Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021

[Lukesluckybunch]

rather mild looking ECM nothing wintery on offer,the PV wont let go! stuck on a high with its centre just to the south of us!

[Chesil View]

7 hours ago, Tamara said:

It wasn't wrong - if the usual eccentric deterministic and ensemble distractions that enrapture this thread (as reviewed in tandem with this product) are ironed out.

 The UK heights leading to diffused Icelandic/Greenland heights c/o decelerated -ve zonal wind anomalies within that region was fully advertised (correctly) by NWP in accordance with the diagnostic initial momentum transport from the tropics c/o the high frequency tropical wave advancing across west of the dateline and AAM tendency rising sharply accordingly

Subsequent to that, and as also documented accordingly in this thread amidst the hysteria - there has been a boost to the Hadley cell at the same time as organisation of the polar field profile has reversed polar rossby wave transport poleward (again explanations given) and made a subtle but acutely disparate impact to the Northern Annular mode to what was potentially anticipated from earlier in December and the run up to the festive period..

Just because wintry impacts were far less than whipped up on this thread for a small island within the context of a very large northern hemisphere, doesn't mean that the equivalent macro-scale pattern numerical modelling was wrong.

Hi Tamara 

I,m bow to your superior knowledge of the dynamic atmospheric workings. Which as always is explained with a high degree of technical analysis.

Although I'm unclear as to how that same  model's  suggested temp anomalies for the period 27th Dec -3rd Jan (as posted by Battleground snow further up the thread) translate into a very mild post xmas week and a record breakingly warm new years eve and new years day. With even the most lenient of interpretation..

Although not giving us the UK coldies what we really want I trust the the suggested Euro High on the current Nwp brings you the balmy Iberian winds that you enjoy.

 

 

 

[mb018538]

Happy New Year to all. Had a bit of a break from posting as I felt like needed it....plus Omicron got its filthy paws on me just after Xmas so I've been relaxing in isolation. Thankfully nothing more than a sore throat and a stinking cold for a few days. Being in my 30s, good health and covid jabs doing their thing to spare me the worst thankfully.

Back to the weather...



We've been here before. A bloated sluggy, cloudy high. The lack of sunshine in the last 12 months has been utterly depressing.

 

[mulzy]

There are quite a few tasty GEFS in the day 10-15 range.  Something to watch perhaps?  The mean eps though not as good suggesting something similar.

So possibly a cold northerly or north-westerly in the offing?

[Ali1977]

12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

There are quite a few tasty GEFS in the day 10-15 range.  Something to watch perhaps?  The mean eps though not as good suggesting something similar.

So possibly a cold northerly or north-westerly in the offing?

You’re right, the PV is really shot to bits on most of the ENS!! A few from T348 below. I just wonder if we’ll get lucky, when we maybe don’t think we will. 

[PiscesStar]

17 minutes ago, mulzy said:

There are quite a few tasty GEFS in the day 10-15 range.  Something to watch perhaps?  The mean eps though not as good suggesting something similar.

So possibly a cold northerly or north-westerly in the offing?

Yes, I think with the ebb and flow of the pattern, we could get some high retrogression... 

[Frosty.]

9 hours ago, offerman said:

Spot on Jon. 

Ditto the 0z ecm…this winter is plumbing new depths!  

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

You’re right, the PV is really shot to bits on most of the ENS!! A few from T348 below. I just wonder if we’ll get lucky, when we maybe don’t think we will. 

There always is within the 31. Until the mean shows the pv east of here it’s a hope not a trend for me but we always live in hope.

[Howie]

8 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Ditto the 0z ecm…this winter is plumbing new depths!  

Come back in July please 

[offerman]

11 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Ditto the 0z ecm…this winter is plumbing new depths!  

Certainly is Jon.   Not looking great at all . 

[carinthian]

16 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Yes, I think with the ebb and flow of the pattern, we could get some high retrogression... 

I hope so. Models always seem to show promise out at day 10 and beyond and then default nearer the time. Never seems to happen when milder prognosis charts shown that far out ! Any consolation much of Europe as well having to put up with these dismal winter synoptics in the offering. Maybe tomorrow will be a better day for us long suffering coldies, who continue to wait patiently for winter to start ?

 

C

[Nick F]

Morning. Been advertised by models and ens guidance for a while the build of heights/pressure in the vicinity of the UK, though it looks like it won't gain enough latitude and position favourably to bring in colder continental air, rather it will be drawing in mild Atlantic air across the UK.

It is what is and so, after the chilly blip this week, the hunt for cold looks oh so futile this morning. 

High pressure near or over the UK is not such a bad thing if we are in a holding pattern, even if doesn't position favourably initially, IF we do get some amplification working through from upstream later this month, it could allow the high to gain latitude to bring a more favourable patterrn to bring cold. The continued deep troughing signal to our east in day 10-15 GEFS mean is intriguing, as it suggests a split of the TPV which remains disconnected to the SPV, but we are a way off seeing whether we get the necessary amplification to get the right evolution to a colder pattern. 

For the medium term the TPV looks tightly wrapped up and unwilling to unravel its bottled up cold. Perhaps time to spend catching up on other things. My twitter feed is full of snowy scenes in the USA - which makes current model watching all the more painful and worth taking a break from!

