Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gorgeous morning here!!current temp -4!!snow cover everywhere!icicles hanging of pipes!!you would think its mid january right now!it was such a privilege to have 2 snow event in the space of 24 hours and this early on in the season and winter aint even started!!im so grateful right now!!just to confirm this is the earliest snow fall since novemeber 2010!

 

Yes ,got 2 inches from snow showers yesterday and was-4 here this morning  too.

Wedge watch GFS 6Z ...

 

View from top of my Street ( saddleworth )

Back to the models, I expect GFS to drop any notion of Azores ridging North this run ).

[Iceaxecrampon]

On 29/11/2021 at 08:42, Eagle Eye said:

I really hope so

I really hope not  - Last February was brutal.

[mountain shadow]

All eyes on the MJO to see whether it can positively influence into mid December. 

Some members do give a decent wave length into favourable phase 7, these might be the ones that support higher heights to our North East, however, many members have little interest and barely leave the COD if at all, these members would favour a flatter pattern.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

All eyes on the MJO to see whether it can positively influence into mid December. 

Some members do give a decent wave length into favourable phase 7, these might be the ones that support higher heights to our North East, however, many members have little interest and barely leave the COD if at all, these members would favour a flatter pattern.

I've picked up some twitter chatter pointing to the Pacific as being the 'enemy' moving forward ..

Probably beyond my pay grade explaining the mechanisms...

 

[Updated_Weather]

16 minutes ago, fromey said:

Make of these what you will

Dam someone beat me to it!

Sorry

[Battleground Snow]

Very early in the run, but less energy spewing off the north west vortex and slightly more robust heights to the NE

Edit by 126, it's looks much better!

Edited November 29, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Premiere Neige]

23 minutes ago, Beanz said:

Yes, very much so - but we shouldn't hang our hats on that fact.  

Not aimed at you (at all) but it makes me chuckle that every year, people forget the fundamentals.

We all know that an easterly from a Scandi high isn't nailed on and should be taken with a MASSIVE pinch of salt until around 96hrs, anything beyond that is just hints even with cross model agreement.  

Claims of a snowfest from charts at 264hrs should be ignored

We all know the MetO will not 'fall in to line' on these kind of set-ups until they are certain, and the last 24hrs demonstrates exactly why - they have resolve and experience and more resource than we do.  

I am a snow lover as much as anybody here, but one thing I've learnt from many years of this is that watching, waiting and playing the odds on FI signals is far better for my blood pressure and general well being. 

I certainly wasn't going to hang my hat on a scandi high developing! Just a thought that the GFS may (not guaranteed to) pick up the signal again later. But as you say, no certainty of this...

[tight isobar]

On 29/11/2021 at 09:52, northwestsnow said:

I've picked up some twitter chatter pointing to the Pacific as being the 'enemy' moving forward ..

Probably beyond my pay grade explaining the mechanisms...

 

The Pacific ridge has been a pain in the £€$@ for the last two seasons! It holds - and retracts at the worse possible times as if teasing!!!

[TSNWK]

Big differences at 108 over Iceland.. there is no low pressure there that was there at 114 0z.. good thing I hope with less energy against any fledging heights to our north… 

[Premiere Neige]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The Pacific ridge has been a pain in the £€$@ for the last two seasons! It holds - and retracts at the worse possible times as if teasing!!!

I would have thought given the current PDO state conditions would have been more favourable in the Pacific this season. I wonder what's working against it...

[TSNWK]

Heights over scandi are trying again on this run.. huge difference from 0z

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

It seems the EPS has support of some kind of easterly flow from 7th dec

 

33 minutes ago, fromey said:

Make of these what you will

Dam someone beat me to it!

That’s around. 30% chance - more than enough to be a serious option

They do look more predicated on a euro low as much as the are a scandi high - but we don’t need a scandi high IF we get persistent euro troughing - a wedge and weak surface high will suffice (and has been mused for some time, the deep cold up there will encourage a cold surface high and associated wedge). 

Edited November 29, 2021 by bluearmy

[sheikhy]

Massive difference very early on gfs 06z!!!this model all of a sudden is all over the place!tell us something new!

[tight isobar]

Av a word ref  But again the signal bouncing bk 

[Dave Kightley]

MOGREPS-G chart

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

---

MOGREPS-G numerical weather prediction model

This model any good..? Looks around or just below average.. doesn’t really support an easterly or big snow I don’t think

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

MOGREPS-G chart

WWW.THEWEATHEROUTLOOK.COM

---

MOGREPS-G numerical weather prediction model

This model any good..? Looks around or just below average.. doesn’t really support an easterly or big snow I don’t think

It has an almost legendary status because it is apparently the MetO's premium mid to long range tool, but is (currently) visible to only a select few.

[TSNWK]

Oh dear.. was looking a bit better early on.  But GFS teeze keeps in giving and we are left with this in week 

[northwestsnow]

This is the direction we are going IMO.

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Oh dear.. was looking a bit better early on.  But GFS teeze keeps in giving and we are left with this in week 

Happy it removed the mess around Iceland at 114.

Wouldn't take much notice of what it does post 168 in regards to throwing pieces of the vortex at us, these will most likely disrupt if we have a decent block in place

[tight isobar]

The gfs throws up a tri- ejected LP!!! I’m sorry it’s all over the gaff atm!!!- and understandably!!- it’s true model mayhem after 144 hrs 

[Dave Kightley]

10 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

It has an almost legendary status because it is apparently the MetO's premium mid to long range tool, but is (currently) visible to only a select few.

I’ve just read it does it mean.. I were lucky lol.. very few support an easterly but not without very  cold options just not many..  safely say 7c in London is below average..towards the end of the period round the 8th is. Bigger spread

Edited November 29, 2021 by Dave Kightley

[LRD]

Well, it's not winter-geddon but it's not without interest either. GFS for a week on Wednesday:

[IDO]

Not a million miles in design from the ECM:

ECM 0z>  GFS 06z> 

Variations on this theme, with obvious differences at this range, in the components within the pattern (distribution of energy, etc). Nothing too bad as we enter December IMHO.

[Snowman.]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This is the direction we are going IMO.

Maybe a little bit flatter on that low and defo more trough disruption. 
 

Wouldn’t surprise me if after the first low slides we see heights trying to once again build in the Atlantic north. 
 

 

[Neilsouth]

I tend to throw models in the bin when they do these dartboard crazy hurricane low pressure systems, not because it's not showing what I want to see, but it's usually wildly unrealistic!