Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[LRD]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Hi LRD, unconvincing in what way?? Tia

Energy off of the Norwegian coast that could easily phase badly, the fact that the Atlantic energy is a bit precarious. But having said that, the trend and bigger picture is excellent. No two ways about it. Far better than 12 hours ago. Far, far better

[Ice Day]

If at 2.00pm on Boxing Day, the NH profile looks like this, I'll eat my own trousers.  

But run after run is churning out stuff like this..... and long may it continue!

[TSNWK]

Gang! When you get a mo just click down on local view 850s from 192 onwards.. it’s beautiful watching the blues stream down in 6 hours chunks…

[tight isobar]

Breathtaking for cold persuasive notion- were now locked in on this run

[Kentspur]

Got to laugh everyone pulls out the booms yet for here in NW Kent it still shows rain on this chart boxing day then dry for the rest of the time as the winds too NE rather than ENE for here. Like pulling teeth to get any wintry precip here  

 

I'm sure we will see some forecast here on next images though 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Kentspur

[Crackerjack]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

If at 2.00pm on Boxing Day, the NH profile looks like this, I'll eat my own trousers.  

But run after run is churning out stuff like this..... and long may it continue!

Would be Awsome too if you’re name was Donald !! Donald where’s your trousers sorry it’s why I mostly lurk I’m just excited 

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:43, Kentspur said:

Got to laugh everyone pulls out the booms yet for here in NW Kent it still shows rain on this chart boxing day then dry for the rest of the time as the winds too NE rather than ENE for here. Like pulling teeth to get any wintry precip here  

 

I'm sure we will see some forecast here on next images though 

it’s gfs precipitation chart.. ya may as well get a 6 year old child to draw one @ this range  no panic there

Edited December 16, 2021 by tight isobar

[Allseasons-Si]

The gem was the first to latch onto this scenario and if this is right,...all hale to the gem

this has got to be the best model watching since 2010(i was a newbe then and was just lurking),...this is fantastic stuff

but i have to say but on the current models that the south may not favour at this point,but and i say but again,...i have witnessed over the years that systems tend to head further south as we get closer to T0,but,...ha ha ,...every year is different

i do feel that looking at the NH profiles over the last few days the tpv is looking more and more shattered into ,...well oblivion 

heights into the pole smashing the trop(not induced by the strat) into mid lats,where they land the golden snow ticket will deliver.

[Snowman.]

Need to snip off the SE part of our high to keep the cold air running.

 

Fantastic run anyway.

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Got to laugh everyone pulls out the booms yet for here in NW Kent it still shows rain on this chart boxing day then dry for the rest of the time as the winds too NE rather than ENE for here. Like pulling teeth to get any wintry precip here  

 

I'm sure we will see some forecast here on next images though 

With -9 uppers, 850hpa height of 1400m equate to dark hour 2m temps of -1.7C.

[ribster]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gem was the first to latch onto this scenario and if this is right,...all hale to the gem

this has got to be the best model watching since 2010(i was a newbe then and was just lurking),...this is fantastic stuff

but i have to say but on the current models that the south may not favour at this point,but and i say but again,...i have witnessed over the years that systems tend to head further south as we get closer to T0,but,...ha ha ,...every year is different

i do feel that looking at the NH profiles over the last few days the tpv is looking more and more shattered into ,...well oblivion 

heights into the pole smashing the trop(not induced by the strat) into mid lats,where they land the golden snow ticket will deliver.

No golden snow for me cheers

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gem was the first to latch onto this scenario and if this is right,...all hale to the gem

this has got to be the best model watching since 2010(i was a newbe then and was just lurking),...this is fantastic stuff

but i have to say but on the current models that the south may not favour at this point,but and i say but again,...i have witnessed over the years that systems tend to head further south as we get closer to T0,but,...ha ha ,...every year is different

i do feel that looking at the NH profiles over the last few days the tpv is looking more and more shattered into ,...well oblivion 

heights into the pole smashing the trop(not induced by the strat) into mid lats,where they land the golden snow ticket will deliver.

It was looking almost nailed on from last Sunday. It's been interesting watch the expected model latency be revealed.

[Snowman.]

Mean is so much better btw. Heights much stronger north! More a NE'ly angle than NNE.

 

 

Ensembles are great step up already.

Edited December 16, 2021 by Snowman.

[Ali1977]

Right, now we need to see the best set on ENS yet, getting the cold in on all around the 24th and then seeing what happens from There. I just have a feeling this might turn into something quite memorable - being Xmas then for longevity of cold  

[Mike Poole]

By T270, the pub run has the trop PV looking like a piece of Emmental that the dog’s had a right go at!

[Uncertainty]

I’m not ready for the b word but the 18z op’s an absolute stunner. 

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Mean is so much better btw. Heights much stronger north! More a NE'ly angle than NNE.

 

 

Ensembles are great step up already.

Good spot, black hole anomaly now on the mean and a tad further south 

Incredible to see these charts w/o an SSW. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by Uncertainy

[northwestsnow]

Looking for a flip on the 18z GEFS..

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Looking for a flip on the 18z GEFS..

You've got it!

[The Northern Ramper]

9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

If at 2.00pm on Boxing Day, the NH profile looks like this, I'll eat my own trousers.  

But run after run is churning out stuff like this..... and long may it continue!

Pigs and blankets with those trousers?

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Need to snip off the SE part of our high to keep the cold air running.

 

Go on then, get the scissors out!

This rollercoaster ride is beginning to make me feel a little queasy!   However, I'm not complaining!

[ICE COLD]

This is just a nuts . If that comes to pass then surely more beasts will follow . 

[tight isobar]

On 16/12/2021 at 22:51, northwestsnow said:

Looking for a flip on the 18z GEFS..

Done

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Pigs and blankets with those trousers?

Defo a sausage in there somewhere..

[Ali1977]

I was just looking at the ENS at 156 and was a little deflated, then I realised it was the 12z clicked back to 150 and WOW - huge improvement!! 

[Andypvfc]

4 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Looks good for the midlands for a white Christmas.

Not for us, on one picture the Snow went just South of Stone