Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Crack out the barbies, peeps!?   

Prefer the chance of sledges in winter, 15c isn’t really BBQ weather!! 

[weathercold]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Prefer the chance of sledges in winter, 15c isn’t really BBQ weather!! 

Cold to the east totally absent by the 3rd…looks like we’ve missed a big opportunity to tap into what would have been a deep freeze. Northerly topplers  simply doesn’t cut it for most in mid winter.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Cold to the east totally absent by the 3rd…looks like we’ve missed a big opportunity to tap into what would have been a deep freeze. Northerly topplers  simply doesn’t cut it for most in mid winter.

Yeah it’s a pretty weak affair at day 6, maybe the Alaskan ridge can work it’s way round to Central Canada and force the PV and cold over the pole and in our direction, making those PM air masses much more potent!! 

[PiscesStar]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Crack out the barbies, peeps!?   

thankfully not too long a mild spell looking at gfs outputs

[Cold Winter Night]

Comparing at 144h, UKMO and GFS have the same general pattern, but UKMO makes more of the amplification, both in the Atlantic and the Arctic.

Later on, GFS is hemispherically completely different from its 6z run, but continued amplification attempts and a weak Atlantic are a common theme.

[Ali1977]

Day 10 and look at those temps in the USA, very warm!! Warm USA can lead to deep cold into the U.K. so maybe that’s what this run will show in deep FI.

This incoming northerly could have some sting.

Edited December 28, 2021 by Ali1977

[MJB]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’d rather have winter in winter and spring in spring ……

And if you can't have Winter in Winter , have it in Spring  

12c and wet or the BFTE errrrrrrmmmmmmmm lol

[Bradley in Kent]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 and look at those temps in the USA, very warm!! Warm USA can lead to deep cold into the U.K. so maybe that’s what this run will show in deep FI.

 

 

 

 

Potentially was was apparently the case in Jan 1987 and Feb 1991. However I wouldn't bank on it as that is quite a temperature gradient and would liven up the jetstream like in 2013/14 for instance. 

[minus10]

 

Looks interesting, even though FI, Trough digging down on gfs12z

 

Vortex moving closer on hemisphere view

 

 

 

Interesting developments...

[minus10]

Yes....well the GFS painting a picture of very changeable/unsettled and sometimes colder spell after the mild few days. 

[Nick F]

Looks like too much energy to sustain amplification and all but the briefest of northerlies on GFS in a week's time - as a strong jet stream extends out from NE Canada and east out over the North Atlantic next week, fuelled upstream by a steep temperature gradient between frigid cold over Canada and warm air further south over the USA. Looks pretty volatile and stormy the pattern thereafter though, with potential for further cold incursions on the back of deepening lows if the jet stream moves far enough south as GFS suggests. But not a pattern that suggests sustained cold in the 1st half of January.

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, Don said:

I agree and my view is that unless we see something favorable develop soon within the strat, the likelihood is that winter 2021/22 will be another mild one.  Trouble with getting cold in late February and into March, we need something exceptional for us all to benefit like in 2013 and 2018.

  How interesting this is the UK Met office long range models did say this would be a mild winter well that forecast was released many people scoffed at the met long range model now again we see that there long range model could call it right yet again.

[northwestsnow]

16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looks like too much energy to sustain amplification and all but the briefest of northerlies on GFS in a week's time - as a strong jet stream extends out from NE Canada and east out over the North Atlantic next week, fuelled upstream by a steep temperature gradient between frigid cold over Canada and warm air further south over the USA. Looks pretty volatile and stormy the pattern thereafter though, with potential for further cold incursions on the back of deepening lows if the jet stream moves far enough south as GFS suggests. But not a pattern that suggests sustained cold in the 1st half of January.

January 1984 was very disturbed and very snowy locally...

Little prospect of Any blocking our side of the NH though...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm thinking some of these systems pushing through could bring colder interludes on there back edge especially if that bit further South! One thing that looks more certain is the fact that after a very mild week we do drop colder next week.

Just noticed the Exeter update looks a little more punchy regarding further ahead...and a colder spell being flagged up towards the 2nd week of Jan bringing the risk of snow!!@ snow god dam it...snow! Then perhaps colder with frost towards the backend of the month...thats much better than the constant mild and wet prognosis the other day!

