Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[tight isobar]

And right on cue the ec starts picking the signal Where it goes full run is another story but already looking more aligned for heights moving n/e !!

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 06:20, tight isobar said:

And right on cue the ec starts picking the signal Where it goes full run is another story but already looking more aligned for heights moving n/e !!

Then expands to Greenland within 1 frame we’ll see where she goes- but clear model volatility with directional heights atm!! Due to energy phasing 

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[mountain shadow]

13 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

ECM trump's the lot? Never really went with the Easterly did it 

 

And that's the bottom line.

Just too must energy in the Northern arm and not enough Trough disruption in the Greenland corridor of doom.

[That ECM]

120 JFF , All the big 3 need to agree and you want the met on board. Then have some confidence. Not forgetting the time that all of those boxes were ticked and at T72 a “nailed on easterly” disappeared.  

Watching output is fun and less disappointing if you keep above in mind.   

[Battleground Snow]

ECM now looking the best at 144 haha, just about enough heights to our north east, let's see what 168 produces

Edited November 29, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Battleground Snow]

Not far away from a great chart at 168,  very cold to the north east, , the vortex to the north west isn't as influential on the ECM.

I'll be keeping a close eye on the MJO update later today 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[tight isobar]

While the ecm has now shallow heights at west Greenland- extending into north Scandinavia... there’s a lot to to resolved on this @heights placements > 144 plus...

Edited November 29, 2021 by tight isobar

[nick sussex]

Ironically the ECM is now the best at day 6 with that sharper upstream troughing .

The GFS now has the rounded upstream troughing which will just barrel eastwards .

For newbies you can generally tell the forward momentum by the shape of the trough.

Sharper more dig south means less with some energy heading se.

Overall though the models have taken a large step back in terms of colder potential . 

The ECM still dangles a possible snow event at least temporarily by its day 7 , as it disrupts some energy se with some much colder air to the east this could engage any fronts as the surface flow could pull some of that nw into the UK.

In a nutshell it’s all about the troughing upstream , that’s the marker and the deal breaker .

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Ironically the ECM is now the best at day 6 with that sharper upstream troughing .

The GFS now has the rounded upstream troughing which will just barrel eastwards .

For newbies you can generally tell the forward momentum by the shape of the trough.

Sharper more dig south means less with some energy heading se.

Overall though the models have taken a large step back in terms of colder potential . 

The ECM still dangles a possible snow event at least temporarily by its day 7 , as it disrupts some energy se with some much colder air to the east this could engage any fronts as the surface flow could pull some of that nw into the UK.

In a nutshell it’s all about the troughing upstream , that’s the marker and the deal breaker .

Generally, they get moddled more rounded at range and become more shallow / disrupt as we approach t0, GFS was particularly prone to this in the past, 

The depth of cold over Scandinavia is helping with that surface high,

I am liking the fact that low heights are continuously moddled in Europe 

240 ecm attached... On to the next runs!

[DavidS]

ECM perhaps being more consistent with the theme of a generally NW/SE aligned jet, on the whole keeping things on the cool / occasionally cold side.

[sheikhy]

34 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM now looking the best at 144 haha, just about enough heights to our north east, let's see what 168 produces

Keeep an eye on kink west of norway at 96 hours!!get rid of that we get better ridging earlier on!!also keep an eye on that ble kink east iceland at 144 hours cos thats the reason i think the ecm does not go on to a produceva brilliant run!!a lot needs go right and unfortunately this morning it aint lookin good!!

[Chesil View]

Well it was a nice Sunday sojourn to the land of la la . The models giveth and the models taketh away. Such is the nature of Dynamic atmospheric modelling.  At the range that it was showing it was always touch and go. A hope rather than a certainty It may yet appear again, but when it switches from a potential easterly back towards our normal winter form horse of Atlantic dross  then its normally the Atlantic dross that wins.

One saving grace is that the model volatility with the vortex pulsing between Canada and Siberia may well provide further opportunities. 

Oh and by the way Winter hasn't even officially started yet.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[mountain shadow]

ECM better than I expected but we await the ens to see where this fits. 

Is the deep unusual early bitter cold over Scandinavia causing the models problems?

[northwestsnow]

*looks out of window  to a frozen slowly landscape

Well,I'm going to ignore GFS because it's awful,and it looks like  everything i hate in Dec ,wind and rain.

EC ,while never buying into a block to the NE ,has,seemingly picked a signal for some Atlantic energy disruption 

I'm afraid a Scandy high looks unlikely for the foreseeable...

 

Edited November 29, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Snowboy111]

Well that’s a downgrade to wake up to ! Guess I’ll have to wait 2 weeks to see snow in my trip to Lapland!

