Model output discussion - Christmas approaches

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, supernova said:

If this plays out as per ECM there’s going to be a lot of relieved lurkers and posters this morning. Snow levels and location pointless at this range but you get the idea. Still believe southward correction likely. We’re in a straight Easterly by the day after Boxing Day says ECM Op.

.

 

Yes , I’d take 40cm of snow thanks

Edited December 18, 2021 by Ali1977

[supernova]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes , I’d take 25cm of snow thanks

Just seen 240. Even better and more in the game. JFF this far out but anyone calling this a bust very premature this morning.

Edited December 18, 2021 by supernova

[Kasim Awan]

Incase anyone wonders. FL is 168h atm, so any sort of attempt at a break down in output is likely a result of model bias rather than correct handling.

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Incase anyone wonders. FL is 168h atm, so any sort of attempt at a break down in output is likely a result of model bias rather than correct handling.

Morning kasim,what did you make of the ECM? Is there a small chance it could produce white Xmas for many?

[Kasim Awan]

28 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

Unfortunately for us southerners it’s onto the next, the romance of a white Xmas is drifting away and S/SW winds will be influencing us on Xmas day. I just prefer a cold Xmas. but in between Xmas and new year and January will be good model viewing. And chances will come!!!

Hi, I'm 70% sure we'll see further southwards corrections leading upto Xmas. Not a guarantee but most likely evolution given both the direction of momentum for stronger blocking now & tendendy for this in previous events. If you had to ask me now for a punt I'd say M4 corridor towards home counties is somewhat favoured compared to other parts- potential for quite deep snow & drifts - yes. Marginality on east coast & volatile mild sector causing mixing / sleet - yes. 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Morning kasim,what did you make of the ECM? Is there a small chance it could produce white Xmas for many?

Xmas day then 28th snow depth attached.

[Kasim Awan]

Tbh this morning I feel more 80-82.5% confident of a cold & wintry spell commencing around xmas.

The timing of the gefs / ecm switch is uncanny to previous spells.

The modelling has clearly failed to resolve complex trough disruption and thus get a grip on the easterly until now. 

[Captain Shortwave]

21 minutes ago, That ECM said:

A little higher but drifting down. I would expect further movement south tbh. Not to me though but later maybe

Yeah at this moment I will take any momentum bringing this line south. There seems to be a little traction from the UKMO/ECM where there is a logical progression for bringing this southwards. With a potentially stalling front straddling the southern half of the U.K. Then all the conditions need to be is “Cold enough” rather than properly cold.

I would love to shift this further south, frontal snow for the far south and a better chance of bringing in showers further north, along with colder 850s. This list might end up being a little too long for Santa though… 

[Ali1977]

The METO update swung colder when the models didn’t, now the models trend colder I feel we are finally getting close to some sort of resolution!! As mentioned above, bringing the frontal snow to the far south increases the chance of much colder easterlies and snow showers - so for the best U.K. wide snowy scenario for Xmas that’s what we want. 

[LetItSnow!]

If the models are already swinging south with the area of low pressure it’s enough to tantalise me. Only small adjustments are needed now between a cold and wet Christmas for the south or a cold and white one. Something tells me the southerly corrections won’t stop yet, though time as always will tell. 

[mulzy]

Early view of the eps confirms the knife edge position days 5-7.  What is clear though is days 8-10 are colder than last few suites.

[KTtom]

Northern Hemesphere chart for 31st December is astonishing!.... Who needs a SSW? 

 

 

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Northern Hemesphere chart for 31st December is astonishing!.... Who needs a SSW? 

 

 

Did any of the “longest winters” start with a smashed pv and then get reinforced by a SSW at a later date?

[That ECM]

Last one from me until this evening as I’m off to do some (That’ll do shopping) Christmas shopping.gfs mean at T192 similar to ecm. Should of added. Control is what I would love to see. All in the game.

Edited December 18, 2021 by That ECM

[sheikhy]

If anyone doesnt think the runs are an upgrade between 96 and 144 hours then you have woken up on the wrong sife of the bed!!ecm for my area of the world is as good as it gets!!snowy slider after slider!!gfs has maybe lost the plot AGAIN!!!

