Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Don]

1 minute ago, mbrothers said:

Sorry but what are u worried about

Travel I imagine?

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, mbrothers said:

Sorry but what are u worried about

Just saying if that came off the excitement would be lost as attention would shift to risk to life etc.

[mbrothers]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:42, Kasim Awan said:

Just saying if that came off the excitement would be lost as attention would shift to risk to life etc.

Not sure it would be all that life threatening as u say . 

[Dancerwithwings]

Looks like most members are, well take a look yourself.. no words needed

The mean jet stream on is well, well south on the big day

Edited December 16, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[alexisj9]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:40, mbrothers said:

Sorry but what are u worried about

Blizard conditions in the south, no one know how to cope, I remember the red warning everyone ignored about ten years back, because the one a week before didn't happen, a lot of people got stuck out, trying to get home from work, and this was just in Kent and Sussex.

[BLIZZARDMAN]

Flatliners at -10

[Met4Cast]

Meanwhile the Met Office forecasts are still quoting "locally mild" for northern areas.. what has happened to them in recent years? 

Very good GEFS mean, what a shift!

We get to do it all over again tomorrow.

[Mike Poole]

Last one from me.  We’ve been used to only getting scraps of proper winter weather off the back of SSW events in the last decade.  Only 1 significant snow event that I can remember that wasn’t, 10/12/17 - and if I’d lived the other side of the M4 it was rain.  

This winter we have everything - and I mean everything - in our favour, and we don’t need a SSW because the strat and trop have never coupled, and have never looked further from doing so for the time being.  

Stratobserve NAM plot shows disconnect for the foreseeable;

So while the strats away, the trop will play (I might have said that before, sorry!) and then some.  There is some very interesting weather to come for the UK in my opinion, and it might last a fair bit longer than the Christmas period.  

Night all

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:44, mbrothers said:

Not sure it would be all that life threatening as u say . 

Ermm it certainly would @p9 fruition.. villages/ small towns would be completely cut off- London at complete standstill.. And highly like electricity malfunction/ power cuts etc.. it would be of Armageddon proportion.. literally!!

[frosty ground]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:42, Kasim Awan said:

Just saying if that came off the excitement would be lost as attention would shift to risk to life etc.

O come on the runs aren’t that bad 

[Howie]

4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Looks like most members are, well take a look yourself.. no words needed

The mean jet stream on is well, well south on the big day

That's nothing short of amazing tbh

[Mapantz]

Let's not get carried away..

We're a long long way from any certainty at these ranges, let alone life-threatening blizzards..

Please don't use this thread for those discussions. That is purely suited for the moans/ramps thread.

[Wold Topper]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:50, tight isobar said:

Ermm it certainly would @p9 fruition.. villages/ small towns would be completely cut off- London at complete standstill.. And highly like electricity malfunction/ power cuts etc.. it would be of Armageddon proportion.. literally!!

'Armageddon proportion' is a bit dramatic

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Last one from me.  We’ve been used to only getting scraps of proper winter weather off the back of SSW events in the last decade.  Only 1 significant snow event that I can remember that wasn’t, 10/12/17 - and if I’d lived the other side of the M4 it was rain.  

This winter we have everything - and I mean everything - in our favour, and we don’t need a SSW because the strat and trop have never coupled, and have never looked further from doing so for the time being.  

Stratobserve NAM plot shows disconnect for the foreseeable;

So while the strats away, the trop will play (I might have said that before, sorry!) and then some.  There is some very interesting weather to come for the UK in my opinion, and it might last a fair bit longer than the Christmas period.  

Night all

The lack of proper coupling of the strat/trop was a key point of my winter forecast this year - Graned I went for a below average December as I expected blocking/MJO to develop earlier in the month, although by early December that became clear that wasn't going to happen, but overall happy with how things are progressing so far.

A key point here is that our weather patterns are very much trop led so far this winter, there's been a lot of talk about the SPV in recent weeks but it just doesn't seem that important for the time being, but will likely play a greater role later in the winter. 

For now.. I don't think we could possibly be in a better position.

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Let's not get carried away..

We're a long long way from any certainty at these ranges, let alone life-threatening blizzards..

Please don't use this thread for those discussions. That is purely suited for the moans/ramps thread.

Perturbation 9 of the gefs is almost certainly a life threating blizzard on xmas day. Not stating it will happen nor that it has any worthwhile likelihood.

[IceDaysAndBalticNights]

2 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:

'Armageddon proportion' is a bit dramatic

Couldn't agree more, we've had 2 red warnings for snow here in South East Wales in the last 8 years. In 2018 we had 8ft snow drifts and there was no armageddon, everyone just got on with it and carried on as normal. 

[northwestsnow]

Those 18z GEFS are a big upgrade ...

As an aside the BBC now saying colder as we head through next week...

[Stu_London]

Some nice model eye candy tonight.

Whilst ensembles are improving there are still too many that go the way of the control run or similar busts to get carried away just yet.

Day 8-9 still FI - particularly with an easterly involved.

Prefer to see where we are in 3 days time before I start lobbying Boris to call Cobra meetings. 

 

[Kasim Awan]

43 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ermm it certainly would @p9 fruition.. villages/ small towns would be completely cut off- London at complete standstill.. And highly like electricity malfunction/ power cuts etc.. it would be of Armageddon proportion.. literally!!

This is a spot on assessment of p9. 

Edited December 17, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Don]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Those 18z GEFS are a big upgrade ...

As an aside the BBC now saying colder as we head through next week...

Yes, I imagine they are.  However, it was always going to get colder next week to be fair.

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 23:59, IceDaysAndBalticNights said:

Couldn't agree more, we've had 2 red warnings for snow here in South East Wales in the last 8 years. In 2018 we had 8ft snow drifts and there was no armageddon, everyone just got on with it and carried on as normal. 

We’re not talking about wales though- but the capital of England @ most highly populated part of uk- including surround.. it’s highly unlikely to happen anyway! But the point it’s even modelled is worthy of note... moving on!

[Purga]

Pretty decent 18z mean chart for Xmas day

Short ENS showing strong support (majority) for the cold Operational solution.

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, I imagine they are.  However, it was always going to get colder next week to be fair.

Still I'd rather they are saying that than saying  getting milder !!

[Don]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Still I'd rather they are saying that than saying  getting milder !!

Oh absolutely! 

[IceDaysAndBalticNights]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

We’re not talking about wales though- but the capital of England @ most highly populated part of uk- including surround.. it’s highly unlikely to happen anyway! But the point it’s even modelled is worthy of note... moving on!

Doesn't matter if it's for wales or London though does it, to say it'll be Armageddon is just ridiculous.