[bluearmy]

ec shows a solution which is probably the best coldies can hope for with the Canadian segment being strong and a polar profile that is unlikely to allow a scandi ridge with enough northerly traction to bring CAA to nw Europe. 
 

the wedges which have always seemed the more reasonable outcome given that I didn’t see enough space and time for sufficient WAA to build the upper scandi ridge - still time for change but surely the smallest likely outcome 

interesting that ec op this morning, wants to drive a southerly jet into europe but the Azores ridge has been notable on not wanting to depart the scene and to keep ridging in the general ridge trough upstream pattern. That will likely force the systems just that bit too far north to keep the whole U.K. sustained on the cold side but the Scots could be looking at some time in the fridge if this does verify. (And also some areas of n england in the uncertain (and occasionally white) zone. 
 

it stays more than interesting….. pretty confident we haven’t seen the last of the white stuff and potentially in some qty for the lucky ones ……

Edited November 29, 2021 by bluearmy

[Frigid]

GFS went from showing hints of a scandi high for a few days and then drops the signal entirely. hopefully this is a blip and not a trendsetter

[carinthian]

23 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all from a very snowy Eastern Alps . Just an update with my thoughts following on from my post yesterday morning. Firstly, regarding the little feature forecast for next Friday morning, both GFS/UKMO have a further squeeze westwards on it progress with a limited window of warmer air. The snow models forecast small amounts at this stage but with any transient snow now also further west than shown yesterday. Looking forward at 168t it would seem going by the jet profile below from UKMO extended that it is heading in the same camp as GFS. In fact even looks a more amplified profile than the latest GFS run at the same stage. So are we heading for a Scandinavian High ? Without ECM not really on board there remains the usual doubt , but if we can hit the jackpot for you guys, some serious cold could soon envelop Blighty as Scandinavian Highs are quite rare in December but if in place will deliver special winter weather. I remain again optimistic this morning for you guys from what i can work out.

C

Morning all. Still the snow piles up over here, 35 cm just measured and temp down to -6c ! Just an update  follow on from the above post.  The  extended period UKMO run I been following for Friday morning continues to hold the disturbance even further west this morning with any snow reserved for the Welsh /Irish mountains. This is an correction westwards as the colder air close to Eastern Britain continues to intensify towards the next weekend. So broadly looking at this mornings models, I think there is a good chance or even surprise snowfall events in the making. The ups and downs shown in the operational runs still trying to work out the cold/ milder scenario in the medium/ longer term. However, even in the shorter term there will be many corrections this coming week just as I have highlighted with the chart for Friday below. Cold lover keep the faith. Think UKMO met office updated fax runs may hold the key in the 96h -120 shown later today.

C

[LetItSnow!]

The fact that the ECM now is better for cold and the GFS is now blowing up lows and turning it milder kind of speaks volumes (At least potentially) to me. Could it be it picked the trend correctly and is now wobbling around and overestimating the cold air to our east? Heaven knows the GFS has a tendency of doing this. Models aren't used to the pattern we've got, especially against recent years, that's why this morning's GFS run isn't really concerning me at all to be honest. It will be crucial model watching in the next couple of days to see what happens. Still not buying a westerly dominated pattern just yet, but if in a few days all runs show this then we may have to bite the bullet.

One interesting thing I've noticed is that even the runs that want to back the winds into the west seem to be more Artic sourced air with a southerly tracking jet stream. This is very similar to December, 1978 which a lot of people forget was exceptionally wet and never overly cold until after Christmas. Combine that with a very similar autumn and interest does grow in me! I remain positive!

Edited November 29, 2021 by LetItSnow!

[Hotspur62]

As many already stated looks like the touted easterly(mainly from gfs) is on very shaky ground after this mornings runs.That said latest ECM still gives us a possible Northerly in about a weeks time.Maybe that’s why MET office never changed wording in daily forecasts and think next 10 days will have cooler shots amongst milder spells,pretty much as they anticipate.Still a great start to winter/late autumn though after last weekend

[northwestsnow]

For those disappointed please read Blue army's post ..

The Scandy block was almost certainly a GFS illusion.

The pressure profile at Northerly latitudes is poor for coldies like us sat at mid latitudes...

Looking at the EC however, there are acorns 

Start of the run 

By the end of the run however ,look at the polar profile..

The lighter blue bit is our Luke Skywaker, and the force needs to be  strong( to force the jet into Europe).

 

Edited November 29, 2021 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

Wedges appearing in the mean...

[Beanz]

13 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

So much improved you just couldn't believe it was from the Same model...this situation is now getting serious...now let's place some bets on whether Exeter take it seriously....come on guys...even your own model is hinting at it..

I think the MetO are a bit wiser than that. 

[Ali1977]

Cold looking Dec according to the EC ENS

[blizzard81]

The ecm op is definitely an improvement this morning in the medium term. Look at the day 7 chart from this morning and compare it to yesterday's day 8 and Saturdays day 9 chart.