[knocker]

The Russian ridge linking to the Greenland block, with the tpv lobe 'trapped' over northern Europe and the energy flowing east across the Atlantic south of the latter, is causing some major headaches regarding the detail for the UK and  major disagreements between the models over this period

Edited December 18, 2021 by knocker

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Early view of the eps confirms the knife edge position days 5-7.  What is clear though is days 8-10 are colder than last few suites.

Good news Mulzy, the 8-10 day GFS ENS definitely trended colder too. Something tells me these EC46 charts of the other day May we’ll come to fruition with holding the Greenland block.

[Mark Smithy]

Knife-edge stuff next week.

There's no doubt the synoptics are not as impressive as was first showing but in terms of a comparison with yesterday this is a marked improvement, for those in the Midlands especially.

My own take on this, which is based on nothing more than years of observation, is that all the models at the moment are too progressive, that they often handle blocking patterns poorly, that for now the cold will win out and the real 'problem' next week will be that the advancing fronts may not make much inroad into mainland Britain. 

The cold will win.  

For now.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yet another Channel LP - whenever do these really materialize? 

[carinthian]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

The Russian ridge linking to the Greenland block, with the tpv lobe 'trapped' over northern Europe and the energy flowing east across the Atlantic south of the latter, is causing some major headaches regarding the detail for the UK and  major disagreements between the models over this period

That is the major talking theme now taking place with our portal service team now. Should get back with theirs thoughts soon.

C

[Iceaxecrampon]

On 18/12/2021 at 07:35, Mark Smithy said:

Knife-edge stuff next week.

There's no doubt the synoptics are not as impressive as was first showing but in terms of a comparison with yesterday this is a marked improvement, for those in the Midlands especially.

My own take on this, which is based on nothing more than years of observation, is that all the models at the moment are too progressive, that they often handle blocking patterns poorly, that for now the cold will win out and the real 'problem' next week will be that the advancing fronts may not make much inroad into mainland Britain. 

The cold will win.  

For now.

So your saying GFS is in default Atlantic model mode and somewhere will get lucky with the battleground stall?

[nick sussex]

As a neutral observer currently in Cyprus and not Eastbourne I’ll try and deliver the unvarnished truth over the next few days .

The set up shown over Christmas /Boxing Day can’t deliver for everyone so something to bear in mind. 

Generally the models struggle with blocking . Especially when low pressure is trying to move in from the west/sw.

The alignment of the block is key to aid trough disruption, you want the block to be aligned ne sw and facing head on to any Atlantic attack .

The complication with the current set up is how far east and south the block is not so much the alignment at the point of the first attack from low pressure.

The initial start point re cold air is determined by the strength of the block , how far east se it is and the clearance of the Norway shortwave as that’s the marker for the colder air coming s sw.

You’ll see from the ECM why it has the colder air further sw , the shortwave has cleared south towards Denmark .

The models in the current set up not only have to deal with their normal bias at long range of pushing too much energy ne but also the movement of the block which wants to go further west nw .

The weak point is where low pressure wants to track ne which is over the UK , and where all the drama is going to unfold !

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by nick sussex

[Malarky]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

Once again some of ECM members are a cracker I must say
And you know it's member o'clock

I’ll take number two please.

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

As a neutral observer currently in Cyprus and not Eastbourne I’ll try and deliver the unvarnished truth over the next few days .

The set up shown over Christmas /Boxing Day can’t deliver for everyone so something to bear in mind. 

Generally the models struggle with blocking . Especially when low pressure is trying to move in from the west/sw.

The alignment of the block is key to aid trough disruption, you want the block to be aligned ne sw and facing head on to any Atlantic attack .

The complication with the current set up is how far east and south the block is not so much the alignment at the point of the first attack from low pressure.

The initial start point re cold air is determined by the strength of the block , how far east se it is and the clearance of the Norway shortwave as that’s the marker for the colder air coming s sw.

You’ll see from the ECM why it has the colder air further sw , the shortwave has cleared south towards Denmark .

The models in the current set up not only have to deal with their normal bias at long range of pushing too much energy ne but also the movement of the block which wants to go further west nw .

The weak point is where low pressure wants to track ne which is over the UK , and where all the drama is going to unfold !

 

Question is which is the better model up to 120 hours?!!!

[sheikhy]

By the way it looks like the ecm mean supports the op very strongly!!battleground on the mean looks southern east anglia into central wales and up into northern ireland!!!