Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[daz_4]

Jules is going to have a heart attack this morning. We went from beautiful winter nirvana in Central Europe to SW express over Christmas. Classic

Edited December 17, 2021 by daz_4

[Mark Smithy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Western Europe cold.

Eastern Europe mild

very rare set up...

 

It really is. I know a lot of people will want to focus on the devil in the detail but I can't recall seeing such amazing northern blocking before, with an easterly running from the Urals to the eastern seaboard of the US. Quite amazing. The results of that here, if it holds, will be extremely interesting. Some marginal moments but also some blasts of severe cold with snow.

Edited December 17, 2021 by Mark Smithy

[Ali1977]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Western Europe cold.

Eastern Europe mild

very rare set up...

You’d have to say this could end up a very long cold period  looking at the NH, along with seeing the seasonal forecasts for Jan!!  

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, daz_4 said:

Jules is going to have a heart attack this morning. We went from beautiful winter nirvana in Central Europe to SW express over Christmas. Classic

Yep. Minus days to double digit plus temperature in 24 hours

[northwestsnow]

I can understand the frustration ,it could be coldies have ' lost ' Christmas...

But the blocking high is going to force that jet south If we take GFS /EC at face value,and hopefully by Boxing Day the Arctic air floods south.

If we lose this one I think I'd have to take a break TBH...

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by northwestsnow

[Chesil View]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

To my eye, the ECM keeps the trend going, this time with the snow line dropping progressively further south during Christmas Day, eventually reaching the far south during Boxing Day.

But it's all about the trend for now. It's tight for snow, but then it always is for the UK. Just being within the margin of error at all is good news right now!

You mean Just like xmas 62 MWB

[That ECM]

On 17/12/2021 at 07:05, northwestsnow said:

I can understand the frustration ,it could be coldies have ' lost ' Christmas...

But the blocking high is going to force that jet south If we take GFS /EC at face value,and hopefully by Boxibg Day the Arctic air floods south.

If we lose this one I think I'd have to take  break TBH...

 

Is there a memorable winter that started on Boxing Day? Not seen it mentioned on here.

[Eagle Eye]

What's with the negativity?
Since when did we trust models 8 days out? 
Plenty of time for it to change, 1 run doesn't make much of a difference, the weather moves in mysterious ways 

[Jason M]

24 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Swing back to what? It's the coldest ensemble suite so far lmao

Huge uncertainty though given that the massive divergence in temps at day 4 and 5.

[The Northern Ramper]

Don’t things usually adjust south in these scenarios when the Atlantic comes up against a block?

[Chesil View]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Trending the wrong way guys.  Need a decent ECM.  Another problem that the eps picked up last night is not enough eastward progression of the southerly tracking lows - heights are beginning to rise over south east Europe resulting in lows stalling.  Let's hope that this trend reverses.  Meanwhile eyes down for the ECM.

As long as they stall in the channel Mulzy I,m not worried  

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I can understand the frustration ,it could be coldies have ' lost ' Christmas...

But the blocking high is going to force that jet south If we take GFS /EC at face value,and hopefully by Boxing Day the Arctic air floods south.

If we lose this one I think I'd have to take a break TBH...

 

Its going the wrong way for christmas day with a  slight shift north!!could be just a delay and eventually we will get what we want after that but we dont want delays cos the more delays the higher the chance of things goin wrong even more!!

[Updated_Weather]

On 17/12/2021 at 07:09, Ramp said:

Don’t things usually adjust south in these scenarios when the Atlantic comes up against a block?

That’s true that’s usually the case things adjust south but.. doesn’t always happen! 
just to have to be patient and watch

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Especially for these.

A snowy ECM run and in all honesty the knee jerk reactions this morning I read at 6am considering the charts was enough to put me in a mood simply because I don't understand why people are so emotionally driven at a chart that shows sliders coming into cold air, yes this morning everythings a few hundred miles for North, but why you getting hung up because your in the milder air on a chart that's 7 days away! 

Look for key points, high pressure to the North, cold to the east, sliding low pressures, the finer details come much nearer the time and with sliding lows it's the last 2 or 3 days max you wanto be looking at the rain/snow boundary. 

I can only think some of you enjoy the emotional day to day runs but it's not healthy! What ever you do, NEVER do inter day trading online if your emotional it will destroy you! 

Have a good day gang

[The Northern Ramper]

If the conservative’s can lose North Shropshire then we can have snow at Xmas.

The Xmas miracle is still on.

[saintkip]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Western Europe cold.

Eastern Europe mild

very rare set up...

I can live with transient rain events if colder air is incoming...

Not sure I like that chart, looks a bit flakey with all the warm air to the east. 

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Not sure I like that chart, looks a bit flakey with all the warm air to the east. 

Doesn’t matter about the east in this set up

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Not sure I like that chart, looks a bit flakey with all the warm air to the east. 

We'd benefit from the lows being a tad further SE ..

It might happen as we tick down , this tends to happen - moreso with a big Greenland block ...

What we obviously don't want to see is anymore movement north of the lows , and I'd agree we have little room for manaouvere here...

[saintkip]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Doesn’t matter about the east in this set up

If we’ve got lows going under the block sooner or later the weather will be coming from the east, we’d end up with a nice mild Easterly‍

[Kasim Awan]

14 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Don’t things usually adjust south in these scenarios when the Atlantic comes up against a block?

Unfortunataly that's more common for 30-50 mile tracks south in frontal systems than macro scale (200 mile +) changes in the synoptic pattern. Still possible though.

[seabreeze86]

For the Christmas period a small shift southwards for everyone to get in on the fun 

But longer term we could be seeing the beginnings of a cold spell not snap PV in tatters 

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, saintkip said:

If we’ve got lows going under the block sooner or later the weather will be coming from the east, we’d end up with a nice mild Easterly‍

Low risk chance.  What is a worry is a west based -NAO in the medium term.  That needs monitoring.  Hopefully we'll just about avoid it....

[bluearmy]

the change in the eps mean from day 10 to day 9 tells a story …….

could be the closest but no cigar to a widespread Xmas snowy period in decades! 

still time for a correction but the trend is the trend 

  

Edited December 17, 2021 by bluearmy

[frosty ground]

On 17/12/2021 at 07:27, bluearmy said:

the change in the eps mean from day 10 to day 9 tells a story …….

  

What’s the story?

[Georgina]

18 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

A snowy ECM run and in all honesty the knee jerk reactions this morning I read at 6am considering the charts was enough to put me in a mood simply because I don't understand why people are so emotionally driven at a chart that shows sliders coming into cold air, yes this morning everythings a few hundred miles for North, but why you getting hung up because your in the milder air on a chart that's 7 days away! 

Look for key points, high pressure to the North, cold to the east, sliding low pressures, the finer details come much nearer the time and with sliding lows it's the last 2 or 3 days max you wanto be looking at the rain/snow boundary. 

I can only think some of you enjoy the emotional day to day runs but it's not healthy! What ever you do, NEVER do inter day trading online if your emotional it will destroy you! 

Have a good day gang

This is a fantastic post From a newbies POV , really positive and telling us what to keep an eye out for Thankyou