0562c7e8164.gif

i suspect more of the same as to what we have been viewing/seeing in the outputs for some time,...upper winds from a NW quadrant with troughs dropping NW>SE disrupting against the west Russian/East Europe block,...who will win?

Small point=not the high cell but the +ve anomaly, they are not the same

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Still no decent evidence that a scandi high as shown by gfs (dog with a bone) will verify …

Let's hope GFS has the right signal ..

Something to hold and deflect an angry Atlantic works for me !!

While the Euro low persists I'm cautiously optimistic...

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
On 28/11/2021 at 23:03, johnholmes said:

Small point=not the high cell but the +ve anomaly, they are not the same

Yes john i should of made it a bit clearer,...they are anomalies,...+ve heights shifting west

that is what i am seeing in the EXT'd.

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo
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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
49 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

My point is that there is something inhibiting the Atlantic, don’t know what!,  has been for nearly a year, if it was ever going to fire up and beat it, it was late Autumn, it hasn’t…so all bets are off if we are comparing to recent years, 2010 the best analogue in my opinion.  

I wonder if the anomalous warmth across the Atlantic is having an affect.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Still no decent evidence that a scandi high as shown by gfs (dog with a bone) will verify …

I know you have access to many weather tools that many on here don't and I have always appreciated the way that you selflessly share them. However, at least the ecm op tonight moved in quite a sizeable way towards some of the gfs ops of the last 48 hours. I think this is notable and should be taken on board. 

ECH1-216 (2).gif

ECH1-240 (3).gif

Edited by blizzard81
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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Still no decent evidence that a scandi high as shown by gfs (dog with a bone) will verify …

Just looking through the ensembles out to 174 and only really 1/3 of them support the OP, I think it's a very delicate situation with how flimsy the heights are around day 6.

Control attached

gensnh-0-1-174 (3).png

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