Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Lukesluckybunch]

biggest problem is,it seems too organised not enough trough desruption

[tight isobar]

Another great Synoptics run - stunning top profiling .. and still deciphering for the lay of heights in situ. Any west/east based placement and the over our heads changes quite significantly- @ especially in snow chance terms.And upper air temperature plots too -. Brilliant stuff going forwards. Quite incredible

Edited December 16, 2021 by tight isobar

[seabreeze86]

ECM day 10 has the AO through the floor unbelievable chart 

[IW Met]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

too mild though the uppers.surely wont be snow

I agree, at least for the southern half. The norhtern half of the UK would take a beating!

 

[January Snowstorm]

Charts are massive!! But for the older and wiser among us heights need to strengthen to our North.

No yellows over Greenland is my worry 

[LRD]

Brilliant arctic profile on ECM 240

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

biggest problem is,it seems too organised not enough trough desruption

I'm not seeing any problems only opportunities. 

[ICE COLD]

UKMO T168 finally updated. Snow for the midlands north 

Edited December 16, 2021 by ICE COLD

[LRD]

Bigger picture is superb. Detail to be ironed out later. I don't think we'll know who will get snow, if anyone does, on the 24th and 25th until Monday/Tuesday next week (presuming the bigger picture doesn't change drastically

I'm pleased to say that, so far, Kasim was more right than I was in our respective morning assessments

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO T168 finally updated. Snow for the midlands north 

As suspected horrendous. Opportunities later, but you miss Christmas. 
 

For the sake of my stress levels I really wish it wasn’t happening during Christmas!!

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 19:02, ICE COLD said:

UKMO T168 finally updated. Snow for the midlands north 

Let’s see where the precipitation/850s are sitting this time next week ay?!- I have a hunch where/possible!. But I’ll keep that to myself

[Allseasons-Si]

On 16/12/2021 at 19:02, ICE COLD said:

UKMO T168 finally updated. Snow for the midlands north 

And that is the starter before the main course on Xmas day,...hopefully.

[Singularity]

Really not worth focusing on where in the UK the snow line ends up on each run - there’s often a southward trend as it approaches the 2-3 day range, but sometimes there isn’t, and we have no way of knowing for sure which it will be this time.

Thats assuming we see the Atlantic undercut or fusion with Scandinavian trough to begin with (though odds of that do look to be on the up).

[Summerstorm]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

As suspected horrendous. Opportunities later, but you miss Christmas. 
 

For the sake of my stress levels I really wish it wasn’t happening during Christmas!!

So I see objectivity has gone out the window then as for some that looks fab. Also the colder air is dropping in behind it as the low moves S/SE anyway as you track it between 156-168hrs.

I wouldn't worry anyway as these lows have a habit of tracking further south than expected anyway

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Summerstorm

[Kasim Awan]

17 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Thought you were gone for a bit

I tried

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm not gonna post charts as others already have.

The ECM is similar too the Gem...the Arctic profile looks pretty yummy tbh..I understand concerns that the South may be on the wrong side if the boundary,but that Low pressure too the South could be much further South come nearer the time..Its possible that someone will receive a pasting from this...but you've got too admit the overall profile does look nice.

Heres hoping that we all get in on the action.. but come on folks considering what we normally get at this time of the year,I would say for sure this makes one hell of a refreshing change sypnotically...

Keep the faith you could be about to receive a present or 2 here.

[swfc]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Wow, ECM into cloud cuckoo land on T216!  

A - Won’t happen.

B - Cold too far north now.

I'm not sure what you meen Mike? There's know template for this. Your correct it won't happen exactly like that but cold too far north?? Tia

Edited December 16, 2021 by swfc

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

As suspected horrendous. Opportunities later, but you miss Christmas. 
 

For the sake of my stress levels I really wish it wasn’t happening during Christmas!!

Horrendous , really????

[Yarmy]

The issue for the south (on this run) is that the Norwegian shortwave extends too far west and phases with the low pressure crossing the Atlantic between T144 and T168.

Just a question of timing really. A smidgen further E-SE and a bit quicker and everyone would be in the game. UKMO is similar. 

[Guest]

To the southerners getting tetchy, it's gonna be like this for every run studying these uppers  I saw someone say they won't change much... I suppose they're half right but the position/northerly extent of the isotherm you want or require will change run to run and model to model as they play with the synoptics and particularly the NE'ern shortwave direction/energy. As others have said, the trend is the important thing and, once we get the festive period into the reliable we can all enjoy a chat about our individual snow prospects on the regionals 

We have a nail-biting and wonderfully exciting model watching period in play and the days ahead will test our faith, as well as the B,O and M keys on our keyboards as we get sucked in with the cold potential on offer. Loving the mood and the discourse this evening!

Edited December 16, 2021 by Steel City Skies

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Horrendous , really????

IMBY post, there's a few to wade through! They're insanely misleading but add to the colour of the thread this evening  

[Lukesluckybunch]

the ensembles will be interesting,lets hope its not the coldest option in there

[Mike Poole]

I kind of need to get my breath back after that ECM run!  Some observations:

Earlier this afternoon, I suggested that GFS would move to ECM 0z, it did, and was a classic run.  I didn’t offer a prediction of what ECM would do, but I didn’t expect it to blow the trop vortex to smithereens, as it has, T240:

This run - as it stands - is not good for Christmas snow for anyone south of Watford Gap services.  But it would unlock potential for all sorts of evolutions down the line.  You cannot easily put back together a vortex as smashed as this - I’ve seen SSWs do much less damage than this.  

So, it is day 9-10 anyway so to be counted as a freak run, for now anyway.

Let’s look back to T120:

Whether this works or not for the UK depends on stuff happening in two completely different places around the high.  You’ve got the cold air (black arrow, probably drawn that a bit wrong but you get the idea) which needs to negotiate the Norwegian low, and Atlantic energy (yellow arrow) which needs to slide under the high.  Talk about high risk, high reward!  Get it right and we’ve a massive snowstorm on Christmas Day.  But if not, the potential is still there for a few days later…

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 19:09, Steel City Skies said:

To the southerners getting tetchy, it's gonna be like this for every run studying these uppers  I saw someone say they won't change much... I suppose they're half right but the position/northerly extent of the isotherm you want or require will change run to run and model to model. As others have said, the trend is the important thing and, once we get the festive period into the reliable we can all enjoy a chat about our individual snow prospects on the regionals 

We have a nail-biting and wonderfully exciting model watching period in play and the days ahead will test our faith, as well as the B,O and M keys on our keyboards as we get sucked in with the cold potential on offer. Loving the mood and the discourse this evening!

Just for quote; then I’m pulling away from this- the gfs 12z has a boundary line for snow/ and general colder clasp, from the south midlands... SOUTH.. with little or no chances above that boundary line around the Xmas period itself!. It’s all gonna fall on someone’s laps... who’s is the question.. and we await the forwarding modelling answers... good innit

Edited December 16, 2021 by tight isobar

[Snowman.]

Just now, Summerstorm said:

So I see objectivity has gone out the window then as for some that looks fab. Also the colder is dropping south as the low moves South East anyway as you track it between 156-168hrs

 

I am seeing perfectly fine. A positively tilted trough heading ENE. Sure could drag down colder air behind but delay of cold means that the chance for more things to go wrong increases.

It's a solution, but half the GEFS ensembles have a similar tale and they don't end up too pretty. 0z could easily have things trend west further then suddenly we're all out of coldspell. I want to be wrong truly, but when presented with a chance like this you want things to go right the first time.