Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Kasim Awan]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The high looks like it’s following the earlier days runs

It's more the angle of the sliders we need to watch... these broadly look similar to gfs..12z..

Upstream it's concerningly a tad north like ecm.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Kasim Awan

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T114:

Just need this sodding feature to get with the rest of the cold evolution towards the UK:

[MATTWOLVES 3]

37 minutes ago, LRD said:

Probably one or two on here that remember that 1881 spell very well!

Good spot that. I think we have to take our warmed/warming climate into account though

Well I'm not sure about the 1881 spell,bit before my time...

But the 87 spell was sublime..school was called off and me and a few others were trapped in some old apartment building..I remember around -5 in a gale force wind...complete whiteout..if only we would have had mobile phones then...would be some memorable pictures mate.

Output looks interesting tonight,potentially a boundary line being drawn somewhere between rain and snow.. I've heard a few saying Midlands Northwards..but bare in mind the Midlands is a very big area North to South! And we've seen on the day numerous times before how these set ups adjust 50-100 miles during the course of 24hrs! December 2017 was one such event that adjusted quite some stretch.

Beyond this colder and unsettled spell...potentially snowy for some,where are we heading!

This current set up we have with the teleconnections are very favourable for periods of lengthy blocking,and in fairness if we don't get wintry episodes from this set up,there's something very wrong.

But for me and I'm sick of saying this...the Atlantic looks like its going to be hitting a cul de sac more than once this coming winter. Confidence is growing for me of some decent wintry episodes to come...if we can hit phase 8 mjo even better..im liking a lot.

A very good evening to you all.

Edited December 16, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[frosty ground]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:12, Kasim Awan said:

It's more the angle of the sliders we need to watch... these broadly look similar to gfs..12z..

Upstream it's a tad north like ecm.

Heights are higher over scandi 

not sure what’s happening but the low is further north and following earlier runs 

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T144:

We have the Greenland high, we have the Atlantic at least trying to slide, do we have the cold air?

[MJB]

12 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Mad! Why would the Beeb wanna show an Xmas day graphic already! Suckers!

Because it's in the 7-10 day outlook , maybe ........................just a thought

[tight isobar]

The Norwegian drop feature playing havoc - and doing no favours and actually holding the eastern  Progression!- we need to see a quicker drop and absorb of that little bugger!!!!

Edited December 16, 2021 by tight isobar

[frosty ground]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:17, Mike Poole said:

Pub run T144:

We have the Greenland high, we have the Atlantic at least trying to slide, do we have the cold air?

Looks like the cold air is shunted east a bit

[Kasim Awan]

It's sliding.. & siberian army thuds getting louder

[Lukesluckybunch]

looks like it will get there at 150h

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

The Norwegian drop feature playing havoc - and doing no favours and actually holding the eastern progrssion!

To me its the Atlantic messing up mainly this run, if a negatively titled elongated low or a shortwave was cleanly ejected SE wards, we would still get away with it but its getting too messy.

[MJB]

Snow edging in on the 23rd 

[Ali1977]

cold enough for it to turn to snow already 

[swfc]

Do people think there will not be fluctuation in the runs ie temps and the angle any areas of low pressure will react in the Atlantic and north sea

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To me its the Atlantic messing up mainly this run, if a negatively titled elongated low or a shortwave was cleanly ejected SE wards, we would still get away with it but its getting too messy.

We might still be okay, its desperately trying to sort itself out.

[frosty ground]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:22, swfc said:

Do people think there will not be fluctuation in the runs ie temps and the angle any areas of low pressure will react in the Atlantic and north sea

No one thinks that and I’m not sure why your even saying that 

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:21, feb1991blizzard said:

To me its the Atlantic messing up mainly this run, if a negatively titled elongated low or a shortwave was cleanly ejected SE wards, we would still get away with it but its getting too messy.

I get ya but I still think as we approach nearer frame , the progress of the forementioned- will start to delay somewhat.. the models are imo underestimating the strength of the blocking!

[Froze were the Days]

ECM 0z easterlies and wintery nirvana even in the south but mean at D9/10 suggests cold outlier, then we have 12z run which isn't that much different with low heights to the south west (not sliding as per the 0z) bringing somewhat milder conditions into the south but the mean suggest almost at the top as a mild outlier at D9/10. So I'm banging my head thinking what the hell would be the mean at D9/10 be then? these outliers always do my head in!

Sorry gone off on one when eyes on18z...

Edited December 16, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:22, swfc said:

Do people think there will not be fluctuation in the runs ie temps and the angle any areas of low pressure will react in the Atlantic and north sea

[Kasim Awan]

Crucially.. cold air moving sw out of Scandi is moving faster than the Atlantic at it's feable attempt of moving east.

[Mike Poole]

Looks a bit like the GEM 12z to me, but slightly better southern impact of the cold air, T168:

[MJB]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Crucially.. cold air moving sw out of Scandi is moving faster than the Atlantic at it's feable attempt of moving east.

Which could mean no battleground scenario and a feed of snow showers from the East 

[frosty ground]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:25, Kasim Awan said:

Crucially.. cold air moving sw out of Scandi is moving faster than the Atlantic at it's feable attempt of moving east.

Spotted that it was shunted east earlier  but has moved back west quite quickly 

[Ali1977]

It gets there, another run in the bag ️

[tight isobar]

- this 1 feature literally putting the brakes on the uk going into the freezer mid range.. and thank god im almost certain it’s being made much more of an issue- than what will actually be!

Edited December 16, 2021 by tight isobar