SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Neilsouth]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

I wait for 2 hours for the precipitation to reach me... and it ends up falling as rain. What a cold spell! Enjoying the frosts though.

Bit of a joke really! Was not expecting rain 

[Vortex3929]

Good luck to all those wanting to see that infamous White stuff today. Hope you all get a nice covering and that there's no ice to contend with too!!

[Lampostwatcher]

-1.5c dew p -3.2

[wellington boot]

1 hour ago, Darkcloud said:

Stunning morning here, everything white and beautiful soft pastel colours in the sky.

Currently -3°c.

Looking at the models I think any precip falling as snow is going to miss me

GFS Wednesday looks exciting lol

Never rule us out in this kind of setup! I'm over towards Wadhurst and we tend to outperform around here. 

We haven't been quite so lucky last few years, but over the past 15 years or so, that's typically the rule. Think good elevation, hilly terrain, surrounded by sea but not too close, good exposure to NE streamers, and rural area with no UHI all helps.

I do see what you mean - looks like the band could pivot right around us and leave us in a little dry spot, and 0cm is a plausible low end scenario, but I'm always optimistic...

[Captain Shortwave]

24 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Why is it raining/sleeting south of Canterbury? Doesn't bode well for later

It isn't, it's rain/sleet and iceballs

It looks like the onshore flow from the English Channel has lifted dew points above freezing and as such is cause the precipitation to fall as rain. I guess the effects could be amplified given how relatively narrow Kent is (north to south).

[Dbarb]

Looks like Essex could be the sweet spot later. Might get some surprising totals by morning 

[MetManager]

Yep, it's looking that way. Knife-edge situation though...

[snowblind]

3 minutes ago, Dbarb said:

Looks like Essex could be the sweet spot later. Might get some surprising totals by morning 

Fingers crossed.

[Methuselah]

Still sub-zero here, and we have clouds creeping in from the North Sea... I can almost smell the rain!

[alexisj9]

Just started to rain here, PS whatever happened last night came from the south, so might be the same tonight, who knows.

[SHM040519]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Just started to rain here, PS whatever happened last night came from the south, so might be the same tonight, who knows.

I do think we need to wait till after dark for it to happen if it is. Still foggy and cloudy in canterbury. 

[Met4Cast]

Immediate channel coasts more likely to see rain as the air is modified somewhat here by the southerly wind, a few miles inland though and marginality wont be a problem. 

Currently thinking London/N Kent and perhaps into Essex could be the sweet spot for accumulations, locally 5-10cm, perhaps higher with elevation where the low begins to pivot. Precip is already more expansive/more intense than modelling suggested.

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Immediate channel coasts more likely to see rain as the air is modified somewhat here by the southerly wind, a few miles inland though and marginality wont be a problem. 

Currently thinking London/N Kent and perhaps into Essex could be the sweet spot for accumulations, locally 5-10cm, perhaps higher with elevation where the low begins to pivot. Precip is already more expansive/more intense than modelling suggested.

Yes the radar looks very impressive 

[Methuselah]

I'm on permanent fog-watch... It comes and goes in the blink of an eye!

[kold weather]

Nothing snow wise here but wonderfully cold, ice and frost still everywhere.

Current temperature around -2c, so almost certainly going to be an ice day here, first one in quite some time.

[danm]

It’s pathetic seeing the BBC snow/rain graphics for right now and later this afternoon vs what is actually happening. 

I know that these forecasts are based off latest model runs which may be inaccurate, but why don’t they adjust them manually to take account of what is actually falling out of the sky? 
 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2022 by danm

[Tn9]

4 hours ago, Snow Queen one said:

Thick freezing fog today.

ive come back to maidstone near on and it was really foggy then not then was ,wafting ide call it : )

[Lord Grogon]

Well that's a first for me. 

Went out at 8am for my Sunday morning run. -3C, thick fog, absolutely beautiful frost covering everything (great for running as you get all of the aesthetics, but less of the practical annoyances associated with snow).

By the time I had got back, thick white frost had formed all over my legs, well leg hairs to be precise. Astonishing sight. Missus tried to take a photo, but sadly it melted almost as soon as I had entered the house. Been running regularly for over 15 years and have never experienced that. 

Anyway, fingers crossed for the snow later. Even if I get one flake, it will be an improvement on last winter.

[Kent Blizzard]

It's going to be an agonising wait for many, but it's better to have a small risk than nothing at all? We all have an exciting weather week coming up, some may be left disappointed and some over the moon.

We are now in the radar and reports zone....that for me is the buzz. A few miles can really make all the difference.

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

Well that's a first for me. 

Went out at 8am for my Sunday morning run. -3C, thick fog, absolutely beautiful frost covering everything (great for running as you get all of the aesthetics, but less of the practical annoyances associated with snow).

By the time I had got back, thick white frost had formed all over my legs, well leg hairs to be precise. Astonishing sight. Missus tried to take a photo, but sadly it melted almost as soon as I had entered the house. Been running regularly for over 15 years and have never experienced that. 

Anyway, fingers crossed for the snow later. Even if I get one flake, it will be an improvement on last winter.

Wow hoar frost on your leg hair, would have loved to have seen that pic, never mind.

[East Kent Snow Desert]

Greetings from a foggy Herne. After last year's complete no-show anything has to be an improvement. WRT later today and overnight even if it does stay wet around the coasts rather than white, at least this cold spell is bringing down SSTs which can only be a good thing. 

[Tn9]

5 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

It's going to be an agonising wait for many, but it's better to have a small risk than nothing at all? We all have an exciting weather week coming up, some may be left disappointed and some over the moon.

We are now in the radar and reports zone....that for me is the buzz. A few miles can really make all the difference.

We got a low level north easterly here now between Maidstone and  Tonbridge ..gentle very gentle 

[MAF]

So, after my walk to the local shops my observations are - 

1. visibility still around 150 meters 
2. still hard frost on the ground
3. and most importantly; my trainers are useless on slippery surfaces 

[Floatylight]

Frosty pony this morning.

Our pony 'brass'.

He says it's more like brass monkeys today...

See how his own heat saving mechanism is kicking in.

No heat being lost from his body otherwise you wouldn't see frost on him.

Amazing how they are built ,so clever.

Hot breakfast today though lol..

 

 

 

 

[Convergence]

Interesting shopping trip to Eastbourne wit hsome interesting micro climate effects. Raining when we left Eastbourne Asda and +1 degree

About 2 miles inland heading North, still raining, very light Southerly wind. Temp 0 degrees

10 miles inland heading West towards Halland in busy traffic, still cloudy, nill wind but dry, -1 degree.

The moment we turned South off the main road and onto our quiet country lane the temperature dropped back to -4

I suspect we're now in a slightly milder airmass here with a cold pool underneath up to maybe as little as tree top height. Where there's lots of traffic on the main road, the really cold air at ground level is being mixed out with the slightly milder air above. 

Where I live, 10 miles inland, still on the flat and same altitude as the main road, but with no wind or mixing, it's still bitterly cold.

Would be interesting to know what the temperature currently is higher up locally, such as in Heathfield or Hadlow Down?

I'm between Ringmer and Uckfield.