Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, MJB said:

Which could mean no battleground scenario and a feed of snow showers from the East 

That isn't a snowy feed over Scandi @ 186h. It's a powerful snow laden trough well embedded in the 500mb flow.

[Tim Bland]

Looks similar to the ECM ..it’s been a Good day of model watching for snow lovers In wales! 

[TSNWK]

Pattern looks better on this run with trough out west more disrupted, but uppers are warmer…

 

[Snowman.]

Actually an upgrade!

[MJB]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

That isn't a snowy feed over Scandi @ 186h. It's a powerful snow laden trough well embedded in the 500mb flow.

That's not what I was saying , more highlighting we could end up with less snow in certain areas 

[Snowman.]

Gearing up for a proper NE'ly blast this.

Formation of a channel low ESE of the one already in there!

[ICE COLD]

Colder air inbound  

[tight isobar]

Another run another variation! And as we’ll see the up and down flow/inflows.. anyway we are in the driving seat now... and from the weekend- tis, indeed time to start viewing of minimal scale prognosis

[Snowman.]

So much better than the ECM.

Get the ruler out for them Easterlies!

Perfect low placement with the German/France border.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Snowman.

[feb1991blizzard]

There's no argument over this run now, its a stonker, the Eastern side about to get a tonking.

[Ali1977]

It’s another Booom from me

[ICE COLD]

There we go

[Ice Day]

This has been really a really messy run so far, but ironically this could be a barnstorming FI coming up.

 

Not a run to be trusted for me, but we'll see.  The general theme continues though, which is what's most important at this range

 

[TSNWK]

It’s delayed a tad but now it’s colder Christmas we have this and it looks incoming

[saintkip]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Colder air inbound  

That’s much better, proper cold incoming 

[Mike Poole]

Hope that the timescales just allow for the cold air to combine with this channel low, T204:

Keep your eye on the other side of the globe too, given other runs today!

[ICE COLD]

So much better than the ECM at the same time .

[LRD]

Well, it's been unconvincing but what a run for Christmas Day

[TSNWK]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:34, Mike Poole said:

Hope that the timescales just allow for the cold air to combine with this channel low, T204:

Keep your eye on the other side of the globe too, given other runs today!

What you thinking other side mike

[Met4Cast]

BOOOM. 

Best run of the season so far by a country mile. 

[swfc]

Just now, LRD said:

Well, it's been unconvincing but what a run for Christmas Day

Hi LRD, unconvincing in what way?? Tia

[Mike Poole]

Ahhh! Sorted, pub run T222:

[tight isobar]

Beautiful Synoptic,- elongated high- = allowances from more expansion of inroads for colder overheads!! And by now we’d like be creating our very own colder pooling  myvery 1st BOOM of the season  av it

Edited December 16, 2021 by tight isobar

[frosty ground]

The high is further east and it looks like the Atlantic is going to ridge north again 

o yeah and a classic easterly with some decent low 850 injected into it

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

What you thinking other side mike

More trop vortex shredding!  Just slightly differently to ECM.