Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Mike Poole]

Wow, ECM into cloud cuckoo land on T216!  

A - Won’t happen.

B - Cold too far north now.

[Ali1977]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Anyone know the bookies odds for white Christmas… asking for a friend?

1/12

[Gowon]

6 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Looks like your area will miss out this time

Looks like it unless the GFS is right

[SLEETY]

Too far north everything, but probably not correct anyway, considering the timeframe we are looking at, nothing resolved today. 

[Tim Bland]

I’m sure many will be happy waking up to this on Christmas morning… just for fun at this stage of course, could go a long way north or south of this yet! 

[Cold Winter Night]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Could this finally be the year where everything comes together just at the right time for a snowy Christmas?… it’s starting to look that way!! 

 

My ridiculous IMBY FI snow post: This one has 10 cm of snow right where I live. That's good enough! Bank!

[Ali1977]

At 216 , snow storm looks like coming at 240 too 

[Staffmoorlands]

Looks like a classic 80’s setup with rain pushing up from the south west and turning to snow before retreating back. Yes, some southern areas will miss out but the midlands and higher areas of Wales and the south West will get a good dumping

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Wow, ECM into cloud cuckoo land on T216!  

A - Won’t happen.

B - Cold too far north now.

Looks feasible to me Mike based on current model output 

[Bartlett High]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

At 216 , snow storm looks like coming at 240 too 

Yess!! Smoke on the water!!

[weirpig]

Past few years there as been snow flying about just after Christmas. Could be another year 

[clark3r]

I believe on this run Boxing Day the snow line will come south 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Paul said:

Brave. Look back though the model threads over the last decade and you'll see they're littered with similar 'nailed on' cold events going wrong from this sort of range and even closer in.

Not least in 2018-19: Front-loaded winter, nailed-on winter, MetO on-board. . . Oops! It's 21C in February!?

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Ecm has a fab tilt to the North East between 168 and 192h. Excellent for bringing in a north easterly post Xmas. Too much worry in here.

Yep. Looks like we could be in winterland for a while after Christmas. NH craziness.

[stodge]

To quote the oft-used cliche on here:

Evening all

To quote another well-quoted term:

It's all on the knifiest of edges. Strangely, the prospects of snow have increased dramatically in the past 48 hours as the original notion of an anticyclonic cold spell has eased away. The Atlantic attack (there's always one, isn't there) may just pass to the south for many people but the worrying signs of a West-based NAO remain.

We're frantically looking for some kid of medium term cross model consistency - and yet, here are some of the T+192 chart on offer this evening GEM, JMA, GFS OP and ECM respectively:

Plenty of variation, plenty of options, plenty of scope for happiness, plenty of scope for the toys to be turfed out of the pram.

To quote yet another maxim:

More runs are needed,

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Too far north everything, but probably not correct anyway, considering the timeframe we are looking at, nothing resolved today. 

Why is it to far north SLEETY? Its a model it Dosnt understand north and south. Pretty feasible but could go further north or south

[tinybill]

if  this comes  off  i take this on xmas  day

[Ali1977]

This screams decent longevity of the cold spell , and she’s loads of snow 

[jvenge]

I hate the run for me, but I realise it shows something nice for some people.

 

[Staffmoorlands]

240 is ace for the midlands again

 

[bluearmy]

Well if you believe that consistency is of value then the 12z ec op is going to be more likely than this mornings ……
 

  

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

This screams decent longevity of the cold spell , and she’s loads of snow 

too mild though the uppers.surely wont be snow

[Tim Bland]

Just for fun A whopping 50cm for higher parts of wales by day 10 Moseley falling over Xmas day / Boxing Day ️

[Purga]

Could be better but the broad pattern is maintained & it will be different on the day !

It's not a downgrade at all

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

This screams decent longevity of the cold spell , and she’s loads of snow 

AO would absolutely be tanking based on this run