Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Cold Winter Night]

5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

The control shows a big problem when the cyclone destroys the ridge and gets connected with areas of low pressure at the Atlantic Ocean. 

The speed, size and direction of both the Atlantic and the Scandinavian Low are critical.

This morning it went wrong on UKMO, but UKMO is now on board.
But the fact that the ECM, UKMO and GFS Op runs are OK for cold should relieve worries for now, I think.

[Ali1977]

Anyone seen the UKMO 168, did it slide? 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dickens Christmas ♥

Bah, humbug!

[frosty ground]

On 16/12/2021 at 17:23, Ed Stone said:

Bah, humbug!

Your getting busted by three models for that 

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GEM looks great 

GEM not that good, in my opinion, like the ICON, the cold air reluctant to make it to the south, even by T222, won’t get snow off that:

All part of the uncertainty range at the moment.  Going to be very busy in here until this is sorted one way or the other, but we haven’t been in with a chance such as this for proper snowy Christmas weather for years.  

[jvenge]

Just for fun.

 

 

[Updated_Weather]

If ECM is consistent I think… the roof will go off in this place & dare I say if it has any upgrades.. my word.

ECM is up next

[Notty]

4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well that was a nice surprise after not looking at models all day coming home to this being shown for Christmas day..

Out of interest has your percentage increased for cold Christmas Kasim? (Apologies if you have already stated it...not able to look at the hundreds of pages at mo)

Yes it is a kind of addictive agony chasing cold on this forum...but i'm hooked...craving ....ecm..

 

I think @Kasim Awan mentioned 70% after the last GFS

[chicken soup]

20 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What is going on here? No one has called the GFS12Z 'crap' yet! I guess it all comes down to desire?

I'm calling it crap...that snow stalls just before hitting my region

[Frosty.]

If this isn’t coldies Nirvana..please tell me what is?…oh my days..I need a lie down!  …ps.. I had a feeling it would be busy today..  

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well that was a nice surprise after not looking at models all day coming home to this being shown for Christmas day..

Out of interest has your percentage increased for cold Christmas Kasim? (Apologies if you have already stated it...not able to look at the hundreds of pages at mo)

Yes it is a kind of addictive agony chasing cold on this forum...but i'm hooked...craving ....ecm..

 

Still around 70% for cold and snowy. Think I'm gonna be taking a break from the thread for a day or so, the last couple of days has been pretty intense (in a good way, mind ). Plus, infrastructure up here is weak and needs to be secured before (if) a blizzard arrives. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Still around 70% for cold and snowy. Think I'm gonna be taking a break from the thread for a day or so, the last couple of days has been pretty intense (in a good way, mind ). Infrastructure up here is weak and needs to be secured before (if) a blizzard arrives. 

Don't jinx it, we don't need that added stress 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Eagle Eye

[tight isobar]

Still updating- but let’s have a look at the 500geos.. 23/24th continental flow in all its glory @ GEFS

Edited December 16, 2021 by tight isobar

[minus10]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Still around 70%. Think I'm gonna be taking a break from the thread for a day or so, the last couple of days has been pretty intense (in a good way, mind ). Infrastructure up here is weak and needs to be secured before (if) a blizzard arrives. 

Bet you dont.....

[Lukesluckybunch]

whilst the op was brilliant,the GEM and the control have the same pattern,the cold air flooding west and north.hope ECM isnt like this

[supernova]

GFS Op plummets to the bottom of its own (short) ensembles from Boxing Day. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong obvs. Control very much at the other extreme.

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by supernova

[Don]

1 minute ago, supernova said:

GFS Op plummets to the bottom of its own (short) ensembles from Boxing Day. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong obvs.

At the same time, the control is at the higher end of the ensembles later.  Not to say that will be wrong either.

[swfc]

The GEM looks  slow burner to me. The gfs 12z control Dosnt look great in  the same time period all honesty but that's nit picking

Edited December 16, 2021 by swfc

[frosty ground]

On 16/12/2021 at 17:35, swfc said:

The GEM looks  slow burner to me. The gfs 12z control Dosnt look great in all honesty but that's nit picking 

But these nits need to be picked whilst we have a range of options on the table nothing is guaranteed.

[Purga]

Just got home and thought I'd have a quick update - guess the GFS 12z has cheered the troops a tad?

Go - Compare

00z ECM Boxing Day Chart                     12z GFS Boxing Day Chart

  

Consistent or what?

 

PS: Let's hope now that ECM doesn't throw us a googly this evening !

 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Purga

[Met4Cast]

Being picky this is ringing some alarm bells

12z det at the bottom end of the envelope by boxing day but still a fairly significant number of members remaining on the milder side through the Christmas period, perhaps a little more compared with the 06z run. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Am I concerned with those 850s from the Gem? At first glance before looking at the NH profile...you would say yes!! But then looks a little deeper...and it screams undercuts and a potential snow making machine...this could get real interesting for the first time since 2010 regarding wintry potential around this timescale...know doubt about it.

[Allseasons-Si]

The ECM/gfs and GEM for day ten,...OK the GEM not quite there but IMO it has been showing the scenario for the last couple of days or so and would produce a day or two later,...it still looks bloody good though

gefs ens day ten mean,...i will have that doughnut with a cherry on top.

OK ECM,...now your turn again!

 

 

[jules216]

Anyone Has link to UKMO 168hr chart?thanks

[E17boy]

Please don’t let us down