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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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Summerstorm Aficionado

Summerstorm

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
Posted

WAA from the second low off the American Seaboard helping to promote the Azores ridge in towards Scandi?

 gfs-0-222.thumb.png.2fc29a1210958a7338438fefd944d1c8.png

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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted

Beautiful chart

This would make up for having no white Christmas.

image.thumb.png.537458eb9f42a03cacd62f59e6edd2db.png

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
2 minutes ago, Midlander said:

That's still the 0Z

Right you are. My mistake.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Wow you guys tho . If your looking for a decent cold spell sometimes you have to get what your given and then watch the synoptics build. If you desperately want a white Xmas day some are going to be disappointed"if snow does fall " the low can't or isn't going to deliver snow everywhere. Beyond that hopefully be it fi the ridging may force a more sse flow with slider chances or a ridge from the sw moving nne . Watch it unfold even without a white Xmas there" could be many more chances in the piplile

Edited by swfc
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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted
8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's the optimistic way of looking at it. Too much like the ecm to me.

Less influence from those Atlantic lows though. And for the long term ECM was not bad this morning.

By the looks of it UKMO starts pushing heights North 3 days earlier than GFS does (144h UKMO vs 192h GFS)

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
13 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

UKMO 144h on wetterzentrale

21dec12UK-144.thumb.png.55c8e40bc4a651cbc8469b10bd648ed1.png

Saddle area forming, while heights begin to creep North across the UK.
Atlantic influence declining.
Genoa Low present too.

Early signs of a scandi heights build

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

I still think N England will have more chance of a white Xmas from the E/NE than the SW.

Some poor saps may be mild n wet, some may be dry n cold while others may hit the jackpot on the big day but we have come a long way since all those game over for cold posts.

We are now staring down the barrel of prolonged cold spell which may well continue well into the New Year as the models slowly come to grips with how hard to shift that dense mass of cold air to E/NE will be with hopefully sliders and renewed Atlantic blocking.

This has been sniffed at by GFS 12z but if the atmosphere plays ball expect that to be all further W and the UK to remain on the cold side of the block.

gfsnh-0-216.png?12

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

GFS is going down the EPS 192h-240h cluster 2 route. Scandi height rises might be our next chase.

21dec12GFS-216.thumb.png.2179fede94b51b49f534877a8bcbacda.png

431097323_21dec0EPS-192(2).thumb.png.0f6b3234f4ab7fbc70cd03786fe00f31.png

UKMO might go there even earlier.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Scandi high by day 10 on GFS.  This is the next chase guys!

Yep until end of April! 

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Yeah I can't remember the last time we saw just massive differences at just 4 days out. One thing's for certain, the cold is coming, it's just the energy coming off the Atlantic that's proving difficult model-to-model. 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Very snowy FI from GFS but big picture is hopefully improving.

gfs-2-264.png?12

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
9 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

UKMO isn’t showing the updated 12z on meteociel guys.. use Wetterzentrale.

I can never figure out wetter . Can someone translate wetter to meteo and provide a view please on 96 onwards.. 

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Wingman Blue Enthusiast

Wingman Blue

Posted
  • Location: Eight miles north of Dartmoor 155m ASL
  • Location: Eight miles north of Dartmoor 155m ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Scandi high by day 10 on GFS.  This is the next chase guys!

Ermm…. Shall we wait for day 3?

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Easterly incoming @ +282hrs

image.thumb.png.6b6ae724371a91f3cf74a508cde66165.pngimage.thumb.png.170f7dfd00b315d94a08aad2d9fff44d.png

 

 

Edited by Purga
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Gowon Veteran

Gowon

Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Very snowy FI from GFS but big picture is hopefully improving.

gfs-2-264.png?12

The band of snow probably won't get that far east if the block holds like that.

Edited by D.V.R
typo
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