Let's get this week out of the way and perhaps get something a little more favourable beyond that.

Edited December 28, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Don]

1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

  How interesting this is the UK Met office long range models did say this would be a mild winter well that forecast was released many people scoffed at the met long range model now again we see that there long range model could call it right yet again.

Not only the UK Met Office, the majority of long range models went for a mild winter, with only the BCC and JMA really going for something colder.  It was the same scenario for winter 2020/21 and the BCC and JMA ended up being closer to the mark than the other models.  That's what gave some hope (from the long range model perspective) in the lead up to this winter, albeit a chance the BCC and JMA could well be wrong this time!

Edited December 28, 2021 by Don

[fromey]

54 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Potentially was was apparently the case in Jan 1987 and Feb 1991. However I wouldn't bank on it as that is quite a temperature gradient and would liven up the jetstream like in 2013/14 for instance. 

Here you go just to prove your point!

[Don]

12 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm thinking some of these systems pushing through could bring colder interludes on there back edge especially if that bit further South! One thing that looks more certain is the fact that after a very mild week we do drop colder next week.

Just noticed the Exeter update looks a little more punchy regarding further ahead...and a colder spell being flagged up towards the 2nd week of Jan bringing the risk of snow!!@ snow god dam it...snow! Then perhaps colder with frost towards the backend of the month...thats much better than the constant mild and wet prognosis the other day!

Let's get this week out of the way and perhaps get something a little more favourable beyond that.

Yes, a definite step in the right direction from Exeter today!

[minus10]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

Here you go just to prove your point!

The gold standard of cold snowy weather. That was a classic forecast from Ian McCascil. Dont know whether we will ever see that again. ..

[Catacol]

40 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looks like too much energy to sustain amplification and all but the briefest of northerlies on GFS in a week's time - as a strong jet stream extends out from NE Canada and east out over the North Atlantic next week, fuelled upstream by a steep temperature gradient between frigid cold over Canada and warm air further south over the USA. Looks pretty volatile and stormy the pattern thereafter though, with potential for further cold incursions on the back of deepening lows if the jet stream moves far enough south as GFS suggests. But not a pattern that suggests sustained cold in the 1st half of January.

Yes agreed unfortunately. Sustained cold looks long odds. Something fairly substantial will need to change if the direction of travel is to be altered. First half of January? At least.

[booferking]

Early December was primed for cold blocked weather heading into xmas the EC46 etc screaming for it along with other drivers and what did we get nationwide very little only for a selected few, January screaming almost the opposite can the weather make fools of us again absolutely it does what it wants all the models and drivers can be fooled like ourselves. 

[Jeremy Shockey]

GEM 12z for 4th Jan

GEM is similar to GFS @ t174 but with colder uppers. ( UKMO looks like it would look fairly similar too if it went a bit further )

24 hour Northerly toppler looks quite likely 

[Lloyd1]

Everyone just remember these models / forecasters got the Christmas forecast completely wrong. Therefore, I still remain optimistic regardless of what both say, you never know in this game. We are still early in winter with jan / feb being coldest months so just relax a bit. Yes, I will still be reviewing models / forecasts out of enjoyment but it will be with a pinch of salt due to their winter incompetence. 

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, booferking said:

Early December was primed for cold blocked weather heading into xmas the EC46 etc screaming for it along with other drivers and what did we get nationwide very little only for a selected few, January screaming almost the opposite can the weather make fools of us again absolutely it does what it wants all the models and drivers can be fooled like ourselves. 

Although just about everyone got the Xmas weather wrong I think that comment wrong/misleading

 

[Mariescb]

1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

  How interesting this is the UK Met office long range models did say this would be a mild winter well that forecast was released many people scoffed at the met long range model now again we see that there long range model could call it right yet again.

Could being the operative word, seen as we are many weeks away from anyone or any organisation being congratulated on calling this winter right. Will be an interesting post mortem indeed come April.

[Guest]

Atlantic trough driven weather with a couple of northern topplers inbetween feels the firm horse for January. As others have mentioned the energy coming out of the states is far too strong. 

That equates to very wet followed by colder rain, followed by a frost followed by more wet weather - rinse and repeat.

Wouldn't be surprised to see this repeat well into February.