Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[andy989]

1 minute ago, IW Met said:

I do think so, those uppers are pretty poor for southern parts. 

The good thing is the cold is extremely close. As in over the uk, which means little differences can put the whole of the uk in the game. But on the other hand, could go the other way. Good model watching none the less.

I do however think that "Boom" has lost its meaning. It's thrown about everytime a single run shows cold. I want to see multi day cross model agreement before I Boom

[Mike Poole]

ECM T192 v GFS:

As suspected, the cold initially goes too far north, compared to GFS which hit the sweet spot, but plenty of time to adjust!

Edited December 16, 2021 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

Yesssss

[Tim Bland]

Could this finally be the year where everything comes together just at the right time for a snowy Christmas?… it’s starting to look that way!! 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Tim Bland

[frosty ground]

wouldn’t you expect to see more low pressure over Europe with that airmass?

[Lukesluckybunch]

192 that will do!!

[Updated_Weather]

On 16/12/2021 at 18:42, D.V.R said:

The ECM looks poor to me, everything is too far north. 

 

You might want to add..for you*
 

all chalk and cheese at the moment, more changes and adjustments to come - but we are in a good place imo

[Staffmoorlands]

1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

The ECM looks poor to me, everything is too far north. 

 

Looks like your area will miss out this time

[Allseasons-Si]

Pivot point happening,...the cold is starting to head south again,...what a chart and the next two frames could be epic.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

surely cant go wrong from here..that lobe looks primed to drop down over us.or at least some of it!

Brave. Look back though the model threads over the last decade and you'll see they're littered with similar 'nailed on' cold events going wrong from this sort of range and even closer in.

[weirpig]

Could be marginal for some. But that chart at 192  is amazing for Christmas Eve. More lows lining up to follow. Very rare charts at the mo for time of year 

[IW Met]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

192 that will do!!

Synoptically looks reasonable but the cold is much further north, so really based on this run, only half the country will be seeing the good stuff while the other half watches on TV

[bluearmy]

Well it could have swung further so I guess we’ll take that 

[swfc]

Anxiety comments, discussion on "booms" areas for snow come on chill out folks. Give it till 144-160 hrs mark honestly. Great output but keep that powder "semi" dry it makes sense. An old saying"least said soonest mended"looking good on the output and wintry, be it fi. Enjoy ladies

[Ali1977]

The cold is heading south, could be epic next few frames 

[Daniel*]

The blocking is definitely weaker in contrast to GFS also going too polewards. We won’t call this a disaster but it could be a lot better. Understandable to not yet see these details resolved. Likely we won’t till weekend.

 

[Gowon]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

You might want to add..for you*
 

all chalk and cheese at the moment, more changes and adjustments to come - but we are in a good place imo

Cold rain for the majority I reckon.

[ICE COLD]

Yer baby 216  could do with it a bit further south but another good run . Details yet to be resolved 850s etc 

Edited December 16, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Ali1977]

Woooohoo, this block is holding great. What a day 10 this will be 

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Ali1977

[Man With Beard]

Specifics not important at the moment. General trend is all that matters for the next 72 hours. That trend = we are currently in the game for a white Christmas. Not often you can say that inside of D10 south of Scotland.

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 18:43, Staffmoorlands said:

Looks like your area will miss out this time

- please some of you need to put the razors down!@ will it won’t it snow on my house! We are in an incredible position going into Xmas- and it’s “ no matter what “ getting colder.. and I’m sure with current and on going Synoptics- snow will become a key word- but at this point it’s advisable to concentrate on the overall evolution/ evolutions... @ winters coming- and in time for Xmas

[Kasim Awan]

Ecm has a fab tilt to the North East between 168 and 192h. Excellent for bringing in a north easterly post Xmas. Too much worry in here.

[Updated_Weather]

Anyone know the bookies odds for white Christmas… asking for a friend?

[Updated_Weather]

On 16/12/2021 at 18:50, Kasim Awan said:

Ecm has a fab tilt to the North East between 168 and 192h. Excellent for bringing in a north easterly post Xmas. Too much worry in here.

Thought you were gone for a bit

[Jason T]

Well for me and I would say some others, Lush eye candy atm especially on our run up to the big day and perfect timing too. Up to 168 pretty much agreed by the big three in runs, very rare imo. Yes ecm not showing what we all want but its running and so are gfs and ukmo, we can now follow that path and the finer detail will evolve as we get to that special period, Christmas dinner being served with all the trimmings and a dollop of WHITE GOLD somewhere who knows for now, but I will say I have always been told never forecast snow fall till at least T48. Enjoy folks.