Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Lukesluckybunch]

Come one gfs6z pull something out the bag!

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The  trend has been for the cold to be kept further north though. Now looks a rainy Christmas for many south of Sheffield

Another knee jerk reaction post ,  Xmas Day is @ 144 hours , how can you possibly come out with that lol , this won't be resolved until Tuesday / Wednesday and even then there might be a 50 - 100 adjustment on the day , that has happened so many times in the past 

[sheikhy]

Norway shortwave further north at 78 hours!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Norway shortwave further north at 78 hours!!

A good thing?

[Updated_Weather]

4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

This issue is it has consistency with its earlier run. I'm starting to think this could be a close but no cigar situation. Christmas day could be 10c down here, wondering what the hell were the models playing at 6 days ago. 

Doesn’t matter. This is such a complex situation and no model will have this right until much closer I guarantee you. We are looking at Tuesday Wednesday earliest imo for some agreement.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Come one gfs6z pull something out the bag!

Not sure you are going to enjoy what is in its bag.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

A good thing?

Dunno but it aint looking great so far!!!its also further west with the shortwave!!!lets see...

[tight isobar]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

A good thing?

Absolutely NOT !!!!

[Lukesluckybunch]

Think it looks ok.just!

[MJB]

Poor start to the 6z I'm afraid 

Early days , it can rectify itself 

Edited December 19, 2021 by MJB

[mushymanrob]

Sorry if this has been posted, but ive not got time to trawl though 37 new pages!

This chart is a thing of beauty for cold/snow lovers. It has the mean airflow over the UK sourced from within the Arctic Circle! Its looking highly likely that was will get a period of freezing conditions and with a pretty low pressure anomaly over us, snow highly likely imho.

[sheikhy]

Poor poor from gfs to start!!that low is horrendous in the atlantic and so deep and round!!!so different to the ecm and ukmo!are both models about to gst trumped later on?!!

[Coxxy657]

2 minutes ago, Staffmoorlands said:

The  trend has been for the cold to be kept further north though. Now looks a rainy Christmas for many south of Sheffield

im sure the trend has been for colder conditions ? across various models? , and even the gfs 00z showed snow across the southern half of the uk for the 26th and 28th, still a long way to go with this i think

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

Sorry if this has been posted, but ive not got time to trawl though 37 new pages!

This chart is a thing of beauty for cold/snow lovers. It has the mean airflow over the UK sourced from within the Arctic Circle! Its looking highly likely that was will get a period of freezing conditions and with a pretty low pressure anomaly over us, snow highly likely imho.

How comes this is looking so much better than the Ops I wonder

[ANYWEATHER]

Why are folks getting hung up on every model run? The trend is there for cold ,as regards snowfall ,let's get the cold in and then let's talk about snow There's a fair chance some people will be the first to see a white Christmas day for many years ......let the weather unfold......☺☺

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Poor poor from gfs to start!!that low is horrendous in the atlantic and so deep and round!!!so different to the ecm and ukmo!are both models about to gst trumped later on?!!

Wouldn’t worry @sheikhya lot more changes to come and I doubt by the big day - it’ll look like what is currently being shown

[Winter Hill]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Think it looks ok.just!

Think you must be looking at a different model 

[tight isobar]

At this rate the outer hebradys will be lucky to see a flake of snow @ Xmas let alone anywhere else- almost t-shirt weather for a massive swathe via 6z 

[mountsbaysnow]

I think we will have better idea whats gonna happen on Christmas next Saturday  (excuse my humour I'm new to inputting on the forum) great watching btw.

 

[MattStoke]

6z so far actually has the coldest air a tiny bit further south than the 0z. You wouldn’t think so reading the comments on it so far.

[Beanz]

43 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Nothing has really changed. It’s just the usual overreaction of some to individual model runs at 7 days out during a highly complex situation.

Surely @sheikhy isn’t awake yet…? 

[sheikhy]

What makes it more painful is that the ladt few days has just been mucky and cool with grey skies not a frost and then we got the gfs to waste even more time maybe!

[MJB]

GFS 6z it's just one option of many that is on the table , I wonder how high in the ENS this sits .............top end is my guess 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

6z so far actually has the coldest air a tiny bit further south than the 0z. You wouldn’t think so reading the comments on it so far.

Just what I was thinking. It was never forecasted to start pre Christmas Day/Boxing Day either! 

[Ice Day]

GFS 6z at 114 vs UKMO & ECM 0z at 120

   

Now of course it's possible that the GFS has trumped the Euro models at this range, but not very likely in my opinion!