Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Horrendous , really????

When there's a lot better options on the table yes horrendous.

That Norwegian shortwave will be the death of me at this point. I needs to be a little further SE then I can rest. I don't mind missing snow and what not on the first try if it can be repayed with a good, cold, NE'ly after. 

[ICE COLD]

11 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

As suspected horrendous. Opportunities later, but you miss Christmas. 
 

For the sake of my stress levels I really wish it wasn’t happening during Christmas!!

Actually looking at T156 on UKMO there’s light snow quite widespread even in the south

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Actually looking at T156 on UKMO there’s light snow quite widespread even in the south

Snowline moves north tho. Likely to be snow to rain event maybe even back to snow as it pulls away.

Alas it just merely one run. WIll be different tomorrow but I am not buying into a smooth sailing ride for us. This WILL be bumpy.

 

BTW I may come across as having an outburst, but these things can catastropically wrong in a short time, GEFS are 50/50 on cold and snow and relying on model programming to be 'underestimating' blocks or over doing troughs doesn't sit right in the stomach. As such my feet are grounded in that there's great potential for a real festive treat for EVERYONE not just the north/midlands/south etc. Convection will kick in further north and after November 2010 we all know what that can bring.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Snowman.

[iowpompeylee]

Let’s get the cold in first before looking at snow depth charts. No question this will change it always does. Going to be a rollercoaster But theres a great chance of a cold period coming up! What a great position to be in. I’m going to enjoy the ride!!!  

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Snowline moves north tho. Likely to be snow to rain event maybe even back to snow as it pulls away.

Alas it just merely one run. WIll be different tomorrow but I am not buying into a smooth sailing ride for us. This WILL be bumpy.

Oh yer it will defo be a bumpy ride . But it will swing back and fourth. Hopefully the cold will be further south . I couldn’t think of a better Christmas present than a white Christmas.

[The Northern Ramper]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I kind of need to get my breath back after that ECM run!  Some observations:

Earlier this afternoon, I suggested that GFS would move to ECM 0z, it did, and was a classic run.  I didn’t offer a prediction of what ECM would do, but I didn’t expect it to blow the trop vortex to smithereens, as it has, T240:

This run - as it stands - is not good for Christmas snow for anyone south of Watford Gap services.  But it would unlock potential for all sorts of evolutions down the line.  You cannot easily put back together a vortex as smashed as this - I’ve seen SSWs do much less damage than this.  

So, it is day 9-10 anyway so to be counted as a freak run, for now anyway.

Let’s look back to T120:

Whether this works or not for the UK depends on stuff happening in two completely different places around the high.  You’ve got the cold air (black arrow, probably drawn that a bit wrong but you get the idea) which needs to negotiate the Norwegian low, and Atlantic energy (yellow arrow) which needs to slide under the high.  Talk about high risk, high reward!  Get it right and we’ve a massive snowstorm on Christmas Day.  But if not, the potential is still there for a few days later…

I think you are right Mike, the southerners should suck this run up for the greater good

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

When there's a lot better options on the table yes horrendous.

That Norwegian shortwave will be the death of me at this point. I needs to be a little further SE then I can rest. I don't mind missing snow and what not on the first try if it can be repayed with a good, cold, NE'ly after. 

Agreed. With that thing just a little farther Southeast, the entire cold inflow from the Northeast would be pulled to a more Southern trajectory.

We'll have to go through more runs for two days or so, watching that shortwave through our fingers, I guess!

[Staffmoorlands]

Just now, Ramp said:

I think you are right Mike, the southerners should suck this run up for the greater good

It’s very rare to get a widespread snowy spell over the UK. This setup favours the midlands upto about Glasgow. Further south looks like missing out 

[Ali1977]

Just now, Staffmoorlands said:

It’s very rare to get a widespread snowy spell over the UK. This setup favours the midlands upto about Glasgow. Further south looks like missing out 

On this run only , snd we may not need cold uppers and snow charts are rubbish…watch this space 

[weathercold]

Apologies for posting off topic …this caught my attention

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Agreed. With that thing just a little farther Southeast, the entire cold inflow from the Northeast would be pulled to a more Southern trajectory.