[Mair Snaw]

48 hours ago i had my heating off and house windows open... this morning ive woken to this... just goes to show how quickly things can change.. 

[mathematician]

3 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

48 hours ago i had my heating off and house windows open... this morning ive woken to this... just goes to show how quickly things can change.. 

How is this related to the thread "model discussion"? If at all it should be moved to some of the regional forums. And btw 90% of us has seen nothing of that, so it's even a bit out of line.

[Mair Snaw]

1 minute ago, mathematician said:

How is this related to the thread "model discussion"? If at all it should be moved to some of the regional forums. And btw 90% of us has seen nothing of that, so it's even a bit out of line.

Its to show that no matter what the models say it can turn around rather quickly so all the winters over or nothing in January posts are pointless.. oh and this is my first fall of snaw this winter.. i didnt get a white xmas... but i didnt come on here moaning about it..

[carinthian]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Morning. Been advertised by models and ens guidance for a while the build of heights/pressure in the vicinity of the UK, though it looks like it won't gain enough latitude and position favourably to bring in colder continental air, rather it will be drawing in mild Atlantic air across the UK.

It is what is and so, after the chilly blip this week, the hunt for cold looks oh so futile this morning. 

High pressure near or over the UK is not such a bad thing if we are in a holding pattern, even if doesn't position favourably initially, IF we do get some amplification working through from upstream later this month, it could allow the high to gain latitude to bring a more favourable patterrn to bring cold. The continued deep troughing signal to our east in day 10-15 GEFS mean is intriguing, as it suggests a split of the TPV which remains disconnected to the SPV, but we are a way off seeing whether we get the necessary amplification to get the right evolution to a colder pattern. 

For the medium term the TPV looks tightly wrapped up and unwilling to unravel its bottled up cold. Perhaps time to spend catching up on other things. My twitter feed is full of snowy scenes in the USA - which makes current model watching all the more painful and worth taking a break from!

I think Nick, that is our best hope. The forecast team over here still think the Scandinavian trough will eventually sink into Europe and provide more decent winter charts. Its all a matter of timing and currently would appear to be a long drawn out process but hopefully a more favourable shift of the high pressure could speed up that process. In the meantime, the frustration continues.

C

[Premiere Neige]

6 minutes ago, mathematician said:

How is this related to the thread "model discussion"? If at all it should be moved to some of the regional forums. And btw 90% of us has seen nothing of that, so it's even a bit out of line.

Message added by Paul, December 23, 2021

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

As you can see, "some chat is ok" so no need to jump on people. 

[weathercold]

A quick scan of the models this morning make for depressing reading if like me you’re a coldie. It’s more of the same sadly…rinse and repeat. Heights simply aren’t being allowed to build to our north which is what we really need for any sustained cold for our shores.

I mentioned a day or so ago the picture for the next 10 days or so overall is mild. Aside from a couple of chilly days (not cold for Jan Uk wide) it’s back to mild, cloudy weather for many. 12 degrees early next week for much of the south as we approach mid winter…not much more to say.

I’m not seeing any building blocks setting up for Jan (for cold) Quite the opposite sadly.

Changeable conditions, mild and cloudy interspersed with brief cooler interludes which last a couple of days at most before being overrun from the west. 
 

This winter promised so much in Nov and early December…we couldn’t be further from that point right now.

Most will be hoping an SSW can at least give us something resembling winter into Feb. Personally I’d rate chances at 20% right now…of course it’s possible but unlikely in my opinion. We have another 5-6 weeks of winter proper before the sun gets stronger and the days longer…it’s very much now or never to save this winter from another mild one to add to the bucket loads of recent years.

The clock is ticking …..

Edited January 4, 2022 by weathercold

[PiscesStar]

2 minutes ago, weathercold said:

A quick scan of the models this morning make for depressing reading if like me you’re a coldie. It’s more of the same sadly…rinse and repeat. Heights simply aren’t being allowed to build to our north which is what we really need for any sustained cold for our shores.

I mentioned a day or so ago the picture for the next 10 days or so overall is mild. Aside from a couple of chilly days (not cold for Jan Uk wide) it’s back to mild, cloudy weather for many. 12 degrees early next week for much of the south as we approach mid winter…not much more to say.

I’m not seeing any building blocks setting up for Jan (for cold? Quite the opposite sadly.

Changeable conditions, mild and cloudy interspersed with brief cooler interludes which last a couple of days at most before being overrun from the west. 
 

This winter promised so much in Nov and early December…we couldn’t be further from that point right now.

Most will be hoping an SSW can at least give us something resembling winter into Feb. Personally I’d rate chances at 20% right now…of course it’s possible but unlikely in my opinion. We have another 5-6 weeks of winter proper before the sun gets stronger and the days longer…it’s very much now or never to save this winter from another mild one to add to the bucket loads of recent years.

The clock is ticking …..

Yes it is and as gfs is showing the pattern is hard to break out of... Relentless low pressure from USA which at the same time is enjoying lots of snow and a large chunk of the PV.. NO SURPRISES THERE. Jet stream is up north when we need it way down south... Doesn't bode well without a resurgence of energy from the high which has been the story of this winter so far.... Will it.... Can it....  

[Paul]

Locking this one now, new thread here:

 

Edited January 4, 2022 by Paul