Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

[Chris.R]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Sorry mate but this post is technically wrong

-5 is enough for serious fun in this set up.

Calcs say -7.3C uppers on ukmo.

Agree with you here. Would’ve thought even -2 or lower will be enough assuming some evaporative cooling. All depends on temps in the boundary layer as well (900/925/950 mb). 

[Notty]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

 

1pm Xmas day

1pm Boxing Day. 
 

It’s still game on. 

 

I don’t think it has ever been game off really

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

bit better than i thought actually - good enough for you, probably not me, not sure how much ppn though?

Good enough for sea level away from the east coast. 

UKMO:

Precipitation shadow west of Chadderton, rejuvination west of Crewe

4-9ft drifts and 8-16cm over 250m asl

2-7cm below granted you are away from the shadow above

How high up.are you?

 

SOUTH ON UKMO:

4-9cm widely xmas night- 5-12 inch drifts

snow showers in east boxing day

[tight isobar]

Block reformable @168.. the energy sectors should be breached .. on we ride

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Glad no one jumped on me this time. Saves the thread from a lot of meaningless debarkle.

You the man kasim ..

 

[Liam Burge]

Hey guys. Could the models push the cold air even further south and provide the south-west with cold enough temperatures for snow or am I just being wishful for nothing?

[Premiere Neige]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Great set of 12z runs so far. We really needed that ukmo this afternoon . Lets see a more 'cold friendly' ecm later. Just one thing is preying on my mind though and its something that rarely gets mentioned in here but did yesterday - The issue of solar activity. There has been a big uptick recently and there are forecasts saying some earth impacts are coming in the next 24 hours. I don't know enough about these impacts but I believe they can increase mobility in the northern arm of the jet. Does anybody here have some in depth knowledge about this? I fear it could be a major fly in the appointment with this upcoming possible cold spell. Could do with some words of comfort from someone in the know

As I understand it, there is a lag time of several weeks/months for the affects of any change in solar activity to be felt. 

[Jason H]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Block reformable @168.. the energy sectors should be breached .. on we ride

In isolation, that's an astonishing chart. Look at the isobars.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Great set of 12z runs so far. We really needed that ukmo this afternoon . Lets see a more 'cold friendly' ecm later. Just one thing is preying on my mind though and its something that rarely gets mentioned in here but did yesterday - The issue of solar activity. There has been a big uptick recently and there are forecasts saying some earth impacts are coming in the next 24 hours. I don't know enough about these impacts but I believe they can increase mobility in the northern arm of the jet. Does anybody here have some in depth knowledge about this? I fear it could be a major fly in the appointment with this upcoming possible cold spell. Could do with some words of comfort from someone in the know

Yes it is annoying that the sun decides to wake up now!  However, I'm not sure it's enough to impact our weather at the moment as their might be a lag effect and we are not near solar maximum?  That said, perhaps someone with better knowledge can confirm? 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Don

[tight isobar]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

Hey guys. Could the models push the cold air even further south and provide the south-west with cold enough temperatures for snow or am I just being wishful for nothing?

Certainly possible. In truth it’ll be the last port of call for the correct exactions, but don’t write it off

[Summerstorm]

GFS considering a vacation from Greenland to Norway? 

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Minus 5 across the m4 corridor.. with a Easterly draw might be fun for any frontal perception... 

perception is lacking in the models ……

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Good enough for sea level away from the east coast. 

UKMO:

Precipitation shadow west of Chadderton, rejuvination west of Crewe

4-9ft drifts and 8-16cm over 250m asl

2-7cm below granted you are away from the shadow above

How high up.are you?

 

SOUTH ON UKMO:

4-9cm widely xmas night- 5-12 inch drifts

snow showers in east boxing day

Are you looking at precip on the model Kasim ??.

[Mucka]

Just now, Liam Burge said:

Hey guys. Could the models push the cold air even further south and provide the south-west with cold enough temperatures for snow or am I just being wishful for nothing?

The thing is is, that in the UK it is a bit of a catch 22 in these situations.

The further S cold air digs then the further SW corresponding low is.

As I said a couple of days ago, it may well move into Iberia and PPN miss the UK altogether Xmas.

Still happy with that forecast though I hope it gets far enough N to give some in England snow.

Ideally it will get into N England, turn to snow and then pivot SE but that seems unlikely.

[Snowmadsam]

4 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

Hey guys. Could the models push the cold air even further south and provide the south-west with cold enough temperatures for snow or am I just being wishful for nothing?

Tbh that does sound plausible based on the trend of late. Treat it at the moment as 40 for /60 against in terms of percentage. Oh and wait for the ensembles (thats the graphs). If those lines go down towards colder temperatures, then chance increases. Also consider "skatter" if the lines look all over the place it means that computer models are uncertain. 

Edited December 20, 2021 by Snowmadsam

[goosey007]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Absolute chaos here this afternoon!!this is madness!!!how have we gona back to what charts were showing 48 hours ago!!!

SIMPLE MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE FORCE OF THE BLOCK !! COME ON UKMO I JUST KNEW YOU HAD IT IN YOU!

well it isnt simple its exhausting run to run!....broken the golden rule....ive told my family we are on for a white exmas need this to land!!!! will take boxing day however!

[tight isobar]

Yo she’s heading.. and priming for Scandinavia advances now@blocking formats!- watch for the easterly  this for me imo the way forward ..gfs scandi signal opening..

Edited December 20, 2021 by tight isobar

[Day 10]

The GFS has a band of rain from Northern Ireland down toward London on Christmas Day, followed by snow struggling to push much further North East on Boxing Day.

This is still academic as it will be different again tomorrow or even by the next run!

[Mucka]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Yo she’s heading.. and priming for Scandinavia advances now@blocking formats!- watch for the easterly

Jet too flat this run I reckon but all irrelevant for now when FI is 96/120h

It has been hinting as Scandi high though and that seems to be in line with MetO forecast.

[Premiere Neige]

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

SIMPLE MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE FORCE OF THE BLOCK !! COME ON UKMO I JUST KNEW YOU HAD IT IN YOU!

well it isnt simple its exhausting run to run!....broken the golden rule....ive told my family we are on for a white exmas need this to land!!!! will take boxing day however!

You've done what?!?

[Lincstim]

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

SIMPLE MODELS UNDERESTIMATING THE FORCE OF THE BLOCK !! COME ON UKMO I JUST KNEW YOU HAD IT IN YOU!

well it isnt simple its exhausting run to run!....broken the golden rule....ive told my family we are on for a white exmas need this to land!!!! will take boxing day however!

In my drunken madness on Friday I was telling everyone to remortgage their house and whack it all on a white Xmas.  

[iowpompeylee]

Anything that doesn’t show 10c and heavy rain for the south for Xmas day is a huge upgrade…… 

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, Mucka said:

Jet too flat this run I reckon but all irrelevant for now when FI is 96/120h

It has been hinting as Scandi high though and that seems to be in line with MetO forecast.

The chart above is for the 6z, it should be noted

[swfc]

Seems to have got a bit silly on here over the last week or so. I did introduce the Chuckle bros comment but it's getting like snow watch from way back. Shame really but hay ho. Enjoy

[TommyWalker]

Hi guys, new to this forum but have been following since the start and really enjoying it, I'm in County Donegal, North West Ireland and Met Eireann posted an afternoon update saying its going to be 7 to 10c on Christmas day, fingers crossed it goes colder for ireland

[Mucka]

Just now, Snowmadsam said:

The chart above is for the 6z, it should be noted

That would explain his comment.