We'll have to go through more runs for two days or so, watching that shortwave through our fingers, I guess!

Everyone will benefit under a proper cold flow. Frontal snow in the south and convection further north. Keeps everyone in the game.

[Ali1977]

EC Mean, EC46 and GFS 18z still to get through - let’s see if we can up the excitement a notch.
What times the EC46 out, I imagine that won’t be as good as earlier in the week, only because it was exceptionally good then though!!

[The Northern Ramper]

4 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

It’s very rare to get a widespread snowy spell over the UK. This setup favours the midlands upto about Glasgow. Further south looks like missing out 

But what they miss out on opens up the path to a snowy nirvana that they crave.

[Notty]

24 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And that is the starter before the main course on Xmas day,...hopefully.

Yes, front stalling and returning south dumping loads of snow

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

It’s very rare to get a widespread snowy spell over the UK. This setup favours the midlands upto about Glasgow. Further south looks like missing out 

It'll trend south - seen it loads of times in this set up (well, in the rare times we get this set up!). It sometimes goes so south that everyone misses out on the frontal snow!

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, LRD said:

It'll trend south - seen it loads of times in this set up (well, in the rare times we get this set up!). It sometimes goes so south that everyone misses out on the frontal snow!

Yes, I've seen these things move from snow just over Scotland, to the thing trending as far south as the middle of France!

[Mucka]

 

Discussing where the snowline etc is on a run is fine and good but The NIMBY posts in the MO thread rapidly become tiresome. Take it to moans and ramps or regionals please guys.

We are on the cusp of a cold spell over Christmas with a possibility of snow of falling anywhere but before we know we have dozens more model runs  so please be excited for the prospects for now.

Plenty of time for us all to cry into our Xmas puds yet.

[Anthony Burden]

As I mentioned in my last blog look to the north ie omega block,with the latest on the polar vortex being

Hit for six this must be the best chance for many many years that we get a real shot at winter that a lot

of the younger people on this site have seen.My take look north not south.

[Chesil View]

10 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Agreed. With that thing just a little farther Southeast, the entire cold inflow from the Northeast would be pulled to a more Southern trajectory.

We'll have to go through more runs for two days or so, watching that shortwave through our fingers, I guess!

Still plenty of time for that to happen.

[tight isobar]

Let’s just say- 99:9 /100 any continental flow @once established, sees southern/eastern England brunt bearing of lowest temperatures/ precipitation!.. I’ve been there a few times and worn the t-shirt too.. bk to the models.

[Chertseystreamer79]

Im just loving the fact that we are talking about where SNOW might fall.

Great day so far on the models...pub run to come but overall trend looks well stabalized with good consistency and some fine tuned synoptics.

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Im just loving the fact that we are talking about where SNOW might fall.

Great day so far on the models...pub run to come but overall trend looks well stabalized with good consistency and some fine tuned synoptics.

I would still caution that the snow is showing in FI. Let's get this down to 4 days out first before getting our metre sticks out!

[Valleyboy]

40 minutes ago, swfc said:

Why is it to far north SLEETY? Its a model it Dosnt understand north and south. Pretty feasible but could go further north or south

In these situations, you will find things trending south closer to the time, sometimes the Uk misses out, with the snow ending up over the channel isles.  Too early to predict where the snow will fall this far out.  Snow forecasting this far out is rarely correct.

[Georgina]

Hi everyone x 

I can certainly see a promising set of 12z runs from Derbyshire, not sure everyone else shares the same view
I’m certainly no expert but I feel it's too early to get caught up on snow past fantasy point which according to other posters is around 168h
If it can change it will and who says it wont be in our favour ! Honestly, save yourself some worry for the festive period

Georgie x

[Chertseystreamer79]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I would still caution that the snow is showing in FI. Let's get this down to 4 days out first before getting our metre sticks out!

I did say might...