SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

[Atmogenic]

Hmm it seems to be a bit wet out there, lots of roads becoming flooded

[daveinSB]

4 hours ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

Good Morning all.

I hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

Looks like another bout of heavy thundery type downpours are looking to track across extreme Southern coastal areas of our region, in the next few hours. I hope our own Nick F. doesn't mind me quoting his Thunderstorm Watch post:

"A strong cyclonic westerly flow covers most of northern Europe, with a strong zonal jet stream running from NE USA across the N Atlantic to N France and on through Germany and Poland. Returning polar martime flow across the UK will be characterised by increasingly steep lapse rates, as cold air floods eastwards aloft (500 hPa temps below -25C), relative warm SSTs below will create sufficient instability to support scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over sea but which will drift onshore at times across western coastal areas of Britain over the next 24hrs. A shortwave trough in the jet stream close to the far S of England running east along the English Channel / N of France is forecast to force a more organised area of convection in an environment of stronger deep layer shear in association with the jet stream. Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms look to graze southern coastal counties of England Tuesday morning as they run east across the English Channel and eventually into the far N of France during the afternoon. Hail and intense rainfall leading to localised flooding is possible with these showers / storms. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out, given some strong low-level shear is modelled during passage of the trough."

Issued by: Nick Finnis.

Then it will be all eyes on this 'fella, waiting in the wings on Thursday, for our Region:

It's not expected to be strong enough to warrant naming but it still has the potential to deepen further. 

It'[s certainly one to keep an eye on.

But it certainly look to remain unsettled, wet and windy at times.

Regards,

Tom Q.  

The models and the professionals seem to have totally misjudged the northward extent of the convection/rain today, some quite heavy rain indeed from embedded line convection in Shepherds Bush currently!

Edit: although I just saw the yellow warning for the South East that was issued earlier, so perhaps not that unexpected

Edited November 14, 2023 by daveinSB
Met Office warning

[moogyboobles]

The wood pigeons in the garden are really enjoying this rain.

Lifting up their wings above their heads, apparently this is what they do to wash (I googled, wondering what they were doing). Like a power shower! 

[Jimmyh]

Well it has been hammering it down for about an hour here in Baker Street

 

[Froze were the Days]

Why are Novembers so continually rubbish! hammering it down here...little variation, rain, rain, brief dry day, wind, rain, rain...no frost! aaarrggghhhhhh!!

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, daveinSB said:

The models and the professionals seem to have totally misjudged the northward extent of the convection/rain today, some quite heavy rain indeed from embedded line convection in Shepherds Bush currently!

Edit: although I just saw the yellow warning for the South East that was issued earlier, so perhaps not that unexpected

Computer models have failed miserably again on precipitation forecasts, as the rain in the south was not showing up yesterday…..

[ANYWEATHER]

This was yesterday’s output for today and also today’s output… 

[Matty88]

Found it a bit odd how the Meto were shouting from the rooftops about Thunderstorms this morning - in reality its just been a big blob of rain. Just seemed odd for this time of year? And so it proved... dull rain the order of the day! Hmmm...

Back from my summer hibernation btw ready for the winter fun and games  

[Freeze]

After heavy rain most of this morning, the sun has finally come out! ☀ 

[Harry's House]

37 minutes ago, Freeze said:

After heavy rain most of this morning, the sun has finally come out! ☀ 

Same here, horrible driving back from Tenterden just after mid day. Saw a rainbow shortly after the sun came out. 

[Lauren]

Absolutely vile weather.

Falls into one of two categories:

1. Not leaving the house, fire on, copious amounts of warm drinks.

2. Venture out to find cosy country pub with roaring log fire and a hearty pub dinner.

These are the only acceptable uses of this weather.

[pinball wizard]

8 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

This was yesterday’s output for today and also today’s output… 

Weirdly the output from yesterday was more accurate than the other run 

[Kent Blizzard]

Been a nice day working outside compared to yesterday. I'm not looking forward to the cold rain onslaught tomorrow though!!

We really need some prolonged dry weather.

[Kentspur]

Will the Met Warning be off a bit tomorrow surprised it doesnt cover more of our region tomorrow! On Tuesday it started hammering down here for nearly an hour at midday when the initial warning was due to expire! Now im not even in the warning area tomorrow

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Will the Met Warning be off a bit tomorrow surprised it doesnt cover more of our region tomorrow! On Tuesday it started hammering down here for nearly an hour at midday when the initial warning was due to expire! Now im not even in the warning area tomorrow

I flipping am. Fed up with all this rain now lol.

[Mark wheeler]

2 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Will the Met Warning be off a bit tomorrow surprised it doesnt cover more of our region tomorrow! On Tuesday it started hammering down here for nearly an hour at midday when the initial warning was due to expire! Now im not even in the warning area tomorrow

Yayy downgraded for us it seems .

 

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[danm]

The rain is staying south of the river at the moment. Dry here in north London. 
 

Im pleased obviously, but if this were a snow event I’d be pulling my hair out. 

Edited November 16, 2023 by danm

[lassie23]

winter weather in the UK is such drivel

[pinball wizard]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

winter weather in the UK is such drivel

Yep. I dont suffer from S.A.D. though I know some on here do, that said I've found myself longing for a period of high pressure and some dryness and sun. I didn't think I'd ever utter these filthy words but even a Bartlett would be better than what we've had to endure for the last six weeks

[Hotspur62]

After a damp morning with steady rain starting from about 8.30 -12.30(although not as heavy as Tuesdays rain) it is slowly drying up but it has a raw cold feel today and max we hit was only 7.1  and is very dark today light wise

 

edit: just started raining again as I type️

 

a right proper miserable day!!

[snowrye]

2 hours ago, pinball wizard said:

Yep. I dont suffer from S.A.D. though I know some on here do, that said I've found myself longing for a period of high pressure and some dryness and sun. I didn't think I'd ever utter these filthy words but even a Bartlett would be better than what we've had to endure for the last six weeks

Wash your mouth out at once ha ha, never mention that word again

[lassie23]

 

2 hours ago, pinball wizard said:

Yep. I dont suffer from S.A.D. though I know some on here do, that said I've found myself longing for a period of high pressure and some dryness and sun. I didn't think I'd ever utter these filthy words but even a Bartlett would be better than what we've had to endure for the last six weeks

One model, I think the GFS was showing a northerly but quickly dumped it in favour of more tripe similar to the last 6 weeks lol

[Reefseeker]

A wet and miserable afternoon here, 8 degrees and raining. My son forgot his coat to walk along the river to the cinema in Kingston and he got so cold, I ended up buying him a discount hoodie!

[MAF]

Am working in Cheltenham next week and looking at the 10 dayer it seems to be same as London. Usually it's cooler up that way and i was hoping to see a decent fog/frost while up there.

Very clear and bright here this morning after a chilly damp start. 

[Freeze]

Very changeable week so far down here, one day persistent rain and wind, the next blue skies. Again more rain and wind tomorrow after todays blue skies and light winds.