Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[Man With Beard]

ARPEGE 12Z French view - chances of more snow for eastern areas by the weekend (this is a cumalitive chart)

[Kasim Awan]

Models will be out of their comfort zone atm - given the easterly potential. Especially in the current set up of a Scandi signal developing in a volatile NAO. Last time this happened was 2013  So I suspect big changes & flips are possible. The icon is the first big step.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, I'm a cold zealot

You know the thermostat is locked down in your house

 

I think you are on to something with the wedges thou stick a line NW to SE through the U.K. and if your on the NE side your probably on the colder air depending on where everything sets up.

Could be as close as 0 in Leeds and 6 in Manchester. It has that feel to the setup

[TSNWK]

On 29/11/2021 at 15:48, Kasim Awan said:

Models will be out of their comfort zone atm - given the easterly potential. Especially in the current set up of a Scandi signal developing in a volatile NAO. Last time this happened was 2013  So I suspect big changes & flips are possible. The icon is the first big step.

Wow! That looks a nice chart with undercut being lined up.., now that’s the heart speaking. The head says that little ole icon had no chances against gfs / ukm and euro and mogreps.. 50-1 outsider?

[Allseasons-Si]

On 29/11/2021 at 15:48, Man With Beard said:

ARPEGE 12Z French view - chances of more snow for eastern areas by the weekend (this is a cumalitive chart)

I suspect it wouldn't turn out like that,...what with the mid Pennines having no accumulation?

[Kasim Awan]

6 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Wow! That looks a nice chart with undercut being lined up.., now that’s the heart speaking. The head says that little ole icon had no chances against gfs / ukm and euro and mogreps.. 50-1 outsider?

It's a lovely chart. Icon is still valid output. In this set up an option can go from 50 to 1 to 2 to 1 chance in the space of 2 runs. Not saying it's a guarantee but plenty of scope for that given the ecm and ukmo.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Ali1977]

Maybe a snow event on Thurs as the front runs south!! 
Could upgrade like this last one 

Edited November 29, 2021 by Ali1977

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Maybe a snow event on Thurs as the front runs south!! 
Could upgrade like this last one 

It probably will mate, the set up is ripe for a shortwave slider again.

[Ali1977]

GFS seems to have crashed at T66!! 

[Kasim Awan]

The gfs will massively underdo snow totals from short wave events as per the last one. Euro4 for accumulation and wrf for positioning is a potent combination for accuracy. This would give 5-7cm for a decent stretch of the Midlands / Peaks etc.

[Battleground Snow]

That's not too bad from the ukmo at 144.

We don't need yellows and oranges over scandi, as long as the pressure is high enough to deflect the jet south and have a slack flow coming from the east, snow chances will follow

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

That's not too bad from the ukmo at 144.

We don't need yellows and oranges over scandi, as long as the pressure is high enough to deflect the jet south and have a slack flow coming from the east, snow chances will follow

I will take that right off you mate!thats a nice chart from ukmo!!

[tight isobar]

Gfs @wetter/meteo.. stalled!!

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs @wetter/meteo.. stalled!!

Suppose it's subliminally trying to warn us of a frontal stall snow event. ❄❄

Edited November 29, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[northwestsnow]

UKMO looks finely poised at 144..

disrupt!!

[TSNWK]

Ukm looks worthy of discussion and nit a million miles from icon 

 

[Kasim Awan]

Would love to see ukmo uppers at 120h. Looks like another snow event.

[Battleground Snow]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Would love to see ukmo uppers at 120h. Looks like another snow event.

120 and 144 attached... Cold uppers inching closer

[mountain shadow]

GFS is obviously poor with the ICON being dragged out. And indeed it is..

Edited November 29, 2021 by mountain shadow

[Allseasons-Si]

Brutal cold to the NE on the UKMO 144...

Edited November 29, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z at T+123; so, just before the point where chaos takes over (so I think I can break my self-imposed embargo). But I think it highlights where all the ensembles' confusion will stem from?

    

[Dennis]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Brutal cold to the NE on the UKMO 144...

its where i am in Norway @Allseasons-si

Edited November 29, 2021 by Dennis

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

120 and 144 attached... Cold uppers inching closer

@tight isobar looks like a sleety thing. Could easily upgrade tho, all we need is a 25% increase in the easterly flow and drop the intensity of the low by 50% to eradicate the mild core and bam. You're talking a repeat of Saturday with another week of seasonal cooling.

Edited November 29, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[TSNWK]

On 29/11/2021 at 16:06, tight isobar said:

Gfs @wetter/meteo.. stalled!!

Stuck 50o in the meter. Now at 

 

On 29/11/2021 at 16:14, mountain shadow said:

GFS is obviously poor with the ICON being dragged out. And indeed it is..

I'm sticking with meteocile.... Prefer the format and colors

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Brutal cold to the NE on the UKMO 144...

Yes, quite a marked difference against the latest GFS run. Will it be snow showers on a biting NELy into SE Britain or mizzly and mild ? Real struggle with the models at 96t and beyond. Maybe just look no further than the end of Friday. 

C