Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[bazookabob]

I wonder if this morning's improved (apart from UKMO) output has anything to do with the typhoon in the west Pacific, which has disintegrated overnight, and its effect on the MJO? Any experts able to speculate on that? 

[northwestsnow]

Well, I've had about 3 hours kip and have to go to work at 6.30 for a 12 hour shift...

Ironically that will pretty much be the time whereby its ..

or ❤❤❤

I do hope it's the latter!!

[londonblizzard]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Nothing short of an xmas day blizzard round these ends.

You're looking just about ok up there, but unfortunately widespread christmas day rain for many still on the 0Z

Edited December 20, 2021 by londonblizzard

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

You're looking just about ok up there, but unfortunately widespread christmas day rain for many still on the 0Z

My excitement is turning into worry anyway. The conditions are not nice up here in a blizzard. It's scary and unless you've experienced it you wont really know what I mean.

[tight isobar]

Everything- including the kitchen sink leaving the mean in the sunset. Bar stragglers, - and with divergence still in raw ops,... even Christmas Day is up for grabs...STILL!

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Everything- including the kitchen sink leaving the mean in the sunset. Bar stragglers, - and with divergence still in raw ops,... even Christmas Day is up for grabs...STILL!

Midlands north is completely different story

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Midlands north is completely different story

Divulge ?? Here’s the north eastern England ones??!- drop line and sync.. more vivid... but the ball parks the same? With yet still. No definitive clusters it’s an- operational battle, and ensemble graphics deciphering.. 48/ 76 hrs is the prod line now.. @ clearly

Edited December 20, 2021 by tight isobar

[O'Maille80]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS gives my location hours of heavy snow ❄

I hope it isn't telling porkies!!

Come on mate you're better than that Imby bull.....oh wait that's ducking class for me too

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

Come on mate you're better than that Imby bull.....oh wait that's ducking class for me too

I'm unconvinced

[tight isobar]

The temperature plots @2m- stepped backwards with the operational through recent suites.. they now look better than ever!!!.. chew away at date referral.. but they are now the best they have been 00z

Edited December 20, 2021 by tight isobar

[Iceaxecrampon]

35 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

You're looking just about ok up there, but unfortunately widespread christmas day rain for many still on the 0Z

GFS says yes. 

[Evie Aviation]

Is it acceptable to tell my partner I don’t want to go to the family in Newcastle, I want to stay in Manchester for Christmas .

 

I have a friend who lives in Ashbourne, Derbyshire and I think that area looks like it could get hit the same as you Kasim in Buxton. I’ve been on those isolated roads around the Peak District in heavy snow and it’s pretty terrifying! 

I have just resigned myself this year to the fact that this chuckle brother “to me,  to you” tug of war between the north and south over where snow might fall is all part of the chasing fun. Maybe.  

it’s been interesting to read all your comments around the charts anyway, and to see what may or may not verify in the coming days

 

 

[Kentspur]

36 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well, I've had about 3 hours kip and have to go to work at 6.30 for a 12 hour shift...

Ironically that will pretty much be the time whereby its ..

or ❤❤❤

I do hope it's the latter!!

This is why I love night shifts 12hours done 6pm-6am for me (i do all diff shifts) I get to stay up for the 0z model madness. Never known the models to flip so much chasing a potential cold spell as they have lately kinda shocked how all of them have been flipping from mild to cold scenarios reminds me when I first joined this forum in the early 2000s!

[Lukesluckybunch]

What we need to look out for On the ECM is the break up of the low between 96-120h we need a slider type scenario at least some of the energy has to dive southeast,it's a crucial time frame!

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

What we need to look out for On the ECM is the break up of the low between 96-120h we need a slider type scenario at least some of the energy has to dive southeast,it's a crucial time frame!

That’s the way she’s going.. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

That’s the way she’s going.. 

Yes we may be ok here at 120

[That ECM]

T96 all 3. It’s what they do with the block at this point changes t120 plus.

[tight isobar]

We have queen and king- models agreement I’d say@120, ecm- gfs. So the line is drawn!@120 is breakpoint time @very likely! So overall correct! Given the now low % age of a drastic loop bk within time frame @120. .. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by tight isobar

[Ali1977]

 No chance that’s going well I’m afraid 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ali1977

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, tight isobar said:

We have queen and king- models agreement I’d say@120, ecm- gfs. So the line is drawn!@120 is breakpoint time @very likely!.. 

Didn't quite make it at 120

[booferking]

Ecm is terrible at 120hr

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM is pretty trash at D6 it has to be said. Not at all what we wanted to see.

[That ECM]

Day 6. Clear as mud. 

[Ali1977]

That’s a done deal now I’d say, what a waste of an opportunity of what would have been a great Xmas present for many ️ 

I mean, has the GFS ever trumped both the UKMO and ECM at such short range with such huge differences??? 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Ali1977

[mulzy]

ECM poor up to day 6.  Looks like it will be mild and wet for southern parts of the country in the run-up to and including Xmas (23/24/